867
FXUS63 KGID 081125
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
525 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible through the mid morning hours.

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 40s and 50s, warmer
  on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

- Breezy winds and low relative humidity values could result in
  elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

- Cooler weather expected Wednesday onwards, with the next
  chance for precipitation arriving Wednesday night where light
  snow (under 1") is possible (15-35%). &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025


Low stratus is currently ongoing across the eastern half of the
forecast area where temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s. To the
west of the stratus patchy fog has developed where skies are clear.
At times visibility in fog has dipped below 1 mile, though
widespread dense fog is not expected. Fog will linger into the mid-
morning hours before dissipating/clearing.

A pleasant day is expected across the area as temperatures climb
above normal this afternoon. Given mostly sunny skies and west-
southwest winds favorable for downslope warming, have opted to
go on the higher end of model guidance for temperatures today.
Highs will range from the mid/upper 40s east of Highway 81, to
the low 50s around the Tri-Cities, with southwestern portions of
the area nearing 60 degrees. West-southwest winds gusting
20-25mph are possible this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in
the mid to upper 20s.

Even warmer weather is in store for the area on Tuesday, as highs
soar into the mid 50s (east) to mid 60s (west). Above normal
temperatures result in afternoon relative humidity values dropping
to 25-35% with west-southwest winds gusting 20-30mph. Combined, this
could result in elevated fire weather conditions west of Highway 183
Tuesday afternoon. A cold front dives into the area Tuesday night-
Wednesday morning, with temperatures returning to their
climatological normals. Otherwise the forecast remains largely on
track, with the next chance for PoPs arriving Wednesday night-
Thursday, where light snow (less than 1") is possible (15-35%).
The atmospheric pattern remains active through the end of the
week and into next week with roller coaster temperatures as a
series of clipper systems move through the area, though there
remains a fair amount of spread in model guidance.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The pattern of quick moving clipper systems coming out of the
northwest will continue. This will generally result in a roller
coaster of temperatures and a few chances for mainly light snow
(<1").

Rest of the Afternoon into Tonight...

Clouds have really hung around today and have resulted in
slightly lower temperatures than earlier forecast. Thus far
through 2 PM these have generally been shallow low clouds and
there has been no precipitation. However, we expect deeper
saturation and a thicker cloud deck to move across the area
from west to east mainly north of I-80 between 3-9 PM. Forecast
models indicate that this will quickly swing a broken band of
snow across our northern zones (north of I-80), likely lasting
less than 1 hour at any one location and dropping mainly trace
amounts of snowfall, but can not rule out an isolated 1/2" of
snow. If you are south of I-80 you are looking at just a few
flurries if anything this evening.

The 18Z HRRR has a very slight patchy fog signal mainly across
our southwestern zones with the wind becoming light overnight
and the clouds clearing out. Have not added this into the
forecast yet, but evening shift may want to keep an eye on
future model runs and see which way this trends.


Monday...

As mentioned above, there is that slight chance (20%) for
patchy fog early Monday morning and then southwest to westerly
winds work to warm us up through the day. The NBM in the Tri-
Cities indicates good confidence in high temperatures mainly
clustered between the upper 40s to lower 50s.


Tuesday...

This is looking like a Top 3 December day with good NBM
confidence indicated by a narrow model spread of highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 in the Tri-Citites to the lower 60s
southwest of the Tri-Cities.

It could be a little breezy with westerly wind gusts of 20 to
25 mph. Will also have to keep an eye on fire weather conditions
as dewpoints will be a little lower, but RH values will mainly
be in the 30-40% range for most areas, far western zones could
see RH values fall into the upper 20s Tuesday afternoon.


Wednesday through Friday...

We`ll have a little vort max (weak system) moving through our
area within the overall northwesterly flow regime. This could
bring some light snow to our forecast area as early as late
afternoon on Wednesday, but more likely Wednesday night. At this
point we are only talking about 20-40% chances of light snowfall
accumulation (<1") across Nebraska counties. Then we get another
little wave Thursday night into Friday morning that could (20%) bring
another round of light snow (<1"). Looking at dozens of
ensembles through this period (Wed-Fri), it appears that the
probability of getting more than 1" of snow is currently 20% or
less. This could change, but right now it just looks like a
little very light snow and colder conditions. We just get
progressively colder with additional pushes of cold air, mainly
40s on Wednesday, more folks in the 30s by Thursday, and then
mainly 20s by Friday and maybe even a few teens for highs
across our northeast on Friday. I should note that the model
temperature spread in the Tri-Cities is pretty high Thursday
(32-44F) and Friday (12-24F) with our current forecast closer
to the higher end temperatures on Friday so these forecast
temperatures could be coming down if current trends hold.


Next Weekend...

At this point, next weekend looks cold and dry. However, there
is a large model temperature spread of over 20 degrees between
the 25th and 75th percentile on Sunday`s high temperatures (19-42F).
So not much confidence in next weekend`s temperature forecast
yet, just too far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

IFR status to continue at KGRI into the mid-morning hours before
clearing. Unlikely to impact KEAR, but if it does it would be
brief. Have included at TEMPO group at KEAR for the brief window
where IFR ceilings are possible. KGRI is more solidly in stratus
though it could change between IFR and VFR before ultimately
becoming VFR by the mid-morning hours. Additionally patchy fog
is possible over the next few hours at KGRI/KEAR, but confidence
in location or visibility is too low to include in the TAF.

After stratus clears to the east, VFR conditions are
favored through the end of the TAF period. Southwest winds shift
to the west-southwest this morning increasing to 10-15kts this
afternoon, gusting to 20kts at KEAR. Around sunset winds become
light and westerly, persisting through the end of the TAF
period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Davis