185
FXUS63 KGID 061132
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off-and-on periods of scattered showers and non-severe storms
  will continue across the full area this morning. Locations
  mainly south and east of the Tri-Cities could see
  precipitation lasting into part of the afternoon hours.

- There is a small chance (20-35%) for a few additional storms/showers
  redeveloping this evening and overnight for places along and
  south of the state line.

- Cooler temperatures are expected today (50s) as well as
  Tuesday and Wednesday (60s). Highs for the remainder of the
  week should range from the mid 70s to mid 80s.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025


Expect to see off-and-on periods of light to moderate rainfall
through much of the morning and potentially even a portion of the
early afternoon hours today. The aftermath from yesterday`s cold
front leaves a scattered cluster of mainly remnant showers with a
few storms sprinkled throughout the area. These showers/storms will
continue to gradually move north to northeast across the area for
rest of the morning and potentially even into the early afternoon
hours for areas mainly south and east of the Tri-Cities. Between
10AM and 2PM, the extent of precipitation is expected to shrink,
mostly clearing from west to east with the movement of these
showers.

It is possible for a few additional isolated showers to sneak back
into to a few Nebraska areas later this evening, however, any
accumulations should remain minor. For locations close to and south
of the state line, precipitation could stick around just a touch
longer into the afternoon and potentially even some of the overnight
hours (20-35% chance). In all, most places will be expected to
receive at least a sprinkle to 0.25" of precipitation. Places that
are "bullseyed" by any stronger or more persisting showers could
receive anywhere up to 0.5-1.5" more of precipitation though
primarily the morning hours (roughly for 1/4th of the area).

Besides the precipitation today, temperatures will also feel notable
cooler as highs struggle to break out of the 50s. Excessive cloud
coverage with northerly blowing winds pulling in a cooler and drier
airmass (10-15MPH and gusting up to 20MPH) should keep highs
between the low 50s to upper 50s. Temperatures Monday night will
likely fall down to their coldest point of the week. Lows are
expected to settle down to as low as the upper 30s for a few of our
far northwestern lying Nebraska locations. Most of the area,
however, should span the low to mid 40s.

Pressure at the surface behind Sunday`s front will rise through
Wednesday, keeping winds generally on the lighter end today and
Tuesday as their directions gradually turn back southerly for
Wednesday. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s. A
brisk 10-15 degree warmup will follow for Thursday with highs
ranging the mid 70s to mid 80s through the weekend.

Synoptically, an upper-level trough will push away with a more zonal
and less amplified pattern settling in aloft. Weak ridging,
typically offering a quieter weather period, will dominate the
period through the end of the week. This feature should keep any
precipitation chances locked out until potentially next week. PoPs
across the board remain below 15% through Saturday night. Long range
guidance favors troughing in the Pacific northwest next weekend.
Though the GFS/ECMWF don`t have this disturbance`s timing or
intensity agreed upon, it will be presumed for this troughing to
eventually move east and across a portion of the central U.S.,
likely stirring up the weather here locally next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

A few showers will continue to pass in and out of both terminals
within the next few hours (at least through 15-18z). A brief
drop in visibility with any heavier downpours could drop as low
as 4SM. Though showers can`t be completely ruled out after 18z,
coverage is expected to diminish substantially with any extra
accumulations likely on the minor side of things.

Conditions wise, ceilings are close to and approaching
MVFR heights. Several sites along the I-80 corridor have bases
around 3,000ft for the last hour, giving us confidence that
KEAR/KGRI may be next. There is a 60% chance that these MVFR
ceilings maintain through 18z, dropping as low as 2,000ft.

Winds should remain stable and out of the north-northeast (20-40
degrees), blowing between 10-15kts through the afternoon. Winds
overnight will likely become calm.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump