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000
FXUS63 KGID 202051
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Frankly, the previous forecast had most of the short term issues
well in hand, including drizzle/light showers Wednesday, some
thunderstorm risk in southeast forecast area and advancing cold
front Thursday. In the longer term, things are more uncertain now
for the weekend, as models are in less agreement (not that great
in the first place) regarding precipitation potential, though the
cold air influx is solid.

We are seeing the last vestiges of the low clouds start to move
east of the forecast ahead of a surface trough. The trough will
pass/die out this evening. Look for clear to partly cloudy
skies tonight and some patchy frost in some areas as lows dip
into the 30s.

Winds will veer to east/southeast by dawn and the return flow
will bring moisture from the south in the form of low clouds
spreading north from Kansas. Warm moisture advection will
result in some drizzle over at least the southeast half of
the area especially by afternoon/evening. Wednesday will turn
into a gloomy day and night for most areas. A strong low level
jet will scream for southeast Nebraska overnight Wednesday and
and isolated thunderstorm is possible mainly east of Highway
81 and south of York, or just a sliver of the forecast area.

Thursday is a multi-seasonal day for the region with temperatures
warming nicely ahead of a strong cold front slated to moving
across the area during the day. The front will act to clear out
the low level moisture but could spark a few showers/drizzle
as it passes/just ahead of it. There is a very small chance an
isolated thunderstorm could pop around 6 pm in southeast Mitchell
County. The forecast reflects that chance, but gut feeling is the
storms will be southeast of the forecast area. Anyway, the cold
front cause falling afternoon temperatures for much of the area
with much colder air settling Thursday night. Thursday night looks
like a another freeze potential night, with some areas seeing a
hard freeze.

Friday is flat cold with a stiff north wind through at
least early afternoon. High temperatures will be 20-25
degrees below normal but it will be dry generally speaking.

After a mostly dry and chilly day Saturday, uncertainty is
more problematic for the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Models
are not in good agreement with anything but the cold. The
precipitation chances appearing to waning a bit at this time as
the upper energy wants to become more cutoff further
west/southwest and not move through the area right away. Could
accumulating snow occur...sure. Could no significant snow
occur...sure. Its too early and uncertain to pin this one down.
Stay tuned on that.

As mentioned, the cold is firm for the forecast and Monday
morning is likely the coldest morning of the fall season
with anomalously cold air. Lows in the teens are likely
across the north and it may be even colder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Though thinning/lifting, MVFR ceilings will linger in the
KGRI/KEAR area the first few hours of the TAF. However, clouds
are already responding to an advancing surface trough which
will force low clouds east and shift winds to the west/northwest
by late afternoon/evening. Light winds will continue overnight
and gradually veer to the east/southeast by Wednesday morning
as weak high pressure moves through Missouri River valley.

No visibility restrictions or precipitation are forecast. Aside
from the lower clouds early on, only mid/high level clouds will
travel across thru midday Wednesday.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz