785
FXUS63 KGID 152258
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The confidence of precipitation for Monday has significantly decreased
  (now <20% chances). A few places, especially areas north or
  east of the Tri-Cities, could still receive a trace to a few
  hundredths of precipitation, though a majority of the area
  should remain dry.

- Temperatures sliding down early next week will settle with
  highs projected to range the 50s to low 60s for TUE/WED and
  the mid 40s to 50s THU/FRI.

- Another chance of precipitation may come later next week with
  precipitation chances peaking Thursday night (25-45% with
  the greatest potential towards the southeast).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025


Tonight through Monday...

A cold front passing through to the south early today has kept highs
around 10-15 degrees cooler this afternoon (upper 60s to mid 70s)
compared to yesterds`s record temperatures. This feature`s passage
was evident by the northward flip in winds directions this morning.
Higher surface pressure building across the north plains tonight and
sunday will help to maintain light and variable winds turning
eastward overnight followed by some steady 10-15MPH southeasterlies
for Sunday.

Some fog development Sunday morning can`t be ruled out given the
gentle easterly upsloping flow and the near saturated
temp/dewpoints (both lows and dewpoints as low as the 30s to low
40s). A few clouds overhead could limit the diurnal cooling to a
degree, in what could be the difference between widespread dense fog
and areas of patchy fog. The overall best potential should fall west
of HWY-281 and north of the state line. Around 40% of the REFS
ensemble members as well as close to 50% of the HREF ensemble
members suggest the potential for some coverage of fog. Beyond the
morning fog potential, highs for Sunday will continue to slide down
a few degrees into the 60s.

The next major pattern change will arrive Monday as a simi-cutoff
shortwave trough gets shoved into the Central Plains. Recently there
has been some question around the amount of precipitation that this
system will churn out with the global models (GFS/ECMWF) now
appearing to be point towards mostly dry conditions for the area. The
general consensus shows a weak surface low forming off the western
Rockies and moving east across primarily northern Kansas through the
day. Beyond temporarily nudging wind directions towards the north
as it passes by to the south, a few scattered and light showers
could materialize across a few far north and northeastern areas
during the afternoon and evening hours Monday.

In terms of precipitation chances, the total shower coverage has
decreased with both the GFS and ECMWF now analyzing most of the
precipitation towards northern Nebraska and South Dakota. Our latest
PoPs reflect this northward shift in confidence as now all places
have PoPs below 15% beyond a limited far northern and northeastern
locations (only up to 20%). Amount wise, only a handful of places
may even see more than a trace with likely far more areas missed
than hit. Temperates in the mid 50s to mid 60s during the day would
keep any falling precipitation in the forum of liquid.


Tuesday and Beyond...

Temperatures next week will eventually stabilize Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs resting in the 50s to low 60s. Persistent cloud
coverage starting Tuesday/Wednesday may stick around for a majority
of the time through Friday. The mostly cloudy skies paired with a
steady northerly wind component Thursday and Friday should allow
temperatures to drop a few more degrees into the the mid 40s to mid
50s to finish out the week. Friday`s temperates could become the
coolest of the week (mid 40s to low 50s).

Another Western U.S. trough is favored to take a more southern route
across the Central U.S. near the end of the week (around Thursday).
This second system could bring parts of the area a better shot at
precipitation compared to Monday`s event. Cluster analysis by the 0z
LREF shows two possible outcomes near the end of next week reliant
on the mid-to-upper level patten. The leading cluster (most likely
scenario) explaining 29% of the ensemble member variance with greater
contribution of the european ensemble (ENS), showed a flatter and
less amplified troughing patten that keep precipitation amounts on
the more reserved end (0.1-0.25") with cooler temperatures heading
into Friday. Meanwhile, the second leading cluster (alternate
scenario) explaining only 20% of the variance and more contribution
from the american ensemble (GEFS), showed a more amplified troughing
pattern with a slightly wetter signal (0.25-0.75") and with warmer
temperatures heading into Friday. The conclusion that can be taken
away from this cluster analysis is that a more amplified trough next
week could increase precipitation chance/amounts as well as
influence slightly warmer temperatures near the end of the week.

Forecast wise, the NBM keeps precipitation chances between 25-45%
with the highest PoPs concentrated towards the southeast (areas
closer to the system center). Timing wise, the highest confidence
currently resides Thursday night, though the earliest inclusion of
precipitation chances begin Wednesday evening and end by Friday
afternoon. The possibility of a period of mixed precipitation or
brief snow can`t be 100% ruled out quite yet (some areas of sub-
freezing temperatures late Thursday night) though a vast majority of
the precipitation should fall as rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some minor
fog/mist cannot be totally ruled out Sunday morning, but the
probability for anything MVFR or lower is very low (5-10%).

Winds turn back to the south for Sunday, with gusts in the
10-20kt range during hte afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Mangels