652
FXUS63 KGID 061143
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
543 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly through 7-8 AM, a smattering of elevated thunderstorms
  could still develop/redevelop over primarily some of our
  northern Nebraska counties (mainly along/north of I-80). Small
  hail cannot be ruled out, but marginal severe weather (quarter
  size hail) seems increasingly-unlikely.

- While thunderstorm coverage will be fairly sparse this
  morning, widespread drizzle/fog will persist across much of
  our forecast area (CWA). Although not expected to be overly-
  widespread in coverage, some places will see dense fog
  (visibility down to around 1/4 mile) through around 8-9 AM.

- Except for some continued drizzle/light stratiform rain, the
  majority of our CWA will likely be fairly "quiet" mid-morning
  through mid-afternoon as a well-defined cold front pushes
  through from north-to-south.

- Our next main focus is the potential for a rapid development
  of a few strong/severe storms mainly in our far southeast CWA
  along/just behind the cold front...perhaps as early as 2-4 PM.
  These would mainly be large hail/damaging wind producers, but
  perhaps with a brief tornado threat if they can remain near-
  surface based.

- Any possible near-surface based storms should vacate eastward
  out of our CWA by 4-5 PM, but another threat for strong to
  perhaps marginally-severe elevated storms could develop over
  counties along/east of Hwy 281 mainly 5-8 PM (perhaps hail up
  to quater size?) before these also vacate east of our CWA.

- In the wake of thunderstorm issues, we`ll need to keep a wary
  eye on mainly the northwest 1/2 of our CWA (mainly NW of a
  Beaver City-Grand Island-Osceola line) for a quick hit of
  wintry weather (potential mix of light freezing
  rain/sleet/snow) mainly 6 PM this evening-3 AM Saturday. Not
  enough confidence in travel impacts to consider a formal
  Advisory at this time, but cannot rule out some slick spots
  and reduced visibilities in wind-blown snow.

- BEYOND TONIGHT: The vast majority of the remainder of the
  7-day forecast looks dry and seasonably-mild (we`re currently
  carrying only some fairly "iffy" chances for mainly rain Tues-
  Tues night). High temps most days 50s-60s, with some 70s most
  favored Sunday-Monday. At this time, our only concern is near-
  critical fire weather conditions (greatest area coverage
  likely Sunday).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

-- FORECAST CHANGES WORTH MENTIONING, BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, AND
 ANY ABBREVIATED LONGER-TERM FORECAST NOTES (FOR BEYOND
 SATURDAY):

- Up front note: For those needing "only the basics" of the
various thunderstorm, fog and wintry weather concerns over these
next 24 hours, please refer to the admittedly-unusually-long KEY
MESSAGES listed above (and our also unusually-long-but-detailed
Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID).

- Needless to say, the vast majority of weather concerns through
  the next 7 days are right away these first 24 hours (will
  cover these in a bit more detail below). While this forecaster
  feels that we are gaining a bit more confidence in the
  potential severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-early
  evening mainly in our far-southeastern forecast area (perhaps
  a bit more of a mainly large hail/damaging wind threat than it
  appeared 24 hours ago), whether or not we see enough wintry
  precipitation accumulation/impacts on the backside of the
  system this evening-tonight to perhaps warrant a limited-
  lead-time Winter Weather Advisory is still a bit uncertain.
  Clearly any higher amount/higher confidence winter impacts
  will focus slightly west-through-northwest of our CWA
  (including counties that WFO LBF currently has in a formal
  Advisory).

- In the longer term, the single-biggest/most noticeable
  forecast change is that high temps for both Monday-Tuesday
  came down several degrees (highs more 60s than 70s), as both
  the ECMWF/GFS are suggesting a push of slightly cooler air
  behind a modest cold front.


-- DETAILED FOCUS ON THE SHORTER-TERM/NEXT 36 HOURS (through
 Saturday daytime):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 AM:
It took quite a while to get going (earlier in the night all
thunderstorm activity focused at least slightly off to the
south-through-east of our CWA), but finally within the last
couple of hours we`ve finally seen spotty development of
relatively weak storms within our northern counties...mainly
along/north of Highway 92. Although the overnight hours had been
touted for a few days now as carrying a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) for a few severe storms, so far radar indicates that
nothing more than spotty small hail has occurred with the
strongest storms. There is enough elevated instability (CAPE)
mainly within the 850-700 millibar layer to support marginally-
severe storms (at least 1000-1500 J/kg), but effective shear has
been on the weaker side (mainly no more than 20-30KT...helping
keep storm intensity in check.

Meanwhile, as was fully expected, nearly our entire CWA has seen
fairly widespread light drizzle develop overnight, along with
varying degrees of fog. While most areas are seeing fairly light
fog, a transient area of denser fog (visibility as low as 1/2 to
1/4 mile) has lifted north with a somewhat-well-defined warm
front overnight, with the greatest concentration of densest fog
at this hour mainly between I-80 and the KS border.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, water vapor
satellite imagery and short-term model data clearly reveal a
deep/large scale trough centered from the Four Corners northward
along the Rockies, with our Central Plains region experiencing
deep southwesterly flow in advance of this trough. As already
touched on, the majority of overnight convection has
concentrated at least slightly south-through-east of our CWA,
more along the nose of the nose/exit region of a fairly strong
south-southwesterly low level jet.

On the latest surface map, a roughly 1000 millibar low pressure
is centered over northwest KS, with an inverted trough
axis/effective warm front extending east-northeast from the low
and mainly through the heart of our Nebraska CWA. As a result
of this warm front lifting north, our KS counties are seeing
more of a southerly wind (and improving visibilities), while our
nebraska counties (especially south of I-80 so far) have seen
breezes turn more easterly with increasing fog (including some
dense). Meanwhile, a well-defined cold front is dropping south
through northern/western Nebraska.

Through sunrise, low temps are on track to bottom out in the
low-mid 50s across most of our CWA, except for colder 40s
slipping into our far northern/west-central counties by 6-8 AM
behind the invading cold front.


- REST OF THIS MORNING:
Through mainly no later than 6-8 AM, we could see spotty
showers/mainly weak storms continue to try flaring up within
counties along/especially north of I-80. Still cannot completely
rule out a small hail threat, but confidence in seeing anything
truly marginally-severe is waning given the aforementioned
weaker effective shear (although this could strengthen a bit
closer to sunrise). Beyond

Otherwise this morning, areas of drizzle will persist mainly
north of the aforementioned warm front, and more concerningly, a
transient, generally west-southwest to east-northeast oriented
band of dense fog (visibility as low as 1/2 to 1/4 mile) will
focus just north of the front as it continues lifting slowly
north (currently dense fog reporting at
Hastings/York/Aurora/Cambridge airports and also observed here
at the office). Have not completely ruled out the possibility of
issuing a short-fuse Dense Fog Advisory this morning, but given
that truly dense fog should last no more than 2-4 hours in any
given location, might hold off an highlight with a Special
Weather Statement (SPSGID). As the warm front/associated fog
lifts north, the aforementioned cold front will steadily sink
southward into our CWA, entering far northern/west central
counties by 6-8 AM, and then reaching down to roughly a
Phillipsburg-Geneva line by noon. In the wake of this front,
breezy north winds will gust 20-30 MPH, quickly scouring out any
fog that exists ahead of it (any truly dense fog expected to be
gone from our CWA by around 8-9 AM).


- THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING (through around 8 PM):
The primary surface low pressure center will slowly-but-surely
track eastward through central KS this afternoon, with the
aforementioned cold front perhaps temporarily slowing its
southward progress a bit as it invades deeper into our far
southeastern CWA. While most of our CWA will see nothing more
than patchy drizzle/spotty light rain from mid-morning through
early-mid afternoon, a narrow corridor of strong-to-severe
thunderstorms COULD really ramp up quickly in our far
southeastern CWA especially 2-5 PM along/just behind the
advancing cold front. In our CWA, this mainly concerns the
following counties per the last few HRRR runs (along with 00Z
RRFS): Nuckolls, Thayer, Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne. Although the
degree of truly surface-based instability could me muted by
stubborn low clouds, any brief clearing poking up into this area
could allow the far northwestern fringes of at least 1000-1500
J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE to interact with a healthy 50-70KT of
deep-layer wind shear, prompting a narrow corridor of intense
thunderstorm development. At least briefly, storms could assume
supercell characteristics and maybe even try to produce a brief
tornado. However, the slowly-advancing cold front should tend
to "undercut" these updrafts fairly quickly, allowing more of a
linear/cluster mode to become dominant. The main hazards with
any severe storms will be hail up to around golf ball size/gusts
to around 60 MPH.

While the main severe storm threat should vacate our far
southeast counties by around 6 PM, especially 6-8 PM could see
a renewed flare-up of "last gasp" elevated storms perhaps as far
west as around Hwy 281, as the main mid level shortwave trough
impinges into our area and meets up with modest elevated CAPE
perhaps as high as 500-800 J/kg. These storms would mainly
produce sub-severe hail and/or sleet before they depart our
eastern CWA around/shortly after 8 PM.

In other departments this afternoon-early evening, it will be a
blustery day behind the advancing cold front (north winds
gusting 25-35 MPH), with slowly-falling temps. Official daytime
highs are currently aimed from upper 40s-low 50s far northwest,
to mid-upper 50s central, to well into the 60s-low 70s
southeast, but keep in mind that already by 3 PM the majority of
our CWA will already have fallen into the 30s-40s behind the
front.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (mainly after 8 PM):
Once convection exits "stage right", our attention quickly turns
to the northwest 1/2 of our CWA (mainly NW of a Beaver City-
Grand Island-Osceola line), as southwest-northeast band of
precipitation on the back side of the upper wave will encounter
increasingly-cold air in the low-levels/at the surface.
Unfortunately, models are still not in great agreement regarding
how heavy/organized this band of wintry precipitation might be
within OUR northwestern CWA (it will surely be a bigger issue
slightly off to our west-through-north). As a result, we are
officially calling for a rather minor round of wintry precip, as
an initial brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet turns to
snow, before gradually departing our northern CWA mainly 12-3
AM. Officially, our latest forecast is similar to previous,
calling for up to a few hundredths of freezing rain/icing, and
no more than a half-inch of snow. While this could be just
enough to cause some slick roads and reduced visibility in
wind- blown snow, confidence in legitimate travel impacts is
still lacking to justify a formal Winter Weather Advisory (next
few shifts will need to keep monitoring this).

Otherwise, the late-night hours will remain rather breezy out of
the northwest (gusts 20-30 MPH). Although skies will start
clearing late in the night as we get behind the mid level trough
axis, these elevated winds should keep temps from truly
"tanking", and have lows aimed mid 20s-low 30s.


- SATURDAY DAYTIME:
Not NEARLY as much to discuss here! Under sunny/mostly sunny
skies, this will simply be a somewhat-breezy but seasonable day,
with high temperatures still aimed mainly mid 50s most areas.
The first part of the day will be overall-windest out of the
northwest (sustained 15-20 MPH/gusts up to around 25 MPH).
However, winds will ease up a bit during the afternoon as
direction turns more westerly and eventually more southwesterly
by early evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper level trough is over the western part of the country with
the leading edge of the trough over the central Plains. A lee
surface trough is across western Nebraska and eastern Colorado.
Breezy south to southeast winds are across south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Temperatures across the area are
currently in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tonight are expected
to range from the mid 30s to mid 50s. The upper level trough will
move closer to the region tonight with upper lift increasing
overhead. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of
Nebraska and Kansas tonight. Initial thunderstorm development is
expected to be this evening but will mainly be south and east of the
forecast area. Additional development may occur across northern
portions (mainly north of the Tri-Cities) of the forecast area late
tonight. Storms may become strong to severe tonight, especially
south and east of the area with better instability present. Hail up
to the size of quarters is possible tonight mainly east of Highway
281. Fog will again be possible (60% to 70% chance) tonight but is
not expected to be quite as dense or widespread as this morning.

The upper trough will begin to move over the northern and central
Plains on Friday with a cold front pushing into the area. There is
still uncertainty in regards to the timing of this front and amount
of heating in advance of the front. These uncertainties have
resulted in a wide range of possible high temperatures for Friday
across the forecast area. High temperatures across northern portions
may only be in the 40s with southern portions possibly in the 70s.
There is a threat of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening
mainly along and east of Highway 281. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats. Snow is also possible beginning late
Friday afternoon and continuing through Friday night across most of
south central and central Nebraska and portions of north central
Kansas. There is uncertainty as to how much of the area will receive
snow due to uncertainties in how long the precipitation will last
into Friday night as well as how fast temperatures will drop across
the area. There is fairly high confidence (around 70%) that areas
northwest of the Tri-Cities may experience at least a trace of snow.
Generally expect any snow accumulations to be a half inch or less.
Low temperatures in the 20s and low 30s are expected Friday night.

High temperatures Saturday will mainly be in the 50s with a surface
high nearby. Temperatures will be on a warming trend Sunday and
Monday with highs on Sunday in the 60s and 70s and highs on Monday
in the 70s. A cold front is expected around Tuesday or Wednesday of
next week with precipitation possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Sub-VFR ceiling will likely persist through at least the vast
majority of the period, with sub-VFR visibility in fog and/or
light drizzle persisting through at least the majority of this
morning. The latter half of the period this evening-overnight
could bring a chance for brief showers/thunderstorms to mainly
KGRI, followed by a chance for a few hours of a light wintry mix
changing to snow at both sites (little to no accumulation
expected). Winds will remain light for a few more hours, but
then become moderately-breezy out of the north-northwest through
the remainder of the period (gusts commonly 25-30KT.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details:
Starting off early this morning, LIFR ceiling is entrenched at
both KGRI/KEAR in the presence of light drizzle and at least
light fog. Hour-to-hour visibility is of lower confidence over
the next few hours, and could range anywhere from brief LIFR
(mainly KEAR) to MVFR. As winds pick up behind a passing cold
front later this morning, visibility should improve to at least
MVFR, then go outright-VFR by around 18Z and through much of the
remainder of the period. However, periods of
precipitation...especially if any snow moves in later this
evening primarily 03-09Z...could again result in at least MVFR
visibility at times. Getting back to ceiling, have taken a
"middle ground" approach especially 18Z onward...splitting the
difference between the lowest-conceivable categories and the
best-case guidance scenario. The net result is prevailing MVFR
conditions advertised through most of the period beyond 18Z.
However, toward the very end of the period (by 09-10Z),
confidence is increasing in a return to at least low-end VFR
ceiling as skies begin to clear more aggressively.

- Wind details:
For a couple more hours (through 14-15Z), a light speed/variable
direction regime will prevail ahead of an approaching cold
front. This front is expected to arrive into KGRI/KEAR around
14-15Z, with an abrupt switch to moderately-strong north-
northwest winds that will then persist through the remainder of
the period (commonly sustained around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch