049
FXUS63 KGID 040919
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
419 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A Warm and windy day is expected today with highs in the upper
  80s to low 90s with southerly winds gusting up to 35-50 MPH
  (sustained 25-35MPH). These factors will contribute to an
  elevated to near-critical fire weather threat this afternoon
  and evening.

- A few (non-severe) storms may cross into a few
  western/northwestern parts of the area between 11PM to 6AM
  overnight tonight (20-40% chance).

- A cold front passage Sunday morning will bring the best storm
  chance of the weekend (40-85% chances and greatest to the
  southeast) after mainly 4PM. A few of these storms could
  become strong to marginally severe (Marginal Risk of severe
  weather across a few southeastern portions of the area).

- Cooler temperatures will be evident Monday with highs only in
  the mid 50s to mid 60s. A gradual warmup will likely follow
  through the remainder of next week (highs back to the mid to
  upper 70s by next Saturday).

- A few other storm/precip chances lie Monday evening/night
  (20-45% chance) as well as Wednesday (20-25% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025


Short Term...(Today and Sunday)

A warm and windy day is ahead as a compressed surface gradient
invigorates strong southerly winds for this afternoon and
evening. These winds will blow between 20-35MPH with gusts
mainly between 35 and 45MPH. A few occasional gusts, however,
could reach up to 50MPH in a few places. Temperature wise, clear
skies with a strong southerly warm air advecting wind will help
lift highs into the upper 80s to low 90s or around 15-20
degrees above normal for this time of year. Despite the strong
winds, relative humidity values are forecast to fall just short
of red flag warning criteria, though Elevated fire weather
conditions will likely be met. For more information on the fire
weather potential for today, please refer to the fire weather
section below.

Synoptically speaking, the high pressure ridge that has hovered over
the area from the last two days, is in the process of being shoved
to the side as a slightly negatively tilted trough hikes in
over the Rockies. At the surface, pressure falls across the
Rockies and Northern Plains claim responsible to the compressed
surface gradient driving the strong winds today. In addition, a
cold front emerging out of the upper plains this evening will
push eastward through the night, reaching the area Sunday
morning.

In terms of precipitation, a few non-severe storms may cross
through western Nebraska late tonight, potentially grazing a few
of our northern and western portions of the area between 11PM
and 6AM. Chances of precipitation increase up to 20-40% for
places mainly north and west of the Tri-Cities. These PoPs
remain somewhat low as there is some uncertainty to how
expansive or how long lasting these storms may be given limited
forcing/instability overnight.

The cold front Sunday morning will drop temperatures a few degrees
from Saturday (around 5-10 degrees) with highs into the mid 70s to
mid 80s and generally cooler to the northwest (areas where the
front passes over sooner). Winds behind the front will swing out
of the north Sunday afternoon, blowing between 10-15MPH and
gusting up to 20-25MPH. This front should slowly lose its
forward momentum in the afternoon and evening, stalling across
north central Kansas to eastern Nebraska. Scattered storms look
likely to redevelop along the front`s broad convergence zone in
the afternoon to nighttime hours (generally after 4PM). Given
the boundaries location, the overall best precipitation chances
Sunday (60-85%) will be reserved for our southeastern half of
the area. A mesh of storms with showers filling in the gaps
could deposit up to just over an inch of precipitation across a
few north central Kansas and southeastern Nebraska areas. Most
of the area, however, may only receive between 0.1-0.5" across
much of our central (Tri-Cities) and northwestern areas (places
further away the front).

The convective environment may be conducive to support a few
strong to marginally severe storms for areas mainly south of
I-80. Modeled soundings suggest there to be up to around 1000J
of MUCAPE with a modest 30-50kts of deep layer shear. Lapse
rates do not appear overly impressive behind the front (<5
C/km), however, a storm or two producing gusty winds up to 60MPH
or producing some hail up to the size of quarters would not be
a total surprise. The SPC includes areas southeast of a line
from Stockton, KS up to Geneva, NE in a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5).



Long Term...(Monday and Beyond)

Much cooler temperatures Monday following Sunday`s cold frontal
passage and mostly cloudy skies with limit highs to the mid 50s to
mid 60s. Winds (15-20MPH and gusting up to 25MPH) should become more
northeasterly oriented as the surface pressure continues to
raise behind the front. Another shot of precipitation could
return Monday evening/night for locations mainly south to
southeast of the Tri- Cities. The coverage of storms and showers
will likely not exceed Sunday`s event. PoPs only stretch up to
20-45%.

Temperatures will gradually rise back up to the mid to upper 70s by
the end of next week. Another shortwave trough is favored to
pass across the Central and Northern Plains sometime during the
middle of next week. This disturbance could spark a few storms
Wednesday and Wednesday night (20-25% chance).


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Windy conditions with periods of LLWS will be the primary
aviation hazards tonight and Saturday. Winds will remain out of
the due south today, blowing between 20-30kts and gusting up to
35-40kts in the afternoon and evening. 45-50kts of LLWS will be
present trough 15z Saturday morning and will return back around
2z in the evening from a strengthened low-level jet. A few
clouds will swing in from the west Saturday night, brining a
small chance (20%) for non-severe storms for KEAR after 4z and
for KGRI after 6z. Ceilings are expected to stay VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Seasonably warm temperatures today mixed with strong southerly winds
will result in elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns.
Dewpoints in the 50s (partially aided from the southerly
moisture transport) should keep relative humidity values just
from reaching critical fire weather values (RH as low as
20-40%). The driest and generally the worst conditions will be
concentrated towards the west (lowest RH values).

Though conditions may fall just shy of critical fire weather
conditions, dry cropland and harvest operations could still result
in some ignitions. Generally most vegetation and grasses appear
to be "greener" than usual for this time of year (for early
October standards) and appear to still be in the process of
curing/drying. Because of the borderline humidity and fuels,
fire weather headlines are not expected at this time.
Nevertheless, outdoor burning is not recommended, especially for
the drier areas towards western Kansas and southwestern
Nebraska.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Stump