271
FXUS65 KGJT 281753
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another day of mild temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal
  Friday afternoon.

- A cold front will bring measurable snow to the mountains with
  2-10 inches of new snow tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is
  in place for the Elkheads, Park and Gore Range including
  Rabbit Ears and Vail Pass this evening through Saturday
  morning.

- Colder, unsettled conditions continue this weekend, with
  another round of measurable snow Sunday night into Monday
  expected to impact travel on our mountain passes.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Due to the post-Thanksgiving holiday travel impact as well as
snowfall amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches over Vail Pass,
decided to add COZ010 (Gore and Elk mountains) to the Winter
Weather Advisory this evening for elevations above 10,000 feet.
This is really focused more over Vail Pass as travel impacts are
likely with the snow and blowing snow element. Forcing and
orographics are also favorable for enhanced snowfall
accumulations over the Gore Mountains as well as Park Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

A jet streak dropping out of the northwest is dragging a frontal
boundary across the Great Basin this morning. Pockets of moisture
dot the West this morning on satellite water vapor. Most of this
moisture resides in the gut of a broad trough of low pressure being
dug out by that northwesterly jet streak pushing south out of
British Columbia. This feature will figure prominently in our
pattern shift this evening across northwest Colorado.

Today, neutral advection will keep things on the warm side of
climatology another day. Some denser cloud cover will dip into the
50 highway corridor, but much of southeast Utah and southwest
Colorado will see sunny skies today with temperatures 5-10 degrees
above climatology. That jet streak moves into the region this
afternoon and surface winds will respond with an uptick across the
region. Breezy conditions are expected along the Continental Divide
this afternoon, where winds will gust 25 to 30 mph. Elsewhere, gusts
will hover around 10 to 20 mph. This is all a precursor to that
frontal boundary nosing into our northern mountains this evening,
dropping temperatures and kicking off a brief bout of wintry
weather. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Elkheads and
Park Range, where 4-10 inches of snow and gusty winds will make
travel on the highway 40 corridor challenging tonight and into
Saturday morning. Measurable snow will also impact the Flat Tops and
the Central Mountains with 2-6 inches of new accumulation tonight.
While the west side of Vail Pass remains outside of advisory
criteria, travelers are urged to be mindful of wind blown snow and
poor visibility up there tonight.

This system exits quickly Saturday morning and cooler, drier
conditions develop for Saturday. Afternoon highs will range 8 to 15
degrees cooler from roughly the I-70 corridor northward. With the
front washing out well before the Four Corners, temperatures down
that way only trend a few degrees cooler. Some residual cloud cover
beneath the northwest flow behind the front won`t help with the
chill in the air Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

Saturday night finds us in a lull between systems, as Friday`s
clipper moves into the eastern Plains, and the next system drops
into the Pacific Northwest. Models have come into pretty good
agreement regarding the strength and timing of this next system,
which is set to track across eastern Utah and western Colorado
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. This system is not
especially moist, with forecast PWATs only around 150% of normal,
but it`s definitely a colder system. This favors lower amounts
of very light, fluffy snow across the higher elevations, and
maybe even a few flurries for the valley floors by Monday
morning. The higher elevations look to see 3-6 inches, with
locally higher amounts possible. The central mountains have been
consistently favored, but the highest amounts still seem to
shift from run to run. All that is to say, those travelling
through the mountains during this period should be prepared to
encounter snow and wintry driving conditions, and should keep
abreast of any highlights and forecast changes in the coming
days.

Cold and unsettled northerly to northwesterly flow sets up for
Tuesday onward, with the potential for another system dropping into
the Intermountain West midweek. Models have been consistently
showing this system for the last several runs, but are inconsistent
with each other and from run to run over how it develops. So
confidence remains low in any details more specific than "cooler air
and broad troughing sets up for late next week." Speaking of those
cooler temperatures, highs drop to around 5 degrees below normal by
Monday and remain there through the remainder of the week. For lower
desert valleys, this means highs in the low 40s, and for mountain
towns this means highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Finally,
temperatures will feel representative of the date on the calendar.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1049 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

High level clouds are streaming across the area with some mid
level clouds as well. These clouds will thicken and gradually
lower through the day as a system approaches the area. Most
locations will remain above ILS breakpoints, but KASE, KHDN,
KRIL, and KEGE will flirt with breakpoints at times after 00z
this evening. Snow showers will be possible for KHDN, KEGE, and
KASE between 00z and 12z tonight, with occasional reductions to
visibility dropping conditions into MVFR/IFR range. Remaining
terminals will see VFR prevail. Breezy westerly winds with gusts
of 15 to 25 knots are expected overnight, along with some LLWS
concerns for sheltered valley terminals. Conditions improve
after 12Z with showers coming to an end but some low CIGS could
linger along the Divide until late Saturday morning.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM MST
     Saturday for COZ004-010.
UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BGB
AVIATION...TGJT