Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281718
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1118 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

The closed low is currently over southern New Mexico and is expected
to track east-northeastward today. The only lasting impacts from
this low is stratus across portions of the upper San Juan river
valley. This stratus will keep temperatures warmer than
surrounding locations and should scatter out later this morning.
Another area of stratus is building into central Colorado, but it
is more localized. Warm air advection will continue and result in
highs being 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. The higher October
sun angle is working efficiently to melt the recent snow, but
this is adding moisture into the boundary layer. Some guidance is
showing low-level clouds and or fog developing in some of the
valleys tonight as the inversions strengthen. Confidence in this
happening is not high, but this is currently taking place over
central Colorado so it can not be ruled out. The winds do weaken
aloft as the low departs the region so that may play a role in the
inversions. Tomorrow a ridge tries to build into the region, but
it quickly gets suppressed by a deep trough over the Pacific
Northwest. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs getting
closer to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

By Friday and Saturday the trough over the Pacific Northwest will
track eastward and send a cold front that clips the area. As a
result the warming trend will slow down, but not before we reach
seasonable normals. The associated jet will also clip the area as
well causing an increase in the winds both Friday and Saturday.
Unfortunately, there will be no available moisture to support
precipitation with this system. In that wake of that trough an
amplified ridge builds over the western CONUS. The next trough to
suppress the ridge looks to arrive in the Pacific Northwest by
midweek and take a similar track to the previous if not a touch
further south. Again though, precipitation chances appear to be
rather limited.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Some of the guidance is showing the possibility for greater
coverage of low stratus and or fog tonight. Confidence was not
high enough at this point to add it to any of the tafs. Otherwise
light terrain-driven winds and some passing high clouds expected
today.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT



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