684
FXUS65 KGJT 132321
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
521 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy
  conditions to the area for the weekend.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions arrive for the
  weekend.

- Temperatures remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal through the
  seven-day forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast this weekend with
an upper-level ridge overhead. High temperature 10 to 15
degrees above normal are expected with the desert valleys
flirting with 100 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. Some afternoon
breezes of 20 to 25 mph will be common, especially north of
Interstate 70. The breezy winds will combine with low relative
humidities and warm temperatures causing localized critical fire
weather conditions.

On Monday, an upper-level jet moves in resulting in afternoon
wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph. Critical fire weather concerns
will become more widespread. Red Flag Warnings are looking more
and more likely with both fuels and fire weather conditions
meeting the critical thresholds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Models are in fairly good agreement on the passage of a
shortwave trough Tuesday morning and afternoon, helping cool
temperatures down by about 5 degrees for most areas with 8
degrees cooler for the north. Despite the cool down this trough
passage will offer, dry air continues as this system is fairly
moisture starved. Precipitation potential remains north of our
CWA across Wyoming and the northern High Plains, with passing
cloud cover and a scant chance of some isolated virga showers,
but that`s about it. A broad and expansive ridge of high
pressure then builds in behind this system for Wednesday and
beyond, with southwest flow increasing once again late next
week...still remaining dry and temperatures returning to hot
with triple digit heat possible in the lower valleys of eastern
Utah and west-central Colorado. The hot, dry and breezy
conditions will also elevate critical fire weather concerns late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Over 20 mph wind gusts are ongoing this afternoon and should
continue at most terminals for the next couple hours. Winds will
calm overnight before gusts pick up again tomorrow afternoon
region-wide. VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT