412
FXUS63 KGID 182129
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
329 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog development possible overnight. Widespread or dense
  fog is not expected.

- An upper level low will bring a chance for rain back to the
  area Thursday-Friday, with the highest chances and
  accumulations across north-central Kansas. Areas north of I-80
  may not see much if any rain.

- Fantastic weather returns for the weekend with high
  temperatures well above normal (60s), full sunshine and light
  southwesterly breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread cloud cover has persisted across much of the local
area this afternoon. Where clouds have remained thick,
temperatures remain in the 40s, with a few lucky spots that have
seen sunny skies climbing into the 50s.

For tonight...some uncertainty exists in the amount of low
level cloud cover that will remain across the area. Model data
indicates this lower level cloud cover may hold tough past
midnight with rather thick cirrus filling in across the upper
levels by the time it dissipates. While there will likely be
some erosion of the lower stratus on the edges, think the
overall amounts of clouds will limit radiational cooling and at
least widespread fog potential overnight. The latest HRRR (19Z)
is indicating there may be some dense fog to our west towards
daybreak Wednesday, but this has continued to trend outside our
forecast area, and given very low SREF probs for fog
development, think the potential for more dense fog locally is
low. That said, given the light and favorable wind direction,
would not be surprised if some light fog with visibilities in
the 3-5 SM range will be possible across at least parts of the
area to start the day Wednesday.

While mid/high level cloud cover will persist across the area
through much of the day Wednesday, this cloud cover will not be
as inhibitive to warming as what we have seen today - and this
combined with a return to southerly winds and brief ridging
aloft, should allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound into
the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations Wednesday
afternoon.

Thereafter...the focus will shift to the upper level low across
the desert southwest that is forecast to lift into the plains on
Thursday/Friday. As this low lifts north and east later this
week, expect clouds to once again thicken across the local area
with a chance for rain returning by Thursday evening to north
central Kansas, eventually spreading north towards the I-80
corridor Friday morning. The overall focus of this storm remains
south of the local area, and while cloud cover will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s again for the entire area to end the
week, the majority of the rainfall will be limited to north
central Kansas, with areas north of I-80 likely not receiving
much accumulation.

Behind this low, high pressure will again expand across the
plains over the upcoming weekend as another upper level low
deepens across the desert southwest. This will set-up a
fantastic late fall weekend across the local area, with well
above normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) along with light
southerly breezes and lots of sunshine.

Expect the aforementioned upper level low to scoot mainly
southeast of the local area early next week with an upper level
trough from the north eventually bringing a prolonged period of
cooler weather to the local area by Thanksgiving eve.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low confidence conditions through the period.

IFR stratus has lifted a bit (now in the lower MVFR range) and
is breaking up in spots across the area. Complete erosion of
this cloud deck is not anticipated until evening, and confidence
of this is only moderate. In addition, could see a few breaks
from time to time as suggested in satellite data, but these
breaks will likely only be temporary through the afternoon
hours, which reduces confidence in prevailing MVFR conditions
through the first 12-18 hours of the TAF. If stratus does break
this evening, there will be an increased chance for BR/FG
formation overnight, which currently was not hit too hard in the
TAFs. Overall...north winds to 12KTS+ will continue for the
next few hours, diminishing during the late afternoon hours as
they shift and become more easterly this evening/overnight. Low
clouds should be gone by 19/12Z...but high confidence of bkn
mid/high level clouds through the daytime hours Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR