904
FXUS65 KGJT 011141
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
441 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories are expected to trail off this
  morning, but mountain roadways could still be challenging for
  the commute.

- Skies clear and high temperatures today trend down 5-10
  degrees.

- Another winter storm comes into view Tuesday afternoon into
  Thursday, with more snowfall for mountains.

- Cool, unsettled conditions stick around into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Canceled Winter Weather Advisories for UTZ028 and COZ017, as dry
and subsident flow has squashed any remaining snowfall this
morning. Orographic showers continue on the terrain of western
Colorado, with many mountain roads still snow covered on CDOT
cameras. Morning commuters will want to exercise caution on
mountain roadways and a few lower roadways that received
snowfall overnight in the wake of the front, then refroze under
clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Clear and cold conditions are sweeping in behind the cold front this
morning. Orographic snow showers continue on many of our mountains
this morning, but accumulations are negligible at this point. Some
area roadways remain snow covered in the cold air settling across
the region. Morning commuters should check local conditions before
setting out for work. Winter Weather Advisories will likely drop off
much sooner than the noon timeline given initially, as the drier and
subsident air mass pushes into the region. Sunny skies should return
across the region by lunch, with some stray cloud cover hanging on
the mountains into afternoon. Winds will remain north and west
today, with temperatures 5-10 degrees colder in one of the coldest
air masses of the season. As skies clear out tonight, this should
deliver frigid overnight lows to our mountain basins surrounded by
fresh snowpack.

Quiet weather will be short-lived, as we queue up another cold front
for Tuesday and beyond. This one looks very similar to yesterday`s
system. An arcing ridge in the Pacific, offshore of the CONUS, is
sending a battery of digging jet maxes down the PACNW into the Great
Basin. This comes along with the deep cold pool oozing out of
Continental Canada. This bodes well for snow production from any
moisture we can tap. While early indications for Tuesday and beyond
are not as bullish on moisture as this last system, there will still
be measurable snow for the mountains. Light snow across northeast
Utah and northwest Colorado initiates Tuesday morning, then spreads
south by afternoon. At the moment, this looks good for a couple
inches of new snow on the mountains by sunset Tuesday evening.(and
more later) Afternoon highs will trend down a couple degrees again
on Tuesday beneath gray skies and additional precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

And the wave train doesn`t end as we look upstream Tuesday. An
upper level trough will be located over western Montana and
eastern Idaho early Tuesday. Ahead of this feature will be a
shortwave that will just clip our CWA bringing some light snow
to the eastern Uintas, and northern valleys and mountains. Don`t
look for much accumulation though, that won`t start until the
main upper level trough and the next weak, cold front pushes
through. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with this system
even this far out but that`s not to say we couldn`t see some
changes over the next few days. That being said, the forecast is
calling for 2 to 5 inches over the northern mountains, Flat
Tops and portions of the central mountains with lesser amounts
south. Previous, similar systems have come in with amounts like
these and then as we get closer to the event, amounts bump up so
there`s always that chance. Either way, much of the CWA will
see some form of precip Tuesday morning through Thursday.

And wouldn`t you know, the wave train continues Friday into the
weekend as pieces of energy move through northwesterly flow.
You folks up in Steamboat Springs, you know what this means.
Favorable orographics, not to mention stronger waves moving
through, over a prolonged period may bring some decent snowfall
amounts to the Elkheads and Park Ranges. We are still a ways
out, however, so take this with a grain of salt. Still,
something to look forward to. As far as high temperatures are
concerned, they will be on the cool side with highs generally
below more normal early December values across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Breakpoint conditions at mountain terminals are expected to
erode as the sun comes up this morning. Snow showers are
expected to wind down across the region and VFR conditions
return by afternoon for terminals. Winds remain light and
northerly to westerly behind the cold front today. Some high
cloud cover begins to invade late in this TAF period, but
breakpoint ceilings are not expected.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST today for COZ004-009-
     010-012-013-018-019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT