891
FXUS65 KGJT 020551
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1051 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rivers across SW Colorado are forecast to crest
  overnight Sunday into Monday.

- The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs is forecast to reach
  major flood stage which has prompted the continuation of the
  Particularly Dangerous Situation Flood Warning for that area.

- A cold frontal passage will occur overnight Sunday into
  Monday, driving mountain snowfall at and above pass level.
  Morning commutes could be slick and slushy.

- Widespread precipitation chances diminish Monday morning,
  with drier conditions expected Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 927 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY:

A cold front pushing across eastern Utah and western Colorado
tonight will usher in a cooler air mass, holding temperatures below
the seasonal averages to kick off the workweek.

Widespread precipitation will continue across the region overnight
before tapering off from southwest to northeast Monday afternoon and
evening. An additional 0.5-1" of rainfall remains possible across
the higher terrain of the San Juans and adjacent valley basin
through early Monday. With snow levels dropping behind the front,
snow across the high passes will lead to slick and slushy travel
during the Monday morning commute. In the northern Divide mountains,
ensemble and deterministic guidance consistently depict 4 to 8
inches of accumulation above 9000 ft. through Monday evening;
consequently, the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded
northward to account for these localized travel impacts.

Hydrologic impacts will peak during the overnight hours into Monday
morning as area rivers approach crest levels. While precipitation
chances diminish late Monday, rivers will remain near or above
bankfull well after the rain ceases. Please refer to the hydrology
section below for specific river stage and crest forecast
information.

THE REST OF THE WEEK:

Drier conditions return Tuesday and temperatures will also continue
to hover below normal for the better half of the work week. A quick
moving clipper system has the potential to bring some light showers
to the region mid to late next week, although models don`t have the
best grasp on this as of yet, so details remain vague.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1017 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Rain and showers continue overnight though breaks in precip are
expected. MVFR/IFR conditions will be the rule due to low
ceilings and vis under the heavier showers. Many TEMPO and
PROB30 groups continue for TAF sites to account for this. ILS
breakpoints will also continue to be met for most TAF sites
through tonight and into much of tomorrow. Rain has already
started changing to snow at higher elevations so KTEX may see
some flakes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 927 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Deep atmospheric moisture associated with the ongoing atmospheric
river will begin to taper from southwest to northeast Monday
morning. However, substantial hydrologic concerns will persist well
after precipitation rates diminish.

Widespread, excessive runoff over already saturated terrain will
drive rapid rises across drainage networks, with several rivers
throughout southwest Colorado forecast to crest overnight Sunday
into Monday. The primary point of concern remains the San Juan River
at Pagosa Springs, where guidance continues to indicate a
potentially historic crest. Given the high confidence in widespread
inundation and severe impacts, this remains a Particularly Dangerous
Situation (PDS).

Multiple other basins across the region will likely experience
moderate to major flood stages as runoff routes through the system.
Because peak crests are projected to occur during the overnight
hours, exercise extreme caution as water across roadways is
difficult, if not impossible, to detect at night. The Flood
Watch remains in effect through Monday morning to account for
both flood risks and ongoing river flooding.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Monday to midnight MST
     Monday night for COZ004.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST Monday for COZ009-010-
     012-013.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Monday for COZ018-019.
     Flood Watch through Monday morning for COZ019-021>023.
UT...Flood Watch through Monday morning for UTZ022-028-029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BS
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...BS