074
FXUS63 KGID 052345
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
645 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory continues for north central Kansas and
  portions of south central and central Nebraska until 8 PM this
  evening.

- Showers and storms are expected to develop/move into the area
  from the west late tonight and may continue through much of
  the day on Sunday.

- Some of the storms this afternoon into this evening and again
  may become strong to marginally severe with hail up to quarter
  size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

- Increased chances of showers and storms (up to a 60% to 70%
  chance) will be present Monday evening into Wednesday with a cold
  front.

- Heat index values of 100+ degrees are expected each afternoon
  Sunday through Tuesday with values possibly reaching 105
  degrees on Tuesday for isolated areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

An upper level ridge is over the central part of the country
extending from Texas to North Dakota. An upper trough is centered
over the Pacific Northwest with another upper trough over the
northeast part of the country. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas are generally out of the
south to southeast at around 5 to 15 MPH with gusts as high as 20
MPH. High temperatures today will generally range from the low 90s
to the upper 90s. Heat index values will generally range from the
mid 90s to around 106 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8 PM this evening for north central Kansas and portions of
south central and central Nebraska. Low temperatures tonight will
range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Some showers and storms may move
into/develop across north central Kansas this afternoon. Otherwise,
showers and storms may develop (up to around a 50% chance) or move
into western portions of the forecast area later tonight (beginning
around 4 AM). There is a low risk of strong to marginally severe
storms this afternoon into this evening and again tonight with hail
up to quarter size and wind gusts up to around 60 MPH.

Additional development and eastward expansion of showers and storms
is expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Additional showers and
storms may again develop Sunday evening across portions of the area.
High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be slightly cooler (by
around 2-3 degrees) than today with upper level heights decreasing
slightly. Heat index values on Sunday are expected to range from the
lower 90s to around 102 degrees. South to southeast winds are
expected at around 5 to 15 MPH with gusts as high as 20 to 30 MPH
during the afternoon. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be
similar to the previous night. Temperatures will warm up a little on
Monday from the previous day as a surface trough strengthens across
the area. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the low 90s to
near 100 degrees. Heat index values are expected to be in the mid
90s to around 104 degrees. Winds will increase Monday afternoon out
of the south to around 15 to 30 MPH with gusts up to near 40 MPH in
some areas. Low temperatures Monday night (upper 60s to upper 70s)
will be warmer with mostly cloudy skies and higher wind speeds.
Showers and storms may impact parts of the area beginning Monday
evening/night in advance of a cold front (up to a 60% chance). Some
of these storms may become strong to severe.

A cold front is expected to move into the area on Tuesday with high
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to around 101 degrees. Heat
index values from around Highway 6 and southward may range from
around 100 to 105 degrees. Low temperatures Tuesday night are
expected to range from the low 60s to the low/mid 70s. A surface
high will be across the area on Wednesday with high temperatures in
the low 80s to low 90s. Highs on Thursday will be similar to those
on Wednesday. Temperatures will warm up some on Friday as a surface
trough strengthens across the area. Shower and storm chances
continue Tuesday through Friday with the highest chances Tuesday
into Wednesday (up to 70% chance).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday morning between ~09z
through 17z (~4:00 AM CDT - ~12:00 PM CDT), with KGRI`s storms
likely to be ~1 hr behind storms arriving near KEAR. Storm
coverage looks to be broken in nature, so any storms in the
vicinity would still be capable of impacting the airport
terminals, however confidence in a precise time remains too low
to put any one section as TSRA in the TAF. Should any cells
impact the terminals directly, brief reductions in visibility
and ceiling heights could lower flight rules below VFR, but
precisely where and when will be highly dependent on where the
heavier storm cores go over. Storms are largely favored to keep
ceilings above 3,000 ft. Surface winds will remain mostly
from the SE around 5 kts, with VRB added during highest-
likelihood storm hours. A few gusts to 15 kts will be possible
late afternoon on Sunday before some returning sub-VFR clouds
arrive. Have added a PROB30 for KGRI indicating chances for
storms in this timeframe.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ049-063-064-
     074>077-083>087.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Began