865
FXUS63 KGID 020610
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
110 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances will continue to decrease through the
  evening/night with drier conditions expected Tuesday.

- Back to back cold fronts on Wednesday and Friday will
  reinforce cooler temperatures with highs staying between the
  upper 60s to low 80s through Thursday and the mid 60s and 70s
  Friday and beyond.

- A handful of low-end precipitation chances lie Wednesday
  (15-30% for the eastern half of the area), Thursday night
  (20% for far southeastern areas) and Saturday & Sunday nights
  (15-30% for the southern half of the area).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025


Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday


An almost repeat scenario of Sunday this afternoon as temperatures
approach the upper 60s to mid 70s for areas that find themselves
socked in under cloud coverage and with areas approaching the upper
70s to low 80s that have a few breaks in the clouds (primarly more
southern and western locations). In terms of precipitation, a few
showers still remain sprinkled about as the system churning over
eastern Nebraska spirals a few more bands of light rain showers
across primarily the eastern parts of the area. Precipitation
chances, concentrated towards the east, will begin to decrease
through the rest of the day and night with drier conditions picking
things back up Tuesday.

Other than a few outliers close to the HWY-81 corridor, most places
should not expected to receive any more meaningful precipitation
with amounts no greater than 0.1". The other factor tonight will be
the chance for more fog to form overnight again given the
continuation of the light and variable winds, though the fog this
past morning underachieved our expectations. If fog does develop,
visibilities could drop as low as 1 to even 1/2 of a mile in a few
spots.

Conditions tuesday, as mentioned before, are expected to be dry with
the return of sunny skies for all during the afternoon and evening
hours. Highs for the day are expected to range the mid 70s to low
80s with light and variable winds retaining through the day.


Long Term...Wednesday and Beyond


The next big change up in the synoptic pattern will occur Wednesday
as a upper-level low dives into the midwest. A cold front a the
surface will drag down a cooler and drier airmass situated
underneath this system. Slightly stronger northerly winds
establishing behind the front should help offset any solar/diurnal
warming for the week with highs expected to remain between the upper
60s to low 80s through Thursday. A secondary push as an embedded jet
max passes overhead later on Friday will offer a secondary
reinforcing cold front. Lows in response Wednesday and Friday night
could drop as low as the mid 40s to low 50s. High temperatures
Friday through at least Sunday will remain in the mid 60s and 70s.

Beyond the temperatures for the week, precipitation chances remain
fairly minimal, though chances are not completely zero. A few
scattered storms could pop out along the primary frontal passage
Wednesday, however, the best chances (only 15-30%) are reserved for
the eastern half of the area. A few other small precipitation
chances lie Thursday night (15-25% for far southeastern areas) and
both Saturday and Sunday nights (15-30% for the southern half of
the area).

Though today starts the first day of Meteorological Fall, the
equinox to mark the actual start of astronomical fall is still 21
days away. In all, conditions may feel more like the fall this week
rather than late Summer with drier conditions and temperatures below
average favored to bleed into early next week as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds and precipitation):
This period will feature two distinct aviation
regimes...starting with high confidence MVFR/IFR (and possibly
LIFR for a time?) in low clouds and some fog through these first
12 hours or so, followed by a high-confidence return to VFR
through at least the vast majority of the latter 12 hours.
Precipitation-wise, there is a low (only 10-20%) chance of a
spotty shower/thunderstorm late this afternoon/early evening,
but this chance is currently deemed too low for TAF inclusion.
Winds will not be much of an issue throughout the period, with
sustained speeds largely at-or-below 6KT and direction fairly
variable through much of the period before trending more
consistently southerly late in the period.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
Although confidence is very high in sub-VFR (mainly MVFR/IFR)
conditions through at least the first 12 hours, the main
uncertainties include whether things tend to favor more toward
the MVFR side of things, or perhaps deteriorate more solidly
toward low-end IFR or even LIFR (especially with regard to
ceiling. Right out of the gate, MVFR ceiling/VFR visibility
prevails at both KGRI/KEAR. However, latest guidance strongly
suggests at least IFR ceiling/MVFR visibility will prevail
especially 09-15Z, and have maintained a TEMPO group from
previous TAFs for LIFR ceiling potential focused 09-13Z. That
being said, confidence in LIFR is only considered "medium" at
this time. As for the return to VFR as low clouds gradually lift
and scatter out...this could potentially be as early as 17-18Z,
but have opted to lean a bit slower with 06Z TAFs and delay
outright-VFR until 20Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Pfannkuch