Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 030556
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1156 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

Key Messages:

* Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions remain a
  concern across southern portions of the CWA over the next couple
  hours, so will keep the Red Flag Warning as is through 6 PM.

* Though the area of highest wind gusts the rest of this
  afternoon/evening looks to be primarily focused across western
  portions of KS, the threat for isolated gusts near 60 MPH
  remains, so will also keep the High Winds Warning as is through
  10 PM. There is a chance this may be cancelled early.

* The majority of this 7-day forecast is dry. Precipitation
  chances are lower-confidence at this point, and are in the
  Monday night and Wed night-Thursday time frames.

Though dry across the region, it certainly hasn`t been a quiet and
calm day, as a strong surface cold front continues to push south. In
the mid-upper levels, satellite and upper air data show a trough
axis continuing to push east through the Nrn/Central Plains, the
main driver of this sfc front. As models had shown the past couple
days, pressure rises have been hefty behind the front, a trend that
will continue south-southeastward through the rest of the day. Here
at mid-afternoon, the stronger gusts are working their way into the
northern/western fringes of the CWA, with higher gusts currently
focused just off to our west. Skies have gradually cleared through
the day, making it easy to pick out the impressive wall of dust that
developed around midday along the sfc front, and has intensified as
it treks SSE through western KS. HRRR has been handling things fairly
well today, and continues to focus the worst of both the wind/dust
just off to our WSW through the rest of this afternoon. If anything,
the front moved in just a touch faster than forecast, and while some
timing adjustments were made with time to wind, temps,
dewpoints...overall there hasn`t been any surprises. Will be keeping
a close eye on how that main area of dust trends over the next
couple hours and its potential impact on our western areas to see if
any type of shorter-fused dust headline may be needed.

As far as the headlines go, will keep things as is at this point.
For the Red Flag Warning across our south, sub-20% RH values are
solidly in place, winds are switching and remain gusty...once the
colder air builds in the RH values will climb, but the warning only
runs until 6PM so am fine letting it ride for now. The High Wind
Warning for areas along/south of Interstate 80 runs through 10 PM.
Compared to 24hrs ago and even last night`s mid shift runs, models
today have trended back a touch on the highest gust potential for
our CWA...as mentioned above, keeping the worst of it just off to
our WSW. However, especially for roughly the west-southwest third or
so of the CWA, certainly not ruling out at least isolated gusts near
60 MPH through this evening...so will keep the warning going as is
as well.

Mid-evening through the overnight hours tonight, winds will taper
off. Models remain in good agreement showing sfc high pressure
continue to sink southeast out of the Nrn Rockies, settling over the
heart of the Central Plains by sunrise Saturday. Could have some
gusty conditions linger through late evening/midnight across far ESE
areas, but after midnight speeds to diminish to closer to 5-10 MPH.
With skies expected to remain mostly clear and a cooler air mass
accompanying that sfc high, overnight lows tonight are forecast to
fall into the single digits above zero in NWrn portions of the area,
with low-mid teens across the SSE.

This weekend...

In the wake of this mid-upper level trough axis sliding east today,
models continues to show zonal flow setting up across the region,
with an overall lack of any notable disturbances to bring us
precipitation chances. At the surface, we`ll see a fairly quick
return of southerly winds during the daytime hours tomorrow as the
main area of high pressure slides east...and there will be the
potential for gusty winds during the afternoon for areas along/west
of HWY 183. Not looking at anything like today, but gusts near 20-25
MPH will be possible. The cooler airmass looks to keep highs for
Saturday in the mid 30s east to low 40s west...and while skies are
mostly clear to start the day, increasing upper level clouds are
expected during the afternoon.  Lighter winds are expected for
Sunday, with a bump up in highs into the mid 40s to near 50.

Next week - Monday through Friday...

With the busier ongoing short-term, didn`t spend a lot of time
fretting over the details of the longer term forecast. For the most
part, dry conditions are expected, with two main chances for any
preciptiation. The first chance comes Monday night with the arrival
of a low-amplitude shortwave embedded in the continued zonal flow.
However, overall confidence is low...as models/NBM have gone back
and forth with whether or not our CWA sees anything, if we do -
when, etc. PoPs are low, and chances look like they`d mainly affect
portions of south central NE with some light snow. The other chances
are focused in the Wed night-Thurs time frame...but similar to
Monday, confidence is low.

As far as temperatures go, currently not looking at any significant
swings either way in temperatures...with highs generally in the
30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2022

- General overview (including ceiling/visibility/precip):
This is a very high confidence VFR ceiling/visibility period, with
only increasing high level clouds mainly during the latter half,
and zero chance of precipitation. That leaves winds and LLWS as
the main concern, albeit not to the degree that they were over the
past 12-18 hours (see below).

- Surface winds:
Although winds will not be as strong during the period as they
were Friday, they will nonetheless be modestly-breezy at times,
and will undergo a significant directional shift over time.
Starting out early this morning, we have a few more hours of
breezy northwest winds (gusts 15-20KT) before several hours of
lighter speeds kick in as direction transitions to
westerly/southwesterly. However, by the afternoon hours speeds
will increase out of the south-southwest, with several hours of
sustained around 15KT/gusts 20+KT. By early evening the gustiness
will subside with sustained southerlies around 10KT in the
evening.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
There are actually two distinct, marginally-strong LLWS groups
during the period:
1) Right away these first 3-4 hours, roughly 30 KT of shear
magnitude will persist between the surface and roughly 2K ft. AGL,
as winds as that level will remain up around 40KT from the
northwest.

2) Late in the period Saturday evening, have introduced another
marginally-strong round of LLWS starting 02Z. This one will also
feature roughly 30KT of shear, as winds will increase to around
35KT out of the southwest.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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