971
FXUS65 KGJT 232346
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
446 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow is expected to continue this evening over the central and
  southern mountains before tapering off overnight. A Winter
  Weather Advisory remains in effect for the San Juans through
  midnight tonight.

- Cooler and drier conditions move in for much of the week
  ahead.

- A stronger weather system could impact holiday travel across
  the Intermountain West next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers continue across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado
this evening before tapering off around midnight. The northern
slopes of the San Juans have the highest potential for an
additional 4-6" of snowfall. Much of the remaining snowfall is
expected in the mountains above 9,000 feet, but we are starting
to see some convective cells developing along the Colorado/New
Mexico border. These cells may be capable of bringing snow to
the valleys if the lapse rates are steep enough. A lightning
strike or two cannot be ruled out as well. All in all, the
forecast remains on track and the Winter Weather Advisory for
the San Juans above 9,000 feet remains in effect through
midnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A cold front sweeps through area on Monday leaving west-
northwest flow in place on Tuesday. Limited moisture along with
steep lapse rate will result in snow showers for the northern
mountains especially in the morning hours. A few inches are
possible in the highest elevations. High temperatures drop 5-10
degrees along and north of I-70 compared to Monday due to the
front. Northwest flow remains in place through the end of the
week. There is a plume of moisture that advects in from the
Pacific Northwest, which could support isolated snow showers in
the northern mountains at times. Otherwise most locations stay
dry through the week.

A potentially strong storm may be in the works for next
weekend, but the models vary widely on strength and timing so
confidence is low. The ensembles are are in fair agreement of
troughing across the western CONUS, which supports active
weather. Stay tuned for more details since this could impact
holiday travel next weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Mountain snow and valley rain showers are ongoing south of
I-70. IFR conditions are occurring at KTEX and KGUC as
precipitation continues to bring lowered ceilings and
visibility. Impacts are also possible at KASE, KMTJ, and KDRO
this evening. By 06Z most precipitation will end. However, low
status and or fog is possible overnight at KDRO, and potentially
other sites that have received snow or rain.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ018-
     019.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT