187
FXUS63 KGID 162359
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected beginning sometime this evening and
  continuing into the overnight period. Large hail and damaging
  winds are the main threats.

- Strong to severe storms are again possible tomorrow mainly
  during the evening and early overnight hours. Large hail and
  damaging winds will be the main threats.

- The heat will become a concern Friday and Saturday with
  temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees. Heat
  index values will mainly range from 100 to around 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper ridge extends from northern Mexico up towards Kansas and
southern Nebraska. A shortwave trough in the upper flow will move
over the area this afternoon into tonight. A cold front has began to
push into western and northern portions of Nebraska this afternoon.
Atmospheric lift is being enhanced along the front and shortwave
trough. Dewpoint temperatures across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas are in the 60s. A surface trough
will be present ahead of the cold front with winds mostly out of the
south. Lift and instability will be enhanced along this surface
trough. High to very high surface CAPE values will be across the
area with values increasing to the northwest along the surface
trough. Mid-level lapse rates and wind shear will also be fairly
high. Thunderstorms are expected to develop, possibly as early as
around 4 PM and as late as 9 PM, and will continue across the area
into the overnight hours. Severe storms are expected given the
previously mentioned conditions. Damaging winds and large hail will
be the main threats although there is a slight chance (around 20%)
of an isolated tornado or two.

There is some uncertainty in the models as to when convection will
start to develop and possibly where it will develop first. One hi-
res model shows a line of storms developing around 5 PM from Greeley
County southwest to Dawson County and moving southeastward through
the evening. This models shows most, if not all, of the storms out
of the area by 2 AM. Another hi-res model shows storms just
beginning to enter Valley County around 9 PM with other storms
moving in from the northwest through the overnight hours. This model
shows storms still ongoing during the morning hours. High
temperatures today will range from the lower to upper 90s. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

An upper trough will begin moving over Nebraska and Kansas on
Tuesday. Showers and storms may still be ongoing, especially across
north central Kansas, Tuesday morning. There is also some model
uncertainty in regards to timing and placement of convection on
Tuesday. Some models start storm development in the afternoon while
others hold off until evening with a line of storms that sweeps in
from the west. Tend to think that any storm development in the
afternoon will be weaker and the main storms will impact the area
during the evening and possibly overnight hours. One hi-res model
shows storms developing across the area during the early evening
hours then a line of storms moving in from the west through the rest
of the evening into the overnight hours. Strong to severe storms are
expected on Tuesday, especially during the late afternoon through
evening hours. The area of greatest threat for severe storms on
Tuesday will be north central Kansas and along the Nebraska-Kansas
border while instability will be highest. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main threats with these storms although an
isolated tornado or two is possible. High temperatures Tuesday will
be in the mid 70s to mid 80s and low temperatures Tuesday night will
be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms may remain across eastern
portions of the area on Wednesday (15% to 25% chance); otherwise,
Wednesday is expected to be mostly dry. Winds will be mostly out of
the north across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas on Wednesday with temperatures warming up into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Winds will switch to to south to southwest
Wednesday night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. An
upper ridge will extend northward into Kansas and Nebraska on
Thursday with winds across the area strengthening out of the south
to southwest. Mostly sunny skies will be present with temperatures
warming up into the low to mid/upper 90s. Low temperatures Thursday
night will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. The upper ridge will extend
from the Gulf Coast northward over Nebraska and Iowa on Friday. The
ridge will become more amplified on Saturday extending towards the
Great Lakes. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the hottest
days so far this season with highs in the mid 90s to around 105
degrees. Heat index values across the whole area will mainly be
in the triple digits ranging from 100 to around 105. The upper
ridge shifts a little further east on Sunday with temperatures
across the area cooling slightly.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Significant weather: Strong-severe thunderstorms with high wind
gusts possible 03-06Z at both terminals.

Tonight: Rather complex scenario possible late this everning
into the overnight. Current expectation is for clusters of
thunderstorms to congeal NW of the terminals next few hours,
then roll E/SE towards the Tri-Cities in the 03-06Z time frame.
Thunderstorms will likely be on the strong side, and could be
severe, with wind gusts of 45-55kt the primary concern -
particularly along the leading edge. Behind this cluster after
06Z, it`s highly uncertain what the sensible weather will be -
both in terms of observed weather/CIGs AND wind speed/direction.
Some models depict scattered convection lingering over or nearby
through around dawn, whereas other guidance is mainly dry with a
variable or E/NE wind ~10kt and VFR conditions. Will maintain
some PROB30 groups for -TSRA in the 06-12Z time frame, with
potentially the strongest activity capable of brief dips to MVFR
CIGs/VSBYs. Overall confidence is medium through 06Z, then LOW.

Tuesday: Uncertainties linger into Tuesday as sensible weather
conditions will depend greatly upon how things play out tonight.
There`s at least a chance (20-40%) that some MVFR stratus could
unfold at some point in the morning and continue into early
aftn...but haven`t gone this low just yet considering the
uncertainty. Otherwise, expect at least SCT to BKN mid to high
clouds much of the day. Conceptually, would expect a break in
the rain/storms for a good chunk of the AM- early aftn, before
perhaps another round develops/moves in for the late aftn and
evening. Timing/coverage/placement with this is also very
uncertain, so only PROB30 for now. It`s possible any convection
could hold off until closer to/after sunset Tue eve. Winds may
be quite variable in the AM, but expect mainly NE-E flow to
develop by midday. Confidence: VERY LOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Thies