167
FXUS63 KGID 200547
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog expected to return tonight...some of which could be
  locally dense again Thursday morning.

- Rain chances return Thursday night as rain lifts north into
  the area. This band of precipitation has trended further
  north, and areas along and south of I-80 now expected to see
  some modest rainfall amounts. Highest totals will be across
  Kansas (up to 1"), with possibly little to no accumulation
  north of Highway 92 (T-0.01").

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s, light
  breezes (mostly less than 10 MPH), and sunny skies.

- Changes coming next week as a more active and eventually
  colder weather pattern overtakes the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fog was a little more widespread and thick across the area this
morning than previously anticipated. By late morning, most
locations were fog free and partly sunny skies (with lots of
high level cloud cover) returned to the region.

For tonight...expect another potential round of fog to develop
across the local area after midnight, as light winds along with
at least partial clearing are anticipated across the region.
While some models like the HRRR are indicating the fog will be
more widespread to start the day on Thursday, confidence is not
overly high as while the winds are light they also look to have
a westerly (downslope and less favorable) component. As a
result, included the potential for patchy dense fog both in the
forecast as well as in the HWO, but opted against a headline
this early as it may end up being more patchy than some models
suggest. Will need to play this by ear and see how things end up
developing this evening/early night to see if a dense fog
advisory once again becomes necessary.

Otherwise, after at least a bit of fog to start the day on
Thursday, the focus will turn to the upper level low currently
circulating near the eastern California/southern Nevada border.
While we have had our eyes on this system for several days,
models are now swinging this area of low pressure further north
towards the local area by Thursday evening as an upper level
trough moves across the Great Lakes Region. This means the main
band of precip should set up a bit further north, and areas
along and south of I-80 are now favored to see some measurable
rainfall. While there still will be a tight gradient in the band
of precip that develops, confidence is increasing that the tri-
cities could receive between 0.25-0.50" (about a 50% chance).
The good news is that this system is relatively warm, and any
precip locally should fall as rain through Friday afternoon.
With the clouds and rain, however, Friday will likely remain on
the cooler side, with some locations likely not climbing out of
the 40s.

After a cool/unsettled end to the week, a beautiful weekend
continues to appear on tap for the local area. Behind Fridays
exiting upper level low, ridging aloft is anticipated over the
weekend as the next upper level low across the desert southwest
slowly rounds the base of the longwave trough. As heights rise,
so should temperatures, with mostly sunny skies and above normal
temperatures expected both days. As a bonus, with a weak
pressure gradient under the upper level ridge, surface winds
should also be light, with afternoon breezes likely less than 10
MPH.

As with the first system Tomorrow night/Friday, the trajectory
of the subsequent upper level low early next week has trended
further north in both the operational runs of the GFS/EC.
Therefore, while official pops with this system are on the low
side (10-30%), they may ultimately be too low as the vast
majority of the EC ensemble members are indicating measurable
precipitation along with about 50% of the members of the GFS.
Again, given the origin of this system, the chance of any snow
early next week looks low. Beyond this system, however, the
upper level ridge breaks down, and much cooler air and an active
weather pattern in progressive northwest flow returns to the
area Thanksgiving eve and beyond. Still too early to predict the
first measurable snow, but things are looking more promising
towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Areas of fog have begun to develop over the past couple of
hours and would expect this trend to continue for several more
hours given the clear skies and light winds. Still some
uncertainty how widespread/dense this fog will become at the
terminals but have maintained IFR VSBYs as the prevailing group,
and a tempo group into the LIFR range in the 09Z to 12Z time frame.

Have higher confidence that widespread LIFR CIGs and at least
IFR VSBYs will arrive 12-13Z with the passage of a N-S moving
cold front. Recent RAP and HRRR runs have remained very
consistent in this scenario. Once the LIFR conditions set in,
probably won`t be much, if any, improvement until around midday.
Have slowed the improvement back to VFR until 19-21Z. This
front will cause lgt and vrbl winds overnight to become N to NE
for Thu at 6-10kt. Sub-VFR conditions look to return just beyond
this valid period.

Confidence is Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies