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162
FXUS63 KGID 171133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Could be a few warm air advection type pop-ups that could give us
a sprinkle, but overall will not be enough to warrant POPs this
morning.

The big news for today remains the wind as the surface pressure
gradient will be a solid 7 mb across the CWA. Good mixing to near
800 mb or higher as near 40kt winds allow good mixing and decent
momentum transfer with some but not a lot of veering of wind
direction below 800 mb. This should give us surface gusts to
around 40 mph expect by afternoon from the south. Less cloud cover
today compared to the cirrus we had on Monday and we should have
no problem getting to near 90 for highs with the strong south
wind.

Tonight will be much the same as what we had last night with a
solid south breeze with an approaching cold front from the
northwest. I did lower chances of precip to slight chance as the
trend warrants. This does not look like a particularly impressive
rain maker as the best support remains well northeast of our area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

As a shortwave trough moves northeast into the northern Plains,
the associated cold front will be slicing through the CWA on
Wednesday and this will be a tough call for highs and will
probably be widely variable from north to south. I would expect
some locations in our far north to have trouble getting much above
around 80, with potential for 90s for much of north central
Kansas, ahead of the surface cold front. Also, we could have at
least some scattered surface-based convection along the front.
Although we are not outlooked, I would not be surprised of a
couple storms becoming severe as instability will likely be
strong, although shear will be on the weak side. Later into the
evening, some elevated convection looks like it could fire up
behind the surface cold front. This looks like it would be non-
severe if this were to occur.

The extended period continues to look active as multiple waves
could give us a shot at more weather. Confidence is low with any
forecast specifics for the rest of the extended forecast. Friday
does look windy out of the south ahead of a cold front, and it
does appear that we could finally get some truly drier air in by
Saturday with another cold front.

The forecast is pretty much dry after Sunday and temperatures look
like they get closer to normal, confidence is not the highest
here.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

LLWS remains the top concern for this forecast, as there will be
lingering LLWS this morning before wind speeds eventually pick up
and low-level jet backs off. Then, pilots will need to deal with
rather gusty wind for this time of year near the surface for this
afternoon, especially. LLWS returns tonight as the strong low-
level jet develops ahead of an approaching cold front. LLWS may
back off at the tail end of this forecast as the cold front nears
toward 12Z Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

..Hastings (airport) flirting with record-warm minimum
temperature for today, Sep. 17..

As of this writing, the low temperature SO FAR today at Hastings
airport has only dropped to 73 degrees. The current Sep. 17th
record for warmest-minimum temperature is 72 degrees, set in 1955.
Based on official 30-year normals, the "normal" Sep. 17 low
temperature for Hastings is a considerably-cooler 54 degrees.

PLEASE NOTE: for today`s possible record (or a tie) to become
official, it will have to "survive" both the next few hours of
possible cooling this morning, and also last through midnight
(CST) this evening, both of which could be fairly "close calls".

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch