307
FXUS65 KGJT 250408
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1008 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon and evening convection expected throughout the next
  week, with an uptick in activity expected beyond Sunday.

- The main concerns from any storms remain heavy rainfall,
  lightning, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- Storms continue to have the ability to produce flash flooding
  and debris flows in vulnerable terrain especially for areas
  near and downstream of burn scars.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

CAM`s are relatively similar for Saturday to what they depicted
Friday, albeit with rain shoved a little closer to the Divide
and less within the valleys. Regardless, we are expecting
another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for much of the region, particularly in the southern half of the
CWA. This is in spite of us being at the anticipated low point
for PWAT`s (which, in the grand scheme of things, is still above
normal for this time of year). Many thunderstorms will be
capable of localized heavy rain, small hail, and gusty outflow
winds. Without much shear though, storms are generally expected
to be short-lived. By Sunday, the moisture plume will have
drifted back overhead, and as the ridge stagnates, so will that
pool of moisture, setting up a long stretch of repetitive active
weather. Flow around the ridge is weak, and as such, storms are
expected to be slow moving. With this, vulnerable areas
(including burn scars) will be prone to flash flooding and
debris flows throughout the next week. Also stagnating will be
our daily high temperatures, sitting roughly 5 degrees above
normal and leaving many valley locations near or within the
triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually diminishing for
the evening. Winds are expected to transition to light and
terrain driven for the overnight period. High clouds will linger
into the overnight hours before mid level clouds develop again
by Saturday afternoon. Shower and storm chances return around
18Z Saturday for the high country terminals with a slight
chance for those showers to move down to nearby valleys. Primary
threats continue to be gusty (25-35 mph) outflows, lightning,
and brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rainfall will develop during afternoons through the next week.
Storm development will favor the high terrain, though a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in valleys
as well. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches will be possible with
stronger storms. These rates could lead to flash flooding and
debris flows, especially over steep terrain and recent burn
scars. Also, rain over the past several days has lead to
saturated soils, which increase the chances for excessive
runoff.

As a reminder: Keep an eye on our forecasts and stay tuned for
updated hydrology alerts if visiting or if you reside near
terrain vulnerable to flash flooding and/or debris flows. Dry
creeks and arroyos can fill quickly and without warning from
storms miles away.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
HYDROLOGY...TGJT