896
FXUS63 KGID 031136
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
536 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Area of upper level low pressure continues to gradually work
  east across southern KS early this morning...will be keeping
  scattered-widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms going
  across mainly the southern half of the forecast area.

- During the daytime hours today, the main upper low will
  gradually shift northeast with time...resulting in
  preciptiation diminishing from west to east. Precipitation is
  expected to end by early-mid evening, with the rest of the
  night being dry.

- After today...outside of a small chance of showers swinging
  through late Wed night into Thu AM...the forecast through the
  upcoming weekend is dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently...

Wet, dreary and overcast conditions ongoing across the forecast
currently will continue on through the early morning hours...as
scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms gradually work
their way across the region. Easy to pick out the main upper
level feature driving this on both radar and satellite data...an
area of low pressure spinning over south central portions of
KS. This low is set up near the base of a larger scale trough
axis extending from the Srn Plains northward into central
Canada...elsewhere across the CONUS, data showing one ridge axis
gradually pushing toward the East Coast, while another extends
roughly from Srn CA northward into the ID/MT border area and
another potent low is approaching the northern CA coast. At the
surface, it`s taken its sweet time, but the main frontal
boundary has finally pushed to the southeast of the forecast
area (barely)...draped from central TX northward through eastern
NE into central MN. The gusty NNWrly winds will continue the
rest of tonight, including gusts over 30 MPH. Radar estimates
showing a swath of anywhere from 1-3 inches extending from
Phillips/Rooks counties northeastward into Nance/Merrick
counties from earlier...more recent activity has focused a bit
further south of that swath, but will continue keeping a close
eye on how things evolve in the coming hours for any hydro
concerns.

Today/tonight...

Main story for the immediate short-term period will continue to
lie with the evolution of this upper level low pressure system
and the lingering precipitation chances. Really not any notable
changes in the models with the track of the low...taking it
from its currently location in south central KS northeastward
into NErn KS around midday...then reaching into SWrn IA by
early-mid evening. This northeast track keeps the low in close
proximity to the local forecast area...meaning preciptiation is
going to be slow to clear. Chances will gradually diminish from
west to east during the day...mainly focusing along/east of HWY
281 from midday on through the afternoon. There is generally
good agreement that while some lingering activity could remain
over far NErn portions of the area early this evening...things
should dry out by late evening/midnight. Once precip comes to an
end, the rest of tonight is expected to be dry.

At the surface, we`ll also be sitting on the WNW edge of an area
of low pressure...which will keep winds gusty out of the NNW
through the day today. Expecting widespread gusts in the 25-35
MPH range, not out of the question some gusts closer to 40 MPH
occur. Like precipitation chances, speeds/gusts are expected to
gradually diminish this afternoon into the evening hours. For
most of the forecast area, not a lot of hope for seeing much/if
any sun...some potential later in the day for western portions
that dry out earlier. No big changes made to forecast highs
today, which are notably cooler than Monday...forecast to range
from the upper 40s to mid 50s (normal for this time of year is
mid 50s-near 60).

Wednesday and on...

By the time sunrise Wednesday rolls around, expecting to have
dry conditions in place across the forecast area...with the
this latest low pressure system having moved near the MN/IA
border area. Models showing another disturbance moving into the
UT area...which looks to eventually push east into southern KS
Wed night-Thur AM. While not great chances, and not widespread
chances...models showing the potential for precipitation to clip
the area as that disturbance shifts east across KS. Outside of
those chances...the forecast thorugh the end of the weekend into
this weekend remains dry. As far as temperatures go...looking
at highs mainly in the 50s to continue Wed-Fri, with some lower
60s working back into at least part of the area for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Synoptic Overview...

An upper-level trough is currently situated over the inter-mountain
west. Embedded within this parent trough is a shortwave currently
over the Dakotas, supporting a surface low pressure center in
central South Dakota, with a cold front stretched in central
Nebraska (more to come). The main vorticity maximum associated with
this system currently resides near Southeastern Colorado.

This Afternoon and Evening...

Strong southerly winds, gusting to 35 MPH, are expected to continue
through the afternoon ahead of this approaching cold front.
Furthermore, skies will continue to clear, as the surface low
pressure center continues to lift northeast. These clear skies
and strong southerly winds will allow highs to increase into the
70s ahead of the cold front.

As this surface low continues to develop underneath the parent
trough, a cold front will advance into the area. As this cold front
barrels through the area, it will serve as the main forcing
mechanism for scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
between 3-5 PM, mainly along and southeast of a line from roughly
Phillipsburg to Aurora to Columbus (though this could shift slightly
depending of frontal timing). Strong winds and hail will be the
primary threat, as surface dew points over 60 degrees (high for
early November) allow CAPE values to reach 1200-1500 J/kg,
along with 30-40kts of effective layer shear. However, a couple
weak, isolated tornadoes are not out of the question, as we have
roughly 20 kts of 0-1km shear and over low-level SRH values
over 100. The main timeframe for these severe hazards will be
4-8PM. These storms could also be efficient rain producers
thanks to precipitable water values over 1 inch and a long-
skinny CAPE profile, with localized 2-3 inches possible in
strongest cores.

Tonight and Tomorrow...

While severe storms are not likely after 9PM, isolated thunderstorms
and rain showers will continue through the night, before
eventually trailing off in the early afternoon. An additional
0.10-0.25 inches of precipitation are possible with these
showers/storms. Even after the precipitation has weaned, the low
pressure center will continue to have its effect on the local
weather. Strong, gusty winds will also continue through tomorrow
evening, with gusts up to 40-45 MPH possible. Highs tomorrow
will be limited to the mid 40s to mid 50s, as the low-level
stratus layer prevents much sunshine along with some strong cold
advection through the day.

Rest of the Week ...

The rest of the forecast period will see near-
normal temperatures, with highs in the 50s, as the upper level low
hangs out in the Midwest through at least midweek. While most of the
forecast is expected to be dry, there is a small chance (up to 15%)
of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, in the broad
cyclonic flow around the upper low as it moves east. After
tonight, low temperatures will return to to the 30s, with below
freezing temperatures possible each night, particularly for
northwestern portions of the area. Friday morning looks to be
the coolest, with lows falling below 30 degrees (freezing line
roughly from Phillipsburg to Hastings to York).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Primary concerns for this TAF period remain with gusty winds,
rain chances and low level cloud cover. An upper level low
pressure system continues to work its way northeast across KS
early this morning...with an axis of at times moderate-heavy
rainfall on the backside of the low draped across the
central/eastern portions of the forecast area. Best chances for
rain will be over the next 3-6hrs...then gradually tapering off
from west to east. Once rain comes to an end, the rest of the
TAF period is expected to be dry. The lower level cloud cover
will be slower to diminish...especially at KGRI. Actually have
VFR conditions returning late in the period tonight at
KEAR...but overall confidence in ceilings at both places is not
high. Gusty northwest winds will continue through at least the
first half of the period...diminishing this evening/overnight.
Gusts during the daytime hours around 30-35 MPH will be possible
at both sites.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...ADP