513
FXUS63 KGID 041743
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms continue across the area this
  morning. Localized flooding from Wednesday`s storms continue
  into the mid- morning hours.

- Scattered storms possible during the afternoon-evening hours.
  A few of these storms could be strong-marginally severe
  capable of producing hail to quarter size and wind gusts
  around 60mph.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the area
  during the late afternoon-evening hours on Friday. Large
  hail, damaging wind gusts and localized flooding is possible
  with these storms.

- Above normal temperatures expected through the end of the
  forecast period with scattered chances for storms continuing
  into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Update...

A decaying complex of thunderstorms has departed the area, with
Scattered showers ongoing across much of the area. Earlier day
thunderstorms produced widespread rainfall mainly along and south of
I-80, with localized areas receiving 2-4 inches and as much as 5"
(Osborne). While flooding in these areas is expected to linger into
the mid-morning hours in part due to lingering rain, the
overall lighter rate of rainfall early this morning should not
significantly add on to any ongoing (or soon to be ongoing)
flooding.

Two areas of rain are expected to impact the area through the
morning hours. The first is the aforementioned rain across mainly
central/southern portions of the area. Models have struggled to
depict this area of rain, bringing some uncertainty how long the
ongoing rain will linger. Given current trends, this area of rain
will likely linger through the early morning hours. The second area
of storms, a broken line across north central-northeast Nebraska, is
beginning to move into northwestern portions of the area. The
coverage of this band looks to be more limited, mainly impacting
northwestern portions of the area.

HREF members support an MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) developing
over western Kansas early this morning. This MCV brings another
round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms to south/southwestern
portions of the area around sunrise. Storms continue to move east
across the area this morning, mainly impacting areas along/south of
I-80. The amount of instability in place this afternoon is uncertain
given the expected cloud coverage from showers/storms. If some
sunshine is able to break through the clouds, or storms are are less
widespread than currently forecast, then 1000-2000 J/Kg of CAPE
should develop over the area. In this weekly capped environment,
storms redevelop during the mid-late afternoon hours across
southeastern portions of the area. Shear remains fairly weak, but a
few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe. Storms,
regardless of coverage/strength, are favored to depart
east/southeastern portions of the area this evening, with dry
weather expected Thursday night-Friday morning.

Temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s on Friday. A low sits
over the area Friday afternoon with an associated triple point
setting up over some portion of the forecast area. The exact
location of this will impact storm potential on Friday. Regardless,
CAPE values of 3000+ J/Kg are likely to develop over the area,
resulting in a conditionally unstable environment. The cap is likely
to erode sometime during the late afternoon-evening resulting
in explosive thunderstorm development. Shear will once again be
a limiting factor, though 25-30kts of shear would be supportive
of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. Storms exit the
area during the overnight hours as a cold front moves through.
Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track with above
normal temperatures expected through the end of the forecast
period, with scattered chances for showers/storms this weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Many of the details of the next few days` weather will be rooted
in subtleties that develop on a day-to-day basis. There will be
some features that focus thunderstorm development a bit more
readily, and there will be some severe potential and heavy rain
potential in several regimes in the coming days, depending on
your location and the evolution of subtle features that develop.

Current Synopsis and Anticipated Large Scale Evolution:

A decaying convective complex just clipped the far northern
counties in our central NE coverage area this morning as the
outflow dropped south of Ord and a few showers developed to the
north. That outflow boundary is now slowly retreating back north
and is expected to exit the forecast area but linger in north
central NE into the afternoon hours, growing increasingly
diffuse over time. South of the outflow, southerly winds and
mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm nicely, but
at mid day, we`re beginning to see the influence of a moisture
flow off the Gulf, into the High Plains, and then northeast
into this region. Water Vapor imagery indicates a pretty
unimpressive overall mid level flow pattern, but with a well-
developed short wave trough meandering northward out of far
northeast New Mexico. Ahead of this trough, the moisture profile
is fairly deep with some showers and thunderstorms in the
moisture plume. Surface dewpoints are climbing into the 70s in
central KS so there is a fair amount of instability developing,
and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
northeastward this afternoon around time of max heating. There
is also a north-south oriented pseudo-dryline in western KS with
some enhanced convergence which is also expected to act as a
focus for afternoon convection today. Finally, another area of
surface low pressure in South Dakota has a cool front extending
southwest from it, and will stall out from the Nebraska
Panhandle into central SD later today, acting as another
convergence region and focusing mechanism for thunderstorm
development this afternoon.


As we progress into tomorrow and Friday, we`ll see a combination
of potential outflow boundaries from convective complex
development to our north, along with ill-defined frontal
boundaries left over from existing systems as the New Mexico
short wave slowly drifts northeast across the area...but these
will become better defined fronts as we progress into Friday and
a short wave trough with an attendant mid-level speed maximum
moves across northern Nebraska. Slight ridging develops for
Saturday before we transition into a more dominant western CONUS
trough and southwesterly flow aloft with embedded short wave
troughs by Sunday into next week.

Daily Hazard Potential:
For today, we`ve already got scattered thunderstorms developing
as the advancing moisture plume and weak mid level cooling from
the trough overspread an unstable boundary layer. At the current
time, it appears there could be one or two storms that become
strong enough to produce isolated severe hail or downbursts, but
the overall severe threat this afternoon is on the low end. Mid
level lapse rates are unimpressive, and deep layer wind shear is
unimpressive as well, so overall storm organization is unlikely.

As the evening progresses, we`ll want to watch the two areas of
more widespread convective development expected along the weak
dryline/front in western KS and along the cold front to our
northwest. Expect more linear development in these areas in the
presence of slightly more favorable vertical wind fields. This
would favor conglomeration of cold pools into one or two
convective complexes. The most recent CAM guidance favors one
system tracking east across the forecast area, particularly
favoring areas near/south of I-80, in the mid to late evening
hours, with another tracking southeast out of SD and perhaps
clipping northern parts of the forecast area late evening to
early morning. There is a good amount of most unstable CAPE
present in advance of these systems, and the 0-2 km shear vector
may actually favor some elements of forward propagation where
the cold pool is deep and strong enough to continue forcing
parcels through the inversion. But again the lapse rates above
that inversion are not especially steep which may limit overall
intensity with eastward progression. All told, see some
potential for pockets of damaging wind this evening into early
morning, depending just how aggressive these storm complexes can
get.

On Thursday, we`ll be closely monitoring the location of any
outflow boundaries and the role they map play in enhancing
convective development, as well as the potential for some
training of storms with heavy rain near boundaries. With the
compact short wave trough moving directly over the local
forecast area, scattered showers and thunderstorms look like a
good bet off and on during the day...so another question will be
if we`re able to develop pockets of stronger instability through
any areas of sunshine during the day. If instability can
develop, the combination of vertical vorticity, favorable low
level wind profiles, and low LCLs suggest we would have to be on
the lookout for a few rotating storms on the eastern flank of
the center of the trough. This is a low-end potential at the
moment, but one to watch. Otherwise, there are some favorable
heavy rain parameters in place, and any areas of training storms
could end up with some isolated flooding potential.

Friday is a day to watch as the mid and upper flow intensifies a
bit from the west while a short wave trough axis crosses the
region late in the day and a surface low pressure trough extends
from southwest to northeast through the area. Mid level lapse
rates will steepen dramatically with the westerly mid-level
flow, and naturally the deep layer shear profile becomes much
more favorable for storm organization as well. Thus anticipate a
broken line of supercell thunderstorms to develop in the
vicinity of the surface trough axis where boundary layer
convergence is maximized. Storm motion would favor an east
southeast trajectory early on, with the low level shear becoming
pretty sharply enhanced as the LLJ intensifies. So this could
end up being a "magic hour" scenario when a few of the more
isolated storms may be able to produce very large hail or
tornadoes before cold pools congeal and push out to the east.
Storm mode will be key, and the previous evening`s convection
could play quite a role in how it all plays out. Friday is
definitely a day to watch though.

Saturday looks warm and mostly dry. Sunday again features a
meandering short wave trough with quite a bit of moisture
present in the region. This would seem to be another favored day
for scattered thunderstorms, although with limited instability
and shear probably wouldn`t be particularly intense. Then severe
potential amps up again by mid to late week with the western
trough taking better shape and sending impulses into the
Central/Northern Plains at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A compact upper level disturbance will continue sliding NE
through the area this afternoon, at this point looking to keep
better chances for showers/storms largely east of the terminal
areas, esp. KEAR. Can`t rule out some activity coming close to
KGRI this afternoon, kept a tempo group going. Satellite imagery
showing lower level clouds lingering around the area early this
afternoon, potential for MVFR ceilings (potentially flirting
with IFR) will continue for at least a few more hours, with VFR
conditions later this afternoon into at least part of the
evening hours. Models showing the potential for sub-VFR
conditions to return later this evening-overnight...kept things
MVFR at this point, not out of the question lower conditions may
develop...will see how things trend and adjust in upcoming
forecasts. Some question whether it`d be driven more by low
stratus or potentially fog. Overall winds through the period
remain on the lighter side, topping out around 10-15 MPH.
Direction remains generally SErly this afternoon...may be more
variable later this evening/overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087.
KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ006-007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...NWS Hastings
AVIATION...ADP