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000
FXUS65 KGJT 242151
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
351 PM MDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Cool and dry conditions expected in the short term in the wake of
the passing trough and associated cold front. Looks like some of
the Upper Colorado and Eagle Valleys could see some of the coolest
weather this fall with temperatures approaching the freezing mark.
Farther downvalley...winds and elevation will keep things warmer
but it will feel as though the seasons are finally starting to
change. Highs on Tuesday will really be settling around the
seasonal normals before a warmup begins for the remainder of the
week. The cooler temperatures and less wind will also eliminate
the critical fire weather conditions for at least a few days.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Sep 24 2018

An anomalous Rex Block will be setting up over the Eastern Pacific
with the ridge portion amplifying heights some 3 to 4 std dev over
Alaska. Concurrent...strong downstream ridging off the eastern
seaboard can only mean one thing which is deep cold troughing over
the the interior of NOAM. Luckily the cold will not impact us on
this side of the Rockies but we will be stuck in a dry pattern.
No precipitation is in site until the Rex Low gets ejected
inland over the weekend if the current ensembles are correct.
Since I am a dry-biased forecaster...the GFS absorbing an EPac
tropical storm into the Great Basin giving us significant
rainfall early next week seems unbelievable. However the GFS does
have support of the GEM and my bias is often wrong so there is
hope...but a long way out. For now expect warming temperatures
through the remainder of the week and pleasant fall weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Sep 24 2018

A cold front will continue moving through central and southern UT
and CO through this evening then get hung up over the San Juan
Mountains and dissipate overnight. Associated with this front are
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Conditions should
remain VFR at all TAF sites, but KRIL, KEGE, KASE, KGUC, and KTEX
will have VCSH or VCTS intermittently through about 03z. Outflow
winds are possible near any thunderstorms with gusts of about 35
kt possible. Surface and boundary level winds will remain fairly
strong from the southwest through northwest producing areas of
mechanical turbulence.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC