492
FXUS63 KGID 160405
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1105 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue tonight. Most
  will be weak and light, but a few could produce isolated heavy
  rainfall and localized, minor flooding.

- Off and on showers and thunderstorms continue across portions
  of the area through Saturday night. Timing will favor the
  evening/overnight hours.

- Areas of fog are possible Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning.

- Gradually warming conditions are expected through Friday (80s
  and low 90s), but cooler days return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

An upper trough is centered over the Pacific Northwest with an upper
ridge centered over the southeast part of the country. South central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these 2
features. A surface high is across the area behind the cold front
that moved through last night/early this morning. There is enhanced
atmospheric lift along and just behind the cold front which has
resulted in the development of some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the area. Severe storms are not expected with higher
stability behind the front. Additional development of showers and
storms is expected through the rest of the afternoon and again
tonight. High temperatures today will generally range from the mid
60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 50s
with some lower 60s.

The upper ridge expands further west over the southern Plains and
portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. This will result in
some portions of north central Kansas warming up into the low 80s.
Otherwise, high temperatures will mainly be in the 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible (up to around 50% chance) on
Wednesday as upper lift increases over the area from shortwave
troughs moving overhead. Low temperatures Wednesday night will
mainly be in the 60s with light, easterly winds. Chances of showers
and storms continue through Wednesday night with chances up to
around 70%. Temperatures are expected to warm up some on Thursday
but the amount of warming is uncertain due to model differences in
positioning of the upper ridge and surface boundaries. Temperatures
will warm even further on Friday with a surface trough strengthening
across much of the area. Various rain and storm chances continue
Thursday and Friday as upper disturbances move over/near the area.

Temperatures will cool beginning on Saturday with another cold front
moving into the area. Also, an upper trough from the west will move
towards and over the northern and central Plains through early next
week displacing the upper ridge that was over/near the region. There
is some uncertainty in temperatures during the weekend and early
next week but most areas are expected to be in the 70s. Various rain
and storm chances continue Saturday and Sunday with an increase in
atmospheric lift due to the cold front and approaching upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are slowly falling over central Nebraska and this will
continue through sunrise. IFR ceilings are likely through
Wednesday morning and into the afternoon before gradually
improving.

A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out the potential for
lightning in the EAR/GRI has decreased enough that the PROB30
TSRA has been removed.

Winds remain light through the period, turning from the
northeast to southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels