573
FXUS63 KGID 191146
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact
  portions of the local area today. Severe weather is not
  anticipated, and most areas will see less than one half inch
  of additional precipitation.

- Enjoy the cool weather today as temperatures are expected to
  rebound back to near normal on Thursday, and peak next Monday
  and Tuesday when widespread heat index values over 100 degrees
  are anticipated.

- Various small chances for thunderstorms are expected across
  the local area through early next week, although widespread or
  severe weather is not anticipated. In fact, after today, many
  areas may actually remain dry through the remainder of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms is setting up from
Furnas through Greeley counties this morning. With minimal
instability in place (less than 500J/KG), severe weather today
is not anticipated with this or any additional development
today. And while just about any location could be clipped by a
scattered shower/thunderstorm throughout the day, additional
rainfall totals will be on the lighter side, with most locations
seeing less than a quarter to half an inch of additional
rainfall accumulation. The most notable aspect of today will
likely be the well below normal temperatures for mid-June, with
the cloud cover and occasional shower/thunderstorm activity
keeping afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s across south
central Nebraska to the lower 70s across our south. While this
will make it the coolest afternoon for most folks in almost
exactly a month, afternoon temperatures will still be well above
record cool maximum temperatures for the date (which are in the
upper 50s for both Grand Island and Hastings).

For tonight...expect the cold front across central Kansas this
morning to gradually lift north this evening, becoming the focus
for additional shower and thunderstorm development tonight.
With the remnants of this front expected to move into north
central Nebraska by late tonight, expect the focus of shower and
thunderstorm activity this evening to be mostly north of I-80,
and again, this thunderstorm activity should remain non-
severe...with the heaviest rainfall (greater than one half an
inch) expected north of Highway 92.

For Thursday, expect temperatures to rapidly rebound to normal
as southerly flow and clearing skies will help temperatures
again reach the 80s across the local area. While there will be
additional small chances for thunderstorms across our extreme
north (and closer to the aforementioned front) throughout the
day, the vast majority of the local area will remain dry.

A progressive upper level flow with several weak disturbances
will then persist across the central/northern plains for
several days, before high pressure builds across the southwest
and extends across the local area early next week. This should
result in various small chances for thunderstorms each day
across at least parts of the local area, although with no
anticipated strong disturbances, widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity is not anticipated - and as mentioned in
the key messages, much of the local are will likely remain dry
after today. With the upper level ridge then anticipated to
build across the southwest and extend across the local area
early next week, hot weather can be expected to return, and
already have indications that heat index values will likely be
in the 100 to 105 degree range across the vast majority of the
local area to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A band of light rain and isolated thunderstorms is moving across
the area this morning. While CIGS should remain VFR through
most of the day, with a chance for a -SHRA from time to time, a
mid level cloud deck near 7-8KFT should persist through the
afternoon hours, with CIGS potentially becoming MVFR towards the
tail end of the period when the cold front to our south
eventually lifts back north, bringing another chance for
additional SHRAs and TSRAs late in the evening. Overall...winds
will be northeasterly at less than 10 KTS to start the period,
eventually becoming more easterly late in the period as the
aforementioned front lifts north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi