912
FXUS63 KGID 160543
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1243 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower/storm chances will continue on through the
  rest of tonight...with coverage potentially more isolated in
  nature during the daytime hours today. While it`s not out of
  the question some storms could be strong at times, the
  overall threat for severe weather remains on the lower side.

- Additional storm chances later this evening/overnight tonight
  look to be mainly be focused across the SSErn half or so of
  the forecast area. Again, overall severe threat is low. Models
  showing an increased potential for fog late tonight...some
  showing dense fog not out of the question.

- Continued southwesterly flow aloft through the end of the week
  keeps the pattern unsettled with periodic precipitation
  chances...with the main upper level low/trough axis looking to
  move through the Plains roughly in the Sat night-Sun time
  frame. Still lot of details to iron out, so overall confidence
  is on the low side.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing continued southwesterly
flow in place across the Central Plains tonight...set up
between an area of high pressure anchored over the southeastern
CONUS, weakening/broad troughing over the Hudson Bay area, and
another area of low pressure working its way south along the
West Coast. Radar data showing isolated/scattered showers and
storms impacting the area...driven by more subtle lower-mid
level forcing. Models showing the better instability remaining
focused along/south of our SSErn counties, though some elevated
instability may work its way back north with time. Can`t rule
out some stronger storms, but the overall threat for severe
weather remains on the lower side...some small hail/gusty winds
are possible, as is at times heavy rainfall rates. At the
surface, the forecast area remains under the influence of an
overall weaker pattern, with the main frontal boundary draped
from the Great Lakes region southward through far SSErn KS
toward the TX panhandle. This is keeping winds across the
forecast area generally easterly and light, with speeds mainly
under 10 MPH.

Today and tonight...

Not looking at significant changes through the immediate short
term period. Models remain in good agreement showing little
change with the southwesterly flow aloft over the region...the
area of high pressure currently over the SErn CONUS shifts back
west a touch, while the West Coast low continues to sink south.
During the daytime hours today...hi-res models are in decent
agreement showing precipitation chances being fairly spotty in
nature. Upper level forcing looks to remain on the subtle
side...and while it`s hard to have a ton of confidence in any
place remaining completely dry all day long...it`s possible a
decent chunk of the forecast area may end up that way. Expecting
to continue to see plenty of cloud cover around, though more
breaks in the clouds may start working their way in from the
south and west as the day passes. At the surface, winds are
expected to gradually turn more southerly with time, as sfc high
pressure slides further east away from the region, while
overall weak low pressure remains over the High Plains...keeping
winds speeds on the lighter side, topping out around 10-15 MPH.
Expecting a bit of a bump up in temps...after 60s-low 70s on
Tuesday, highs for today are in the low-mid 70s.

For precipitation chances this evening and tonight...models have
trended toward the better focus being across the SSErn half of
the forecast area. These chances are driven by again overall
subtle mid-upper level forcing, and moreso by increased
convergence along the nose of a SWrly low-level jet (around
30kts or so). Overall coverage looks to again be on the spotty
side, gradually sliding east with time. Again can`t rule out
some stronger storms, but the overall severe threat remains on
the lower side. Another concern for later tomorrow night will be
with the potential for fog...with models showing the potential
for fairly widespread lowered visibilities, mainly across Neb.
Will see how models trend today, but some models show the
potential for this fog to be dense.

Thursday and on...

Overall, models haven`t changed a whole lot big picture-wise
through the end of this week into the start of next
week...keeping the pattern on the unsettled side. Upper level
flow across the region remains generally southwesterly...showing
high pressure shifting west further into the Srn Plains, while
that West Coast low/troughing starts working its way further
east. Periodic shortwave disturbance ejected out ahead of the
main troughing will keep at least spotty precipitation chances
in the forecast through the end of the week (mainly focused in
the late ...with models showing the main system itself pushing
east through the Plains roughly in the Sat night-Sunday time
frame. Plenty of finer details to work out in the coming
days...so confidence isn`t overly high the further out you go in
time.

As far as temperatures go...expecting warmer temperatures to end
the work week, with Thursday in the upper 70s-near 90, and
Friday having more mid 80s-low 90s. With the main upper
troughing moving through during the weekend...cooler temps
expected, with generally low-mid 70s by Sun-Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

An upper trough is centered over the Pacific Northwest with an upper
ridge centered over the southeast part of the country. South central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in between these 2
features. A surface high is across the area behind the cold front
that moved through last night/early this morning. There is enhanced
atmospheric lift along and just behind the cold front which has
resulted in the development of some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the area. Severe storms are not expected with higher
stability behind the front. Additional development of showers and
storms is expected through the rest of the afternoon and again
tonight. High temperatures today will generally range from the mid
60s to mid 70s. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 50s
with some lower 60s.

The upper ridge expands further west over the southern Plains and
portions of the central Plains on Wednesday. This will result in
some portions of north central Kansas warming up into the low 80s.
Otherwise, high temperatures will mainly be in the 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible (up to around 50% chance) on
Wednesday as upper lift increases over the area from shortwave
troughs moving overhead. Low temperatures Wednesday night will
mainly be in the 60s with light, easterly winds. Chances of showers
and storms continue through Wednesday night with chances up to
around 70%. Temperatures are expected to warm up some on Thursday
but the amount of warming is uncertain due to model differences in
positioning of the upper ridge and surface boundaries. Temperatures
will warm even further on Friday with a surface trough strengthening
across much of the area. Various rain and storm chances continue
Thursday and Friday as upper disturbances move over/near the area.

Temperatures will cool beginning on Saturday with another cold front
moving into the area. Also, an upper trough from the west will move
towards and over the northern and central Plains through early next
week displacing the upper ridge that was over/near the region. There
is some uncertainty in temperatures during the weekend and early
next week but most areas are expected to be in the 70s. Various rain
and storm chances continue Saturday and Sunday with an increase in
atmospheric lift due to the cold front and approaching upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Ceilings are slowly falling over central Nebraska and this will
continue through sunrise. IFR ceilings are likely through
Wednesday morning and into the afternoon before gradually
improving.

A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out the potential for
lightning in the EAR/GRI has decreased enough that the PROB30
TSRA has been removed.

Winds remain light through the period, turning from the
northeast to southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Mangels