887
FXUS63 KGID 240528
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1128 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will be the last day in the 50s this forecast period,
  but it won`t be as nice as you think with thick low clouds all
  day, although the wind will be light (<10mph).

- Rain moves into the area this evening/tonight (40-70% PoPs)
  and continues into the day on Monday. Rain accumulations
  generally around 0.10" and up to 0.25" on the high end.

- Gusty northwest winds and cooler weather behind a cold front
  on Tuesday. Winds gusting over 40-45mph possible. Highs fall
  into the 40s on Tuesday with lows Tuesday night in the lower
  20s and upper teens.

- High temperatures are trending downward Wednesday into the holiday
  weekend. Mainly around 40 on Thanksgiving and then more 30s
  by Friday to even 20s for highs on Sunday.

- Increasing chances (30-50%) for the first wintry storm of the
  season arriving next weekend (Saturday/Sunday).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Monday...

Mid to high clouds are just beginning to filter into our
forecast area this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper level
storm system from the southwest. Clouds will continue to
increase and lower through the evening hours as the upper low
kicks out into the plains. Forecast models are in good agreement
that this system will bring a swath of light rain to much of our
forecast area overnight primarily after 6 PM over north central
Kansas and closer to midnight or later over most of south
central Nebraska. The peak time frame for the Tri-Cities to
possibly get a little light rain will be between midnight and 9
AM. Model ensembles give our forecast area a 40-70% chance for
0.10" but only a 5-20% chance for 0.25". Expect most areas will
see a trace to 0.10" with just a few higher end rainfall amounts
around 0.25".

Although light rain could still be around later Monday morning
into Monday afternoon, the chances will be decreasing, showers
should be more isolated, and any amounts would be light.
Temperatures will still be mild in the 50s on Monday despite
the thick low clouds. We do not expect to see 50 degree weather
again through the rest of the 7 day forecast period after
Monday.


Tuesday and Wednesday...

Another fast moving storm system, this time a clipper out of the
northwest will bring snow to the Dakotas as it tracks to our
north into Minnesota. For our area this system will just bring
gusty northwest winds (35-45 mph gusts) with the strongest gusts
northwest of the Tri-Citites, and colder air (Highs 40s, lows
teens to lower 20s).


Thanksgiving Day...

Most model ensemble are dry through Thanksgiving day, with just
a few (<10%) indicating a chance for a few flurries or
sprinkles. The wind should be light <10 kts, but it will not be
a very pleasant day with good confidence that highs will only be
in the upper 30s to lower 40s.


Friday...

This is becoming a bit more interesting. The NBM is still
calling for less than a 20% chance for snow, so the official
forecast remains dry for now. However, we are seeing an uptick
in ECMWF ensemble members (20-30%) with snow for portions of our
forecast area this day, it would generally be light with
greater likelihood across northeastern and eastern Nebraska. GFS
ensembles don`t give our area as much, but do still hint at the
potential for light snow for areas just to our east. Just note
that although Friday is dry for now for our area, that could
change and especially if you are heading east that day.


Saturday and Sunday...

The winter weather potential will increase Saturday and Sunday
with at least 50% of the 00Z ECMWF ensemble members now
indicating the potential for accumulating snow at some point as
we close out the holiday weekend. There is still a significant
amount of uncertainty with how the next upper low will come out
of the western United States. There are a variety of model
solutions, from coming out quickly as a weaker progressive
trough, to cutting off over the southwest U.S and coming out
into the plains more slowly, and the tracks are still all over
the board. Bottom line, is that it will be colder (20s-30s) and
a storm system could bring snow to at least portions of the
plains as we end the holiday weekend so keep an eye on forecast
updates through the week if you have holiday travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few light showers will accompany lowering ceilings into early
Monday morning. Some patchy fog may also develop closer to
sunrise. Confidence is relatively high (70%) in periods of
IFR/LIFR conditions in the 08-17Z timeframe. Conditions then
gradually improve through Monday afternoon and evening.

Light south winds turn to the northwest on Monday afternoon,
becoming light/variable Monday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels