866
FXUS63 KGID 180537
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1137 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A handful of light showers is possible (20-25% chance) north
  of I-80 tonight between midnight and 5AM.

- Highs this week beyond Tuesday (upper 40s to upper 50s) and
  Friday (Mid to upper 40s), should range between the mid 50s
  to low 60s.

- Precipitation chances near the end of the week will peak
  Thursday night into Friday morning. PoPs have jumped up to 20-50%
  for South Central Nebraska and up to 50-60% for North Central
  Kansas. The greatest confidence lies towards the south.

- This Thursday/Friday system could deposit up to 0.5-1" of
  precipitation across our North Central Kansas areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025


Tonight (Monday) through Wednesday...

The low that we have been monitoring across the last few days now
sits across Southeastern Wyoming and the western panhandle of
Nebraska as of this afternoon. This system has already deposited a
few bursts of sprinkles across some of Central Nebraska today with
potentially a few more light showers to come later tonight (for a
few areas near and north of I-80). This low across the next few
hours will continue its journey eastward and through the rest of the
Central Plains region. The latest models (particularly the HRRR &
RAP) have recently flip-floped their guidance regarding the
intensity and coverage of the systems`s wrap around showers tonight.
We suspect that now only a handful of places near and north of I-80
could receive one of these brief light showers between midnight and
5AM tonight. Most areas, however, are likely to stay dry.

Fog overnight tonight can`t be ruled out as a majority of the HREF
ensemble members paint a broad NNW to SSE swath of fog developing
across our the central 2/3rds of the area. A few places of dense fog
may be possible and will be monitored closely for the need to issue
any dense fog advisories or special weather statements. The low-
level clouds left behind tomorrow morning should retain through the
rest of the day with northerly winds setting up behind the system.
Together, these features will impact highs, keeping temperatures from
escaping the upper 40s and 50s. The wind directions becoming
southerly with a few break in the clouds Wednesday will allow highs
to return back to the upper 50s to low 60s.


Thursday and Beyond...

The feature of note in our long-range forecast will be the presence
of a deep trough climbing through the Rockies Thursday. As this wave
approaches the Central and Southern Plains, a weak surface cyclone
will likely spinup near Oklahoma. Recent path projections of this low
has nudged its trajectory towards a more eastward rather than a
northeastward track. Because of this flatter forecast path, there is
a little more question today of how far north its rain bands will
actually stretch. The 12z GFS run shows the edge of the precipitation
bands halting near the state line while the 12z ECMWF is slightly
more generous, pushing the bands of precipitation up into the first
few far southern counties of Nebraska.

Given this setup, the coverage of precipitation will likely end up
having a sharp northward cutoff of accumulation amounts. The NBM,
used to define our PoPs, may be more on the generous side for
Central Nebraska (20-50% best confidence south). The winners, by
all means, should be our north Central Kansas areas that are
currently projected to see anywhere between 0.5-1" of moisture by
the end of the day Friday.

Timing wise, the earliest precipitation could enter our far southern
extent would be Thursday morning, with the highest confidence window
late Thursday night into Friday morning. The forecast keeps the
majority of the precipitation falling as rain with a low end chance
for a few short-lived mixed precipitation possible if the rain
bands venture north of I-80 during the early AM hours on Friday
(places that could see temperatures approaching to just below
freezing for a few AM hours).

Besides the precipitation chances, highs should hold steady in the
mid 50s to low 60s through the weekend, with a quick dip in highs on
Friday. Excessive cloud coverage paired with steady north-
northeasterlies will keep highs from exceeding the mid to upper 40s
Friday afternoon. Over the weekend, a cutoff low forming off the
southeast U.S. coast, could eventually rejoin the upper-level
flow early next week. This possible disturbance would be the next
feature in line to offer the area its next shot a precipitation
near the middle of next week (potentially our first season snow).
That is if it is able to propel itself into the Central Plains. We
keep our tabs for now open on this disturbance, though so far
there has not been enough consistency between model runs to give
us the need to prepare our snow boots quiet yet.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR to LIFR conditions expected at KEAR during TAF period. IFR
conditions expected at KGRI during TAF period. MVFR-IFR Fog and
low stratus are expected through the mid-morning hours. The
densest fog will impact KEAR, with visibilities below 1 mile at
times. KGRI could also see fog, though IFR/LIFR visibilities are
uncertain at this time. Stratus will become MVFR by the mid-
late morning hours, persisting through around sunset. Around
sunset, ceilings raise to VFR, though another round of fog is
possible Tuesday night. Northerly winds around 10kts are
expected Tuesday afternoon, becoming light and variable Tuesday
night.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-072>075.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels