349
FXUS63 KGID 181736
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1136 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold Arctic air mass will dominate the entire region
  through early next week.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for south central
  Nebraska portion of our forecast area from midnight tonight
  through 12pm Tuesday. Wind chill values of -15 to -25 degrees
  are expected, at times.

- Coldest period looks to be Monday-Monday night in which the
  Cold Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into north
  central Kansas.

- Near to above normal temperatures return by the middle to end
  of next week. Other than some brief instances of flurries or
  very light snow, dry weather is expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Very cold air continues to work it`s way into the area on stiff
Nrly winds, sustained 15-25 MPH, and gusts 30-35 MPH. It was
only just a couple hours ago we were still experiencing gusts of
40-45 MPH for parts of the area. Some steaks of flurries have
accompanied the stratus streaming in from the N, which is pretty
typical of strong cold air advection in these types of regimes.
Based on model forecast soundings and sim reflectivity, could
see flurries continue for another couple hours before large
scale subsidence kicks in. Temps within the stratus will remain
in favorable range for squeezing out flurries off and on during
the day today, but chances/impact too low/marginal to include at
this time. Main story will be continued blustery N winds and
temperatures that go virtually nowhere today. Low to mid teens
currently will give way to only upper teens to lower 20s this
aftn. Wind chills will avg single digits above/below zero
through the daytime hours.

Gradually clearing skies and continued cold air advection will
allow for even colder air temperatures tonight, around -5 to 5.
Winds will decr substantially from the daytime hrs, but still
remain steady around 10-15 MPH. This will drop wind chills into
Cold Weather Advisory criteria around -20F for most of south
central Nebraska, which goes into effect at midnight.

Cold and blustery conditions continue on Sunday before winds let
up some Sunday night. Nonetheless, highs only in the teens and
lows once again in the single digits above/below zero will not
provide much relief. Wind chills are technically forecast to be
pretty marginal for Cold Weather Advisory, but with another
surge expected to arrive on Monday, didn`t want to get too cute
and send the message Sunday is going to be noticeably better.

With the surge of additional bitterly cold air on Monday will
come the potential for more flurries, and perhaps even a W-E
band of light snow that grazes portions of our KS zones. Areas
roughly along Hwy 36, and esp. S of Hwy 24, look to have the
best chances for a light dusting to half inch of snow accum.
Wind chills likely remain below zero essentially all day for our
NE zones, with KS zones only rising into the single digits above
zero. Coldest air of the season on track for Mon night in which
air temps will avg between -5 and -10. Even lgt breezes will be
able to knock wind chills down to at least -15 to -20. Will more
than likely need to expand the Cold Weather Advisory into our KS
zones, either later today or on Sunday, for Monday night.

Should start to climb out of the bitter cold on Tuesday, with
perhaps even a return to normal temperatures on Wednesday. In
general, most of the later half of next week, and perhaps even
into next weekend, looks to be mostly near to above normal for
temperatures. There doesn`t appear to be any significant chances
for appreciable moisture over the next 7 days, at least.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Satellite shows cloud coverage gradually scattering out,
therefore VFR conditions are expected to return this afternoon.
Overall, VFR conditions are favored through the rest of the
period. That being said, some low to mid-level clouds will
persist, and there is a low (20-40%) chance for MVFR ceilings
to return at least briefly late this afternoon into tonight.

North winds gust over 25kts through this afternoon before slowly
diminishing tonight into Sunday.

Clear skies return for Sunday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
     Tuesday for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Mangels