158
FXUS63 KGID 011149
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beyond a few scattered lingering light showers this morning
  into this afternoon, one final band of "heavier" rainfall
  rates could deposit up to 0.5-1" more of precipitation across
  portions of north central Kansas mainly late this morning to
  early afternoon.

- Though the threat for additional meaningful rainfall has
  concluded for most of central Nebraska, flooding concerns will
  remain in place for several locations that may lie near banks
  of rivers or streams (especially for locations along the
  Solomon, Republican or Little Blue rivers). Water-levels can
  still continue to rise even after precipitation comes to an
  end.

- After this evening, the rest of the 7-day forecast is dry.

- Highs will mainly range the 60s to low 70s through Monday with
  temperatures possible to return to the mid to upper 70s
  Tuesday/Wednesday next week. Overnight lows in the 40s will be
  expected tonight and Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026


Across the last 24-hours at least 90% of the forecast area have seen
rainfall amounts of at least 1-3" with locally higher rainfall
amounts (as high as 4-6+") falling across a few portions of north
central Kansas and a few Nebraska locations mainly south or east of
the Tri-Cities. Though most of the heaviest bands of precipitation
have moved east and out of the local area, a few scattered showers
may still linger about for a small period of time tonight and for
mainly the first half of the day Thursday. The surface low centered
across Kansas will continue to shift eastwards, pulling these outer
bands of scattered showers along with it. As result, far northwest
portions of the area should find their precipitation chances ending
earlier in the morning/day with north central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska areas being the last locations for precipitation to
completely come to and end. Some heavier showers may redevelop
across portions of mainly north central Kansas with up to 0.5-1"
more inches of precipitation possible to accumulate during mainly
the late morning to early afternoon hours. Beyond any rogue shower
this evening, the forecast remains dry through the weekend and
beyond.

Despite the fact that precipitation rates and chances are on the way
down, the Flood Watch remains in effect for several counties (likely
to chance through the day along with the flooding threat). The
flooding threat has not yet come to an end, especially for the south
and eastern half of the area (locations that have collected 3-6+" of
precipitation). Several rivers and streams have recently and will
continue to rise as ground water collects into drainage basins. The
potential for flooding along the banks of some rivers and streams,
especially for portions of the Solomon, Republican and Little Blue
rivers, will be possible even after the precipitation comes to an
end. Please refer to the latest flood advisories/warnings for the
most up to date flooding information.

Besides the precipitation, one may be able to notice the
introduction of north to northeasterly surface winds behind the
system today. This feature will kelp keep highs from exceeding the
60s for both today and Friday. In addition, overnight lows in the
40s will be expected to be widespread both tonight and Friday night.
Sunny skies will also be expected to make their return by either the
end of the day today for mainly the northwest half of the area or by
Friday for the remainder of the area. The clearing skies will come
as higher pressure filters in behind the exit of this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Tornado/Wind Threat This Evening...

A northward lifting warm front could make it as far north as
Osborne/Mankato/Hebron by this evening. There will be at least a
limited tornado threat along and south of this warm front given
strong low level wind shear (0-1km SRH 250-350 m2/s2) and
marginal instability (500-1500 J/KG). Limiting severe weather
factors will be extensive cloud cover limiting overall
instability and widespread precipitation shield lacking the
more severe conducive discrete convection. A few breaks in the
clouds across southern Kansas will likely expand into central
Kansas, but it is unlikely that we will see any breaks in the
clouds across north central Kansas, which will limit instability
and severe potential. Am not really concerned about hail in
this more tropical set up. Our primary tornado threat will be
near and south of that warm front (Osborne to Hebron) between
4-11PM. Given the tropical environment our boundary layer will
likely remain unstable for several hours after sunset allowing
for tornado threat to persist after dark. Thunderstorms will
likely not display very impressive reflectivity signatures, but
given the strong shear and low cloud bases we will have to keep
a close eye on possible velocity rotation signatures.


Heavy Rain/Flooding Threat...

We have been hitting on this heavy rain/flooding threat for
several days. The heaviest/majority of the rain will fall over
the next 6 to 12 hours (3-11pm). The rain will first increase
in intensity across Kansas and then lift north into southern
Nebraska as we head through the evening. The heaviest rain is
most likely south of an Osceola, Doniphan, Holdrege line.
Along and south of that line we expect widespread 1-3" rainfall
amounts. However, the bigger concern is the potential for
training thunderstorms resulting in localized very heavy
rainfall amounts as high as 4-7". These heaviest amounts will
be very limited in area, but of significant impact. Many
forecast models hint at training storms with localized high end
amounts over 5". Given the recent heavy rain over the past week
and saturated soil conditions across much of the area, areas
that do realize these highest amounts (4-7") could see
considerable flash flooding. Anyone along or south of the above
mentioned line should at least be prepared for the possibility
of these localized higher end amounts.

The rain will gradually diminish and end in many areas after
midnight. We could see some rain redevelop across mainly Kansas
during the day on Thursday, but of less intensity that today.
Technically the Flood Watch will continue into Thursday, but
may end early across Nebraska zones if current forecast trends
continue. There could be ongoing flooding from tonight that
persists in some areas for several days. Additional rainfall
amounts on Thursday will be heaviest across Kansas (0.25-1.00")
and lightest across Nebraska (generally 0-0.25").


Friday through Wednesday...

Not going to spend much time on this period as the weather
generally becomes quiet with mainly dry and seasonably cool
conditions. There is good confidence that most days through
Monday will see highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. We do expect slightly warmer conditions Tuesday
through the end of next week (upper 60s - mid 70s) but with
higher uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ongoing IFR-MVFR stratus should gradually break up towards late
morning or early afternoon, with VFR conditions expected
thereafter. Any additional shower chances this morning are too
low/isolated to include at this time. Given the recent rainfall,
may see some isolated, shallow ground fog late tonight into
Friday morning.

Winds will increase out of the NE and become breezy today, then
fall back to light and variable after sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ064-075>077-084>087.
KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies