864
FXUS65 KGJT 262038
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
238 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the
  northern mountains this afternoon with mostly dry and warmer
  conditions area wide.

- Drier and warmer conditions expected this week with
  temperatures warming to five to ten degrees above normal by
  mid week.

- Precipitation chances remain low through most of the week with
  any storm activity favoring the high terrain during the
  afternoon period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

While much of the moisture from the previous storm system
yesterday has vacated the area, enough lingering moisture left
behind in a westerly flow is resulting in plenty of cumulus
clouds forming over the northern and central high terrain.
Visually speaking, these cumulus do not have much vertical
growth to them, hence very little if any shower activity
remains and is seen on radar. The hi-res CAMs are indicating
some isolated storms this afternoon favoring the northwest
Colorado mountains. The HRRR seems to have a better handle on it
than the overly aggressive NAMNest, so not really expecting too
much storm activity other than perhaps some very isolated
storms over the Park Range and Flattops late this afternoon,
with quick dissipation by sunset. A little bit of 0-3km MLCAPE
and some bulk shear remains over the Park Range according to
mesoscale analysis, but instability is fairly low otherwise.
For the most part though, drier and warmer conditions can be
expected today with breezy conditions, although much less than
yesterday given less storm activity.

High pressure continues to move in from the southwest with its
axis stretching over the Great Basin, although the flow will
shift to more southwesterly allowing some moisture to advect
back into the area. Regardless, Monday is expected to be mostly
dry with some isolated storm activity possible over the San
Juans during the afternoon. The warm advection continues with
highs on Memorial Day near to slightly above normal, which will
be about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

By Tuesday morning, the ridge axis will be centered over eastern
Utah and Western Colorado extending north over Montana into
Saskatchewan on its eastward trek across the region as a deep
low pressure system descends out of the Gulf of Alaska along the
British Columbia Coast. By Wednesday morning, the low will have
turned east to track across northern BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan
and Manitoba to the Hudson Bay by next Sunday. The trough
associated with this low will extend down into the Pacific
Northwest Tuesday shifting the flow aloft to the southwest
across the region to advect warm air into the area, warming
temperatures five to ten degrees above normal. These warm
temperatures will continue through Thursday as the trough tracks
along the Canadian Borders putting the region under a dry, more
zonal flow. Look for skies to remain mostly clear across the
region with afternoon build ups over the mountains from residual
moisture and diurnal heating. Could even see a few isolated
showers along the Divide each afternoon through the week. Cooler
air will push south into the northern 2/3rds of region late
Thursday into Friday and Saturday as the trough to the north
moves east of the Rockies, dropping temperatures back to near
normal for the end of May and first of June. The southern areas
along and south of the San Juan mountains will stay about five
degrees above normal through this period.

Looking way out into the extended period, next Sunday into the
following week, the ensemble models zero in with good agreement
on a strong ridge building in over the Intermountain West and
troughing over the Eastern States as the low settles in the
Hudson Bay. This is a common strongly persistent pattern over
the CONUS that can last for weeks at a time, characterized by
hot and dry conditions for eastern Utah and Western Colorado
that can usher in the start of the fire season. This far out,
there isn`t a lot of confidence in this forecast, but the fact
that the ensembles concur with low dispersion among the members
makes this something to watch. Stay tuned through the coming
week for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Expect mostly VFR conditions across the region today with breezy
to gusty west winds through the afternoon. The exception is residual
moisture generating periods with cloud decks just below ILS
breakpoints for KASE and KEGE this afternoon. Look for skies to
clear out overnight across the region with light terrain driven
winds through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DB