773
FXUS63 KGID 151704
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1104 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s to low 70s
  and mostly sunny skies.

- Rain chances (20-40%) return to areas along and northeast of
  the Tri-Cities on Monday. Any accumulations will be light
  (under 0.10")

- Seasonable temperatures (40s/50s) continue next week, with
  additional chances for rain (15-30%). &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today and Sunday...

Temperatures this morning are in the 40s and 50s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies. A cold front located along a line from
North Platte to Norfolk is steadily moving south. The cold
front will push through southern portions the area shortly
after sunrise, with winds shifting to the north behind the
front. Cooler, but above normals are expected today, as highs
climb into the mid 60s (north) to low 70s (south). Winds
decrease throughout the day, becoming light during the
afternoon. Overall, mostly sunny skies, light winds and above
normal temperatures will result in a very pleasant day. lows
tonight will be in the 30s. Patchy fog development is possible
tonight-Sunday morning, though uncertainty remains on how
widespread and dense fog will be.

Winds shift to the south on Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough. Sunday will be another seasonably warm day as highs climb
into the 60s. Get outside and enjoy the weather if you can, as
cooler weather arrives next week.

Monday and Tuesday..

A shortwave trough moves into the plains on Monday, bringing the
next chance for rain to the area. Recent model trends continue to
shift rain further north and east, bringing uncertainty on how much
rain will impact the area. 00z ECMWF and GFS ensembles, and the NBM
reflect this trend well, with a less than 20% chance for areas
southeast of the Tri-Cities to see accumulating rainfall. North
and east of the Tri-Cities, rain chances are higher (20-40%),
but accumulations look to be light, with accumulations generally
below 0.10". Temperatures in the 40s and 50s will mean that
anything that falls will remain entirely as rain. Any rain comes
to an end around sunset as the low moves into the midwest.

Seasonable weather is expected on Tuesday behind the low, as the
area sits under the influence of high pressure system in the
midwest. Highs will be in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies and
light winds.

Wednesday Onwards...

Troughing over the west coast will move into the area during the
latter half of the forecast period. In response, a low at the
surface will track from the southern plains into the Midwest. There
remains spread in the exact track and position of this low. The GFS,
ECMWF and their ensembles indicate the best chances (15-30%) for
rain will be south and east of the forecast area and rain
chances are dependent on the exact track of the low. Overall,
southeastern portions of the area look to be the most favored to
see rain with this system, though the exact details remain
uncertain. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the end
of the forecast period with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1055 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are likely to retain across the next 24-hours
(80% confidence). A few high base clouds may sweep by overnight
(above 15,000ft), not threatening any ceiling categories. Fog
is not completely off the table of possibilities early Sunday,
however, limited confidence at this time (<20%) leaves the
mention out of the TAF. Winds today will blow between 10-15kts
out of the north. Overnight, winds will become light and
variable (mainly between 0z-14z) with southeasterly winds
picking back up for Sunday.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump