623
FXUS63 KGID 121124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through
  the early morning hours today along a passing cold
  front...some storms may be strong to marginally severe. Large
  hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats.

- Isolated-scattered precipitation chances continue on across
  the area through the day today...with increasing chances later
  this afternoon on into this evening-tonight, mainly across
  E-SE portions of the area. Strong-severe storms will again be
  possible.

- Following highs in the low 90s for most on Friday, highs today
  are notably cooler, with most locations in the 70s, some lower
  80s possible across our far SE.

- An active pattern keeps chances for precipitation in the
  forecast well into the upcoming week, with the best overall
  chances currently in the Monday evening through Tuesday night
  time frame...though plenty of uncertainties remain to be
  ironed out in the coming days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data continuing to show generally zonal flow
in place across the region tonight...with one shortwave disturbance
set up over eastern MO/AR, a stronger upper low just off the Pac NW
coast, and broader troughing working across central Canada into the
Dakotas. This system off to our north is helping to push a surface
cold front south through the region, which is looking to be near/if
not beyond the southern fringes of our forecast area by sunrise
Saturday (a touch faster than what models were showing 24hrs ago).
Not out of the question that additional activity develop near this
frontal boundary, with more elevated activity possible to its north
through the rest of the overnight hours...but even it being just in
the next handful of hours, there are some differences between higher-
res models with just how much activity there ends up being. Any
storms that do develop will have the potential to be strong to
marginally severe...with MUCAPE values around 1500-2000 j/kg and
shear around 30-ish kts, though the better overall upper level
forcing is focused off to our north.

As the front passes through the rest of tonight...expecting at times
gusty northerly winds, with gusts around 25 MPH or so possible for
at least brief period of time.

Today and tonight...

Not expecting much change in the upper level pattern, remaining
zonal across the region...main question continues to lie with
additional precipitation chances. Through the first half of the
day...some models suggesting that enough pretty subtle forcing
lingers to keep at least isolated-scattered activity around, mainly
across our Neb. counties. This activity is north of the main surface
frontal boundary...which by late morning-midday looks to be draped
from SWrn KS into east-central KS, but will still have some elevated
instability to tap into...so it`s not out of the question some
storms could be on the strong-severe side. Further into the
afternoon hours and eventually evening-overnight, better chances for
storms pick up further south-southeast. Though overall upper forcing
still looking to be on the subtle side...activity in those areas
would have better instability to work with, and into the
evening/overnight hours, an increasing low-level jet will also
provide additional lift...though models have that better focus more
over ESErn portions of KS.

Outside of the preciptiation chances, expecting variable sky cover
through the day...and with the forecast area sitting north of the
main sfc front, winds will remain east-northeasterly. Following
highs on Friday in the lower 90s for most locations, today`s highs
will be a nice change, with forecast calling for generally mid-70s
across most of our Neb counties, and upper 70s-near 80 near/south of
the state line.

Start of the new week...

Plenty of uncertainties linger for the forecast on Sunday regarding
preciptiation chances...expecting activity from tonight to linger
into at least part of the day, but models aren`t in too bad of
agreement showing things tapering off with time. Models showing
continued generally zonal flow in the upper levels through Sunday,
with a stronger upper level low pressure system working its way
through the Pac NW. Confidence in temperatures is not overly high,
with models showing the potential for quite a gradient across the
forecast area. Winds look to remain mainly easterly...but with the
potential for precipitation lingering longer across NErn areas,
forecast highs are only in the upper 60s-near 70...vs the low 80s
forecast across north central KS.

That upper level low moving through the Pac NW on Sunday ushers in
more southwesterly flow aloft across the area...bringing additional
chances for precipitation through mid-week...with the best overall
chances currently focused in the Monday evening through Tuesday
night time frame. Still a lot of details to iron out with the
evolution of the pattern and ultimately where the best chances line
up.

Ahead of those higher precipitation chances Monday evening-
on...models showing a notable bump up in highs for Monday, reaching
well into the 80s to mid 90s (hottest temps across our KS counties).
Once that more southwesterly flow aloft sets up and brings those
better precip chances...highs Tue-Thu look to fall back into the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

This Evening/Tonight...

Winds are breezy this afternoon gusting 25-35mph ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Temperatures are sitting in the 80s to
low 90s with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. A cold front/dryline is
expected to enter far northwestern portions of the area by the late
afternoon hours. 12z Model guidance overall has trended away from
supporting isolated thunderstorm development this evening along the
aforementioned front. Given overall weak forcing and atmospheric
capping, if a storm does form in the area, it will likely be
isolated. CAPE values of 2000 J/Kg combined with 25-30kts of shear
would support a severe threat (60mph wind gusts, quarter sized hail)
with any storm that does form. Moving into the overnight hours,
can`t completely rule out a storm developing along the front, or
storms that develop north of the area (where forcing is stronger)
sneaking into northeastern portions of the area. Given overall low
confidence in storms, kept PoPs limited to 15-20%.

Saturday...

Saturday morning, isolated-scattered showers with an occasional
rumble of thunder are possible behind the frontal passage. These
showers will gradually shift southeast throughout the morning hours,
exiting by the early afternoon. Breezy northerly winds are expected
behind the front, gusting 20-25mph. The cold frontal passage also
results in pleasant temperatures on Saturday, with highs in the 70s
(NE) to low 80s (KS). As the Low Level Jet develops Saturday night,
it brings additional thunderstorm chances to the area. A reservoir
of elevated instability will be in place north of a frontal boundary
in central/southern Kansas. It`s plausible that a few storms
Saturday night could tap into this instability and shear and
become strong-severe though confidence on coverage of storms is
uncertain. Storms chances (20-50%) Saturday night-Sunday
morning favor southeast/eastern portions of the area.

Sunday...

Lingering showers/storms will likely be ongoing across
east/northeastern portions of the area to start the day on Sunday.
Rain will come to an end by the late morning hours. The surface
front in Kansas will begin to lift north during the day, reaching
northern Kansas during the afternoon hours. Highs on Sunday will be
in the 70s across Nebraska, with temperatures in the low-upper 80s
in Kansas depending on the location of the frontal boundary.
Thunderstorm chances (20-50%) return Sunday night as the LLJ
redevelops.


Next Week...

A more robust shortwave trough pushes into the Plains on Monday,
pushing a cold front into the area. Scattered showers/storms are
favored to develop along this front during the late afternoon-
overnight hours. The front pushes through the area Monday night,
bringing more widespread rain chances. Confidence in the finer
details is lower at this time but some strong-severe storms are
possible. Cooler weather is expected Tuesday onwards behind the
frontal passage, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Off and on
thunderstorm chances continue into the middle of next week as weak
disturbances traverse through the southwesterly-zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered showers and storms are working their way into western
portions of the forecast area early this morning, tracking east.
On its current track, activity could impact both terminal sites
in the first few hours of this TAF period, and did insert a
TEMPO group for -TSRA and the potential for MVFR ceilings...as a
few sites in the area have recorded ceilings around 2500-3000ft
over the past couple of hours. From mid-morning on through the
end of the period, have VFR conditions forecast...and also kept
the forecast dry. There will continue to be the potential for
isolated-scattered activity around the region
today/tonight...but confidence in any impact at the terminals is
low, so kept things dry. Will be something to monitor through
the day. Through roughly midday, expecting gusty northeasterly
winds...gusts around 25 MPH will be possible at both
terminals...with speeds diminishing this afternoon. Expecting
more light/variable winds this evening/overnight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...ADP