381
FXUS63 KGID 141718
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...18z Aviation Discussion Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid weather continues through Tuesday.

- Strong to severe storms possible mainly during the overnight
  hours though an isolated strong storm can`t be ruled out this
  afternoon.

- Strong-severe storms are possible each day through Tuesday,
  though the details on how widespread storms will be is
  uncertain. Tuesday looks to be the day of highest confidence
  for severe weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025


Today....

A MCS is currently tracking through far southwestern portions of the
area this morning. A slow moving cluster of strong to marginally
severe storms is currently moving into southern Rooks county. This
cluster will track across southern Rooks/Osborne counties over the
next couple of hours. The strongest thunderstorms should exit our
southern Kansas counties a little after sunrise with rain lingering
into the mid morning hours across portions of north central Kansas.

The upper level pattern remains similar to previous days, as a
trough sits over the West Coast and ridging continues over the Great
Plains. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will stick around throughout the
day. Despite this, highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s, though more robust cloud coverage could limit how
widespread 90s are. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible
during this afternoon and evening where greater heating and
convergence can occur. SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 combined with 20-
25kts of shear could support a stronger storm, though confidence in
any severe potential is low. There remains a lot of uncertainty on
storm development this afternoon/evening, with CAM guidance varying
from completely dry weather to a couple of strong-marginally severe
storms. Given the cloud coverage and nebulous forcing, tend to think
anything more than an isolated storm is unlikely, so a fairly broad
15-20% probability for storms was used to indicate this potential.

Like in previous days, focus turns to our west during the late
evening-overnight hours as thunderstorms move out of western
NE/eastern CO. CAM guidance continues to struggle in how this will
evolve, and how far east there will be a potential for severe
thunderstorms. With storms not expected to enter the area until the
overnight hours (10pm-midnight), storms will encounter an
increasingly stable environment as they enter the forecast area.
While the entire forecast area is encompassed in a marginal risk,
far western portions of the area are the most likely areas to see a
severe storm tonight (if there is severe at all). Any severe storm
will mainly be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, though hail
up to quarter size will be possible in any stronger cell. Given the
overall uncertainty with storm evolution tonight, have lowered PoPs
below 40%.

Sunday...

Any remaining rain will exit the area Sunday morning, with partly to
mostly cloudy skies over the area on Sunday. Highs will climb into
the upper 80s-low 90s. There is a low (15-30%) chance for additional
thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon/evening across eastern
portions of the area. SBCAPE values around 2000J/Kg and shear of 25-
30kts will support the potential for a strong to marginally severe
storm. Again, given nebulous forcing, any afternoon/evening storm
will likely be isolated.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern CO/western NE and
move into the area Sunday evening/night. Either thunderstorm
clusters or a more organized MCS are expected to move into the area.
Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Western portions of the area are the most likely to see severe
wind/hail. Details on how widespread this severe potential will be
should become clearer as we get within 24 hours of the event.

Monday and Tuesday...

In what starts to feel like a broken record, another warm and humid
day is in store, with uncertain chances for strong/severe
thunderstorms. Highs will once again climb into the upper 80s/low
90s under partly cloudy skies. Instability looks to be stronger than
previous days (2500-3500J/Kg), and shear will be sufficient for
severe thunderstorms. At least isolated thunderstorm development is
possible during the afternoon/evening hours where the "cap" can be
broken. Another round of evening/night storms will move into the
area Monday night, carrying a potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms. Again, details on this severe potential will likely
become clearer as we get within 24 hours of the event.

A stronger shortwave trough will break down the ridge on Tuesday,
and bring another chance for strong/severe thunderstorms to the
area. A quasi-stationary front will reside across central/northern
portions of the area to start the day on Tuesday. Areas south of the
front are expected to climb into the upper 80s/mid 90s resulting in
a very unstable environment. As the front begins to move south
Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front. Storms that develop will be capable of becoming strong/severe
given favorable instability and shear. The front will exit
southeastern portions of the area Tuesday evening/night. Currently
the entire area is encompassed in the SPC day 4 outlook for severe
thunderstorms, but expect this to change depending on the position
of the front. Additional shower/storm development is possible behind
the frontal passage, though this is less likely to be severe.

Wednesday Onwards...

Cooler weather is expected on Wednesday behind the frontal passage,
as the area is under the base of the passing trough. Highs will be
near to slightly below normal, in the low to mid 80s. This will also
be a break from the string of PoPs in previous days. The cooldown
will be short lived, as ridging will begin to build back over the
area on Thursday, and continue to strengthen as we get into next
weekend. This will result in another round above normal
temperatures, and likely the warmest temperatures of the year so
far.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected to retain over the next 24 hours.
(60% confidence). The lowest confidence period generally lies
between 10-16z. Broken to overcast skies are expected to hold
through much of the day with cloud bases hovering near 20kft.
Thunderstorms will be possible (not likely) between primarily
6-12z, however, confidence at this time remains on the lower end
(left to a PROB30 group mention for now). Any developing
thunderstorm could prompt short-term MVFR or even IFR
conditions. Winds out of the south today will remain between
10-15kts and dropping off overnight and Sunday morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump