843
FXUS63 KGID 021132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
532 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries may be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
  though accumulating snow is not likely.

- A cold frontal passage Wednesday will chop highs by 5-15
  degrees, from the mid 30s to upper 40s this afternoon to the
  low to mid 30s Wednesday.

- The coldest night of the week, following the frontal passage,
  will occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Lows will
  drop to the single digits to just below 0 for a few locations
  east of the Tri-Cities. (Wind chills as low as -10 to 5
  degrees)

- The rest of the week is dry with temperatures filp-flopping
  between the 20/30s and 40/50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025


A mild and quiet day is ahead with highs back up into the mid 30s to
upper 40s. This warmup, mainly influenced by the presence of steady
5-15MPH southeasterly downsloping winds, should help orchestrate some
melting snow this afternoon. Later, a mid-to-upper level trough will
drop down into the Mountain West Region, brining along a cold front
down with it. This front will pass south across Central NE/KS
through the day Wednesday, dropping temperatures 5-15 degrees (highs
in the low to mid 30s). Though all of the accumulating snow should
likely fall west of the area, the potential for some flurries
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind the front can`t be ruled
out. For now we maintain a broad 6-12 hour period of flurries in our
forecast, though in reality, any flurry activity should be more
scattered and variable with time than consistent.

Beyond the flurries Wednesday morning, temperatures will fall to
their lowest point of the week Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Temperatures across the board will dip into the single
digits with areas mainly east of the Tri-Cities approaching and
falling a few degrees below 0 (to as low as -3 degrees). Though
winds will be light that morning, wind chills may still drop to as
low as -10 degrees in a few isolated northeast lying locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today and Tuesday...

Skies are clearing from west to east this afternoon behind a
departing disturbance. Temperatures are sitting in the 20s
(central/east) to low 30s (west). Any lingering flurries should exit
southeastern portions of the area by the late afternoon. Clear skies
and light winds tonight will result in temperatures dropping into
the single digits to low teens, coldest where the snowpack is the
deepest. Wind chill values Tuesday morning will hover around zero,
dropping below zero in periods of wind.

Southwesterly flow strengthens over the area on Tuesday, bringing a
welcome warmup to the area. Temperatures climb above freezing
across the area (mid 30s to mid 40s), allowing for at least some
melting of snow/ice. The warmest temperatures on Tuesday will
be across far western portions of the area where there is the
least snow on the ground. These areas could make a run at
temperatures near 50 degrees given favorable downslope winds.
Overall a relatively pleasant day is expected on Tuesday,
especially when compared to the past few days.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The next disturbance moves into the area on Wednesday, bringing
another shot of cold air to the area. The NBM currently keeps the
forecast area dry (PoPs < 10%) with this disturbance and
frontal passage. PoPs may eventually be needed Wednesday
morning, with HREF members showing the potential for scattered
light precipitation, and 12z ensemble members showing a 20-30%
chance for 0.01" of precipitation. If precipitation does occur,
it would likely be a light wintry mix.

Breezy-gusty winds move in behind the front on Wednesday, with
northerly winds gusting 25-30mph. Winds combined with highs only in
the low 30s results in a chilly feeling day across the area
(apparent temperatures in the teens to low 20s). Winds become light
Wednesday night as a high pressure system moves over the area.
Temperatures Wednesday night-Thursday morning will drop into the
single digits. Areas with the highest lingering snowpack (highway 81
and east) may see temperatures below zero around sunrise
Thursday morning. Thankfully, light winds keep wind chill values
"only" in the single digits below zero. Southerly winds
strengthen after sunrise, gusting 20-30mph. Highs on Thursday
range from the mid 20s along/east of Highway 81 to the upper 30s
west of highway 183.

Friday Onwards...

Temperatures climb back towards normal on Friday and Saturday under
northwesterly flow aloft. Highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s are
expected, warmest across southwestern portions of the area. The next
disturbance and shot of cold air arrives Saturday night-Sunday,
though this looks to be a quick cooldown before temperatures climb
back towards/above normal next week. The forecast remains dry
through the weekend, though it`s possible Saturday night/Sunday`s
system brings some light precipitation to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions will retain through the first part of the night
tonight (through 9z). Broken to overcast skies will dominate the
second half of the day with ceilings likely reaching MVFR
conditions before sunrise Wednesday (60-70% chance). A few brief
period of flurries can`t be ruled out across the overnight
hours, however, no accumulating snow is expected. Winds will
blow between 5-15kts today out of the southwest, becoming light
and variable this evening/night. Wind directions will continue
to swing clockwise towards the northwest overnight tonight as a
cold front approaches from the north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Stump
DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Stump