Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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412 FXUS63 KGID 182129 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 329 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog development possible overnight. Widespread or dense fog is not expected. - An upper level low will bring a chance for rain back to the area Thursday-Friday, with the highest chances and accumulations across north-central Kansas. Areas north of I-80 may not see much if any rain. - Fantastic weather returns for the weekend with high temperatures well above normal (60s), full sunshine and light southwesterly breezes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Widespread cloud cover has persisted across much of the local area this afternoon. Where clouds have remained thick, temperatures remain in the 40s, with a few lucky spots that have seen sunny skies climbing into the 50s. For tonight...some uncertainty exists in the amount of low level cloud cover that will remain across the area. Model data indicates this lower level cloud cover may hold tough past midnight with rather thick cirrus filling in across the upper levels by the time it dissipates. While there will likely be some erosion of the lower stratus on the edges, think the overall amounts of clouds will limit radiational cooling and at least widespread fog potential overnight. The latest HRRR (19Z) is indicating there may be some dense fog to our west towards daybreak Wednesday, but this has continued to trend outside our forecast area, and given very low SREF probs for fog development, think the potential for more dense fog locally is low. That said, given the light and favorable wind direction, would not be surprised if some light fog with visibilities in the 3-5 SM range will be possible across at least parts of the area to start the day Wednesday. While mid/high level cloud cover will persist across the area through much of the day Wednesday, this cloud cover will not be as inhibitive to warming as what we have seen today - and this combined with a return to southerly winds and brief ridging aloft, should allow for afternoon temperatures to rebound into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter...the focus will shift to the upper level low across the desert southwest that is forecast to lift into the plains on Thursday/Friday. As this low lifts north and east later this week, expect clouds to once again thicken across the local area with a chance for rain returning by Thursday evening to north central Kansas, eventually spreading north towards the I-80 corridor Friday morning. The overall focus of this storm remains south of the local area, and while cloud cover will likely keep temperatures in the 40s again for the entire area to end the week, the majority of the rainfall will be limited to north central Kansas, with areas north of I-80 likely not receiving much accumulation. Behind this low, high pressure will again expand across the plains over the upcoming weekend as another upper level low deepens across the desert southwest. This will set-up a fantastic late fall weekend across the local area, with well above normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) along with light southerly breezes and lots of sunshine. Expect the aforementioned upper level low to scoot mainly southeast of the local area early next week with an upper level trough from the north eventually bringing a prolonged period of cooler weather to the local area by Thanksgiving eve. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Low confidence conditions through the period. IFR stratus has lifted a bit (now in the lower MVFR range) and is breaking up in spots across the area. Complete erosion of this cloud deck is not anticipated until evening, and confidence of this is only moderate. In addition, could see a few breaks from time to time as suggested in satellite data, but these breaks will likely only be temporary through the afternoon hours, which reduces confidence in prevailing MVFR conditions through the first 12-18 hours of the TAF. If stratus does break this evening, there will be an increased chance for BR/FG formation overnight, which currently was not hit too hard in the TAFs. Overall...north winds to 12KTS+ will continue for the next few hours, diminishing during the late afternoon hours as they shift and become more easterly this evening/overnight. Low clouds should be gone by 19/12Z...but high confidence of bkn mid/high level clouds through the daytime hours Wednesday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SR AVIATION...SR