711
FXUS63 KGID 181133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
533 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog (at times dense) is possible through sunrise across northwestern
  portions of the area.

- Widespread cloud coverage will keep temperatures cooler
  today, with highs in the mid 40s (north) to mid 50s (south).

- Another round of fog (potentially dense) is possible tonight
  for central-southwestern portions of the area.

- The next chance for rain arrives Thursday-Friday, with the
  highest chances and accumulations across north-central Kansas.
  Areas north of I-80 may not see much if any rain.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Update...

Patchy fog, at times dense, is ongoing across northwestern portions
of the area. Visibility below 1 mile is possible in dense fog.
Temperatures near freezing combined with fog could result in a
few slick spots on roads and sidewalks. A Dense Fog Advisory is
in effect until 8am, but would not be surprised if it is
canceled early if fog continues to be patchy/dissipates.
Scattered rain along the backside of a departing surface low is
expected to exit eastern portions of the area by sunrise. Most
of the area will sit under low stratus today keeping
temperatures cool, in the mid 40s to low 50s. Far southwestern
portions of the area (Cambridge to Osborne) should see at least
some sunshine, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Light easterly winds bring another chance for fog Tonight-Wednesday
morning. The best chances for fog tonight will be across central and
southwestern portions of the area. HREF members support areas of
dense fog developing, though differ on how widespread fog/dense fog
is. Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Wednesday, as an
upper level trough moves over southern California. Despite lingering
cloud coverage, the southerly flow will help temperatures climb into
the 50s to low 60s. A weak shortwave within the broader troughing
aloft may bring a few showers to far southeastern portions of the
area Wednesday night (Osborne to Hebron).

Otherwise the forecast remains largely on track for the second half
of the work week-weekend. A low will move out of New Mexico and into
the Plains on Thursday, briefly stalling over northern OK, before
shifting east into the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Models
continue to keep the best chances for rain along and south of the
NE/KS border, with the GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a fairly
sharp south to north gradient in the probability to see 0.10" or
more of rain. Areas along and north of I-80 may not see much if any
rain if trends continue. Seasonable temperatures are expected
Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 40s/50s. Sunshine and warmer
temperatures return this weekend as highs climb into the upper 50s-
low 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025


Tonight (Monday) through Wednesday...

The low that we have been monitoring across the last few days now
sits across Southeastern Wyoming and the western panhandle of
Nebraska as of this afternoon. This system has already deposited a
few bursts of sprinkles across some of Central Nebraska today with
potentially a few more light showers to come later tonight (for a
few areas near and north of I-80). This low across the next few
hours will continue its journey eastward and through the rest of the
Central Plains region. The latest models (particularly the HRRR &
RAP) have recently flip-floped their guidance regarding the
intensity and coverage of the systems`s wrap around showers tonight.
We suspect that now only a handful of places near and north of I-80
could receive one of these brief light showers between midnight and
5AM tonight. Most areas, however, are likely to stay dry.

Fog overnight tonight can`t be ruled out as a majority of the HREF
ensemble members paint a broad NNW to SSE swath of fog developing
across our the central 2/3rds of the area. A few places of dense fog
may be possible and will be monitored closely for the need to issue
any dense fog advisories or special weather statements. The low-
level clouds left behind tomorrow morning should retain through the
rest of the day with northerly winds setting up behind the system.
Together, these features will impact highs, keeping temperatures from
escaping the upper 40s and 50s. The wind directions becoming
southerly with a few break in the clouds Wednesday will allow highs
to return back to the upper 50s to low 60s.


Thursday and Beyond...

The feature of note in our long-range forecast will be the presence
of a deep trough climbing through the Rockies Thursday. As this wave
approaches the Central and Southern Plains, a weak surface cyclone
will likely spinup near Oklahoma. Recent path projections of this low
has nudged its trajectory towards a more eastward rather than a
northeastward track. Because of this flatter forecast path, there is
a little more question today of how far north its rain bands will
actually stretch. The 12z GFS run shows the edge of the precipitation
bands halting near the state line while the 12z ECMWF is slightly
more generous, pushing the bands of precipitation up into the first
few far southern counties of Nebraska.

Given this setup, the coverage of precipitation will likely end up
having a sharp northward cutoff of accumulation amounts. The NBM,
used to define our PoPs, may be more on the generous side for
Central Nebraska (20-50% best confidence south). The winners, by
all means, should be our north Central Kansas areas that are
currently projected to see anywhere between 0.5-1" of moisture by
the end of the day Friday.

Timing wise, the earliest precipitation could enter our far southern
extent would be Thursday morning, with the highest confidence window
late Thursday night into Friday morning. The forecast keeps the
majority of the precipitation falling as rain with a low end chance
for a few short-lived mixed precipitation possible if the rain
bands venture north of I-80 during the early AM hours on Friday
(places that could see temperatures approaching to just below
freezing for a few AM hours).

Besides the precipitation chances, highs should hold steady in the
mid 50s to low 60s through the weekend, with a quick dip in highs on
Friday. Excessive cloud coverage paired with steady north-
northeasterlies will keep highs from exceeding the mid to upper 40s
Friday afternoon. Over the weekend, a cutoff low forming off the
southeast U.S. coast, could eventually rejoin the upper-level
flow early next week. This possible disturbance would be the next
feature in line to offer the area its next shot a precipitation
near the middle of next week (potentially our first season snow).
That is if it is able to propel itself into the Central Plains. We
keep our tabs for now open on this disturbance, though so far
there has not been enough consistency between model runs to give
us the need to prepare our snow boots quiet yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Patchy fog at KEAR will periodically result in LIFR conditions
over the next few hours. Fog looks to stay west of KGRI. Have
kept a 6SM BR prevailing group with a 1SM tempo group as it fog
will likely bounce between VFR and LIFR. MVFR stratus is
expected to move into KGRI/KEAR during the mid-morning hours.
There remains uncertainty how quickly stratus clears this
afternoon. Have introduced at TEMPO group this afternoon as it
may switch between MVFR and VFR before transition to VFR by the
evening. VFR ceilings are favored overnight. Late in the TAF
period, Fog is possible at KGRI/KEAR, but confidence in
visibility is too low to introduce sub-VFR conditions at this
time. Have indicated this potential with a 6SM BR FEW003 group.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for NEZ039-040-
     046-047-060>062-072>075.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Davis