954
FXUS65 KGJT 281740
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1140 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue today with
  additional rain overnight into early Friday morning.

- The potential for flash flooding continues today, especially
  for burn scars and flood prone locales with saturated soils
  from recent rains.

- Temperatures warm a couple degrees today, but return cooler
  Friday.

- A final push of moisture will produce showers and
  thunderstorms Friday, then drier conditions return Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A weak boundary associated with the jet streak working northeast
across the Four Corners this morning has produced isolated showers
and thunderstorms through the overnight hours. A spot check of area
rain gauges shows nearly a tenth of an inch for these showers. Skies
are mostly clear south of the 50 highway corridor. Stratiform cloud
cover lingers in the moisture pool across northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. This is expected to burn off this morning and
introduce another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Storm activity will favor the northern half of the CWA with chances
tapering across the southern mountains. Localized flash flooding
will remain a concern as PWAT`s remain 120 to 140 percent of normal
around the region. Additional sunshine today will bring temperatures
up a couple degrees, but highs remain around 5 degrees below
climatology today. Showers will taper off this evening around dark,
with some stratiform rain hanging on into the overnight hours.

Early Friday morning, another push of moisture works in across the
Four Corners along the resident jet streak and a frontal boundary.
This will produce some overnight rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
Additional showers and storms are expected Friday afternoon, but
morning cloud cover could limit afternoon convection. Temperatures
respond downward Friday thanks to expected cloud cover and the weak
frontal passage pushing some cooler and drier air into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The building of high pressure centered to our south will be the
catalyst of a shift back to drier weather, at least over the
weekend. As this high pressure builds, flow will gradually shift
from moist and southwesterly to drier and west to northwesterly.
On Friday one last push of moisture will come through before
anomalously dry air returns over the weekend. This push of moisture
is expected to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
region Friday afternoon, especially as the remnants of a closed low
off of California`s coast pass through our region as a weak wave on
Friday morning and afternoon. On Saturday lingering moisture may be
sufficient for terrain based convection. However, by Sunday dry air
looks to limit PoPs in all but the southern mountains. Monday and
Tuesday look less clear in terms of afternoon convection due to
ensemble differences on moisture advection. With the building high
pressure and decrease in moisture, high temperatures will begin to
climb back towards near normal this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Showers and storms may impact the northern taf sites this
afternoon. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain resulting in
IFR/MVFR will be the main impacts. Most of the activity will
dissipate around sunset. An expansive area of showers will move
across the area late morning. It could lower cig/vis towards the
end of the period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT