402
FXUS63 KGID 162330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and pleasant tonight through Monday evening.

- Thunderstorm chances return Monday night and again late
  Tuesday afternoon into the overnight. Some of these storms
  could be strong to severe. Large hail, damaging winds, and
  locally heavy rain are the primary threats.

- Areas that remain ahead of a cold front on Tuesday -
  particularly northern Kansas - will be hot with highs in the
  mid to upper 90s. Cooler temperatures (70s-80s) return behind
  the front for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Decent rain chances (40-60%) continue into Wednesday and
  Wednesday night before decreasing to off and on 20-30% chances
  for the remainder of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Absolutely gorgeous late summer weather out there this afternoon
and evening. Get out and enjoy it if you can. Quiet conditions
look to persist tonight and through most, if not all, of the
daylight hours Monday. Highs should climb 3-5 degrees most
location for Monday given the quieter/sunnier start to the day,
but still seasonable in the 83-88 degree range.

Next chance for storms will come from convection that develops
along a cold front over north central Nebraska late Monday
afternoon, then moves SE during the evening and overnight.
Expect a general evolution - in terms of intensity - fairly
similar to recent weeks in that the strongest activity will be
prior to 9-10PM, then gradual weakening thereafter. This would
place the highest severe chances just NW of the local area,
right where SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). What does make
it into the area would probably be in the form of one or two
small clusters and pose primarily a risk for 50-60 MPH gusts.

The aforementioned front looks to drape somewhere across the
area on Tuesday - with the ultimate location being somewhat
reliant upon how strong/widespread Monday night`s activity is.
Northern Kansas is most likely to remain storm/outflow free the
longest, so these locations could get quite warm by Tuesday
afternoon with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s. Add in a
little bit of humidity (not as much as further E/NE, though) and
heat indices could sneak into the lower 100s. The weather
headline for Tuesday, however, will be chances for at least
scattered storms to develop over the area during the late
afternoon and evening. Pooling moisture and insolation ahead of
the composite outflow/front should support moderate to strong
instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 2-3K J/kg. Forecast
soundings from various guidance at 21Z Tue also show seasonably
strong deep layer shear of 30-40kt amidst relatively straight
hodographs above 1-2km. This should support initial splitting
supercells with both large hail and wind threat...then gradual
upscale growth into one or two clusters and transition to
primarily a damaging wind threat for the late evening into
early overnight hours. Agree with the latest SPC outlook showing
a broad Slight risk category across the area - including the
recent inclusion of a Cig 1 delineation.

Expect cooler temperatures behind the front Wednesday-Thursday,
and may see another couple rounds of showers and storms, most
favored during the evening and overnight hours. Confidence on
details, though, is quite low.

Pattern may quiet down some heading into next weekend and warm
back to, or even above, seasonable levels for temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period.
Winds will be light and variable through most of the evening as
a high pressure center resides in the area. As the
thunderstorms currently in CO make their way eastward (well
away from the terminals), their anvils will shadow the area,
causing some high level ceilings overnight. Tomorrow, skies will
be mostly clear with SSW winds around 7-10kt, though a few
gusts up to 18 kt can`t be ruled out.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Scott