829
FXUS63 KGID 122320
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) Sunday afternoon-
  evening north of I-80.

- Warm on Tuesday with highs in the 90s and heat index values
  around 100 degrees.

- Active weather Tuesday evening onwards with multiple chances
  (20- 50%) for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025


This Afternoon and Tonight...

It has been a pleasant day across the area under partly-mostly
cloudy skies and light winds. Temperatures this afternoon are
currently sitting in the mid to upper 70s around 10-15 degrees
cooler than their climatological "normals". Dewpoints today have
also been lower (generally below 60), further aiding the pleasant
conditions for those outdoors today. A trough moving through the
Midwest and ridging over the West Coast places the area under
northwesterly flow aloft. Mostly clear skies and light winds will
result in temperatures dropping into the low to mid 60s
overnight.

Sunday...

Warm Air Advection could aid the development of a few isolated
showers across far northeastern portions of the area during the
early morning hours on Sunday. Forecast soundings show a dry air in
the low levels, meaning that little more than sprinkles will
reach the ground. The warm air advection will help highs to
climb back to their climatological normals, in the upper 80s to
low 90s. A cold front will move into north central Nebraska
during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Scattered to isolated
thunderstorm development is possible along this front during
the afternon-evening hours (4-7pm). Steep low level lapse rates
will result in SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/Kg. Poor mid-level
lapse rates and modest shear (25kts or less) should keep a limit
on how strong storms can get. Still, given the forecast
instability, can`t rule out a stronger storm capable of
producing small hail and gusty winds. For now have introduced an
area of 15-20% PoPs for areas along and north of a Miller to
Genoa line but this may change depending on model trends. Any
storm will come to an end before sunset as they get away from
peak heating. Lows Sunday night will be in the 60s.

Monday...

Upper level flow will shift from northwesterly to zonal on Monday.
Highs on Monday will be slightly warmer, in the low to mid 90s with
southerly winds of 10-15mph. Dry weather is expected across the area
on Monday as the atmosphere remains capped.

Tuesday Onwards...

Warm weather is expected on Tuesday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Highs will climb into the 90s, with portions of
north central Kansas nearing the 100s. Heat index values around 100
degrees is expected on Tuesday due to the combination of warm
temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s.
Thunderstorm chances return to the area Tuesday evening as
thunderstorms move in from the western high plains. An active
pattern continues through the rest of the forecast period, with
chances (20-50%) for thunderstorms each day. Cooler weather is
possible across portions of the area Wednesday-Friday, but will
depend on the position of a stationary front and the exact
strength of any passing shortwave trough. Highs will range from
the upper 70s to the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions persist at both terminals through the forecast
period. Winds will be light and variable through mid-morning
tomorrow, before becoming southwest around 5-10kts. A few
passing high clouds will continue to move into our area around
an area of low pressure centered over the Kansas/Oklahoma
border through tonight. There is a 20% chance of showers/storms
north of the terminals tomorrow afternoon, but at the moment,
they are not currently forecast to make it south to KEAR or
KGRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Wekesser