485
FXUS63 KGID 112145
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions continue for at least one more day in
  our far SSE counties where a Heat Advisory has been issued for
  Wed. Some slight relief expected elsewhere, esp. N of I-80.

- Scattered storms are possible this evening into the overnight,
  esp. W of the Tri-Cities, but this activity should be
  weakening as it does so.

- Much better chances (50%-70%+) for thunderstorms arrive
  Wednesday night, in which some may be strong to severe. There
  is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for most of our Nebraska
  forecast area, and a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk elsewhere.

- A fairly active, and overall considerably cooler, pattern
  settles in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Best
  rain chances will tend to favor areas from the Tri-Cities,
  north and west, and mainly during the evening/night hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Heat impacts:
Another warm/hot afternoon across the area...and also quite
steamy for most of south central Nebraska, where dew points in
the upper 60s to mid 70s are common. Air temperatures have
surpassed the century mark for many areas along and S of the
state line, but this is also where drier air resides. Thus, heat
indices here are not all that different than the thermometer
readings. Expanded the Heat Advisory earlier today to include
the rest of northern KS and sure enough, both Phillipsburg and
Smith Center are hovering near 105F heat index. Will be
interesting to see how the heat unfolds next couple of days as
there will be several competing factors. A cold front (currently
along the Hwy 20 corridor) will gradually sink southward and
usher in at least modestly cooler air for most of our Neb
zones...and there could also be several bouts of mid to high
clouds and perhaps even a few elevated showers. However, areas S
of the boundary will remain very warm, and likely as humid or
even more humid than today given propensity for moisture to pool
along/just ahead of such boundaries. Also, these areas will
remain quite warm tonight - only briefly dipping into the upper
70s - and have an already elevated launching pad for
temperatures on Wednesday. Therefore, opted to issued another
Heat Advisory for Osborne, Mitchell, and Jewell Counties where
heat indices around 105F are again most likely. It`s possible
the front may not move quite as far S as currently expected, in
which case the advisory may very well need to be expanded
northward. We`ll see how the front trends overnight.

Temperature uncertainties only increase for Thursday, with
latest NBM guidance indicating the potential for a 25+ degree
spread in highs from N to S. In fact, the current forecast for
Thursday would place our far S tier of KS counties once again
around the 105F heat index criteria for another Heat Advisory.
Considerably higher chances for showers and thunderstorms Wed
night (discussed further below) cast even more uncertainty on
where the effective front/composite outflow resides by peak
heating Thursday. Just know the far S may need to wait one more
day (maybe even two??) to get in on some relief from the heat.
The latest forecast is void of any 90s by Sunday-Monday, and
areas along/N of I-80 may not get out of the 70s. Pattern may
turn warmer again towards the middle of next week.

Rain/Storm Chances:
Scattered showers and storms are developing over W Neb. late
this afternoon, and this activity will attempt to move into at
least far W zones this evening. However, similar to past few
nights, the expectation is that steady weakening will occur
after sunset. Thus, may not see much more than sprinkles E of
Hwy 183. Another area of storms for us to watch will be what`s
currently developing over the Black Hills. Most CAM guidance
suggests the brunt of this will remain to our N (thus only being
grazed by the Day 1 Marginal Risk)...but this batch is expected
to be more organized...and sometimes these complexes can turn a
little more southerly than models indicate.

Can`t rule out some elevated showers/weak storms over portions
of south central Nebraska during the day Wednesday, but
significantly higher chances for rain arrive on Wednesday night.
Appears this activity will focus the most over areas mainly
W/NW/N of the Tri-Cities, but the entire forecast area will at
least stand a chance of seeing something. There is a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) for severe weather for the aforementioned most-
favorable corridor, with the main risk being damaging winds and
large hail. The combination of strong instability and
seasonably strong deep layer shear argues for at least SOME
risk for a more organized upscale growth/MCS and damaging wind
threat to evolve out of the initial development over W NE/SD Wed
eve- night. However, there remains some uncertainty on the
overall strength and placement of the low level jet, which may
be displaced further E. The general pattern, conceptually, is
one that favors MCSs rolling off the High Plains, so this is a
trend we`ll need to monitor closely, esp. for areas N of I-80.

Frequent, essentially daily, rain/storm chances continue
Thursday eve/night and into the weekend. Finer details are
murky, at best...but would expect efficient rain makers given
coherent connection to monsoonal moisture that`s pulled
northward on the backside of the high pressure over the Deep
South. Also, proximity to seasonably strong mid/upper flow
argues for non-zero severe risk, as well...esp. as it pertains
to possibly one or two more organized MCSs in the evening and
overnight hours. Upper ridging may begin to reassert itself and
lead to lower rain chances next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Mostly clear skies and light winds expected through the evening.

Late tonight, a weak front will sag into the area from the N,
which will bring increasing mid to high clouds and shift to
mainly NErly wind. Two aviation items that are possible, but
currently low probability/confidence: 1) a few showers and/or
weak storms (better chances to the N and W) 2) brief stratus
and/or fog around dawn, just behind the front. Of the two, the
stratus/fog seems mostly unlikely given likely propensity for
significant mid to high clouds...but moisture is high and winds
will be relatively weak.

Other than the potential Wednesday AM caveats...the rest of the
day should be fairly quiet with a mix of sun and clouds and
modest E to NE winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.
     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ007-018-
     019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies