Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 212347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 PM MDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Temperatures are climbing a few degrees more today compared to
yesterday with less cloud cover over the region. Lingering
moisture and daytime heating are triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across the area, favoring the
western Colorado mountains, but these storms will diminish by
midnight with the loss of the daytime heating. The HRRR and NAM
are showing increased shower activity over the Eastern Uintas
beginning tomorrow morning as a short wave begins to cross through
the region. Again, the higher terrain across western Colorado
will see increased shower activity tomorrow afternoon, although
the showers will be more widespread due to the instability
introduced with the disturbance passing to the north. Expect a
brief break during the overnight hours on Sunday night with
slightly cooler lows as heavier cloud cover dissipates.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM MDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Things begin to become a little more interesting as we head into
the new work week. As has been the trend over the last several
model runs the area of high pressure is expected to retrograde
back into the Four Corners area by late Monday. As this occurs
another embedded shortwave will drag across the Continental
Divide on Monday, resulting in an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm coverage throughout the day. WPC has issued a slight
risk for excessive rainfall along this area as precipitable water
values once again climb with the passage of the disturbance. If
models continue to trend this way Flash Flood Watches may have to
be considered for the major burn scars in our forecast area.

By daybreak Tuesday the center of the high will be positioned over
the northern Arizona/New Mexico border. Drier air will work into
the region from the northwest by midweek as the high reaches
SoCal. However, moisture will continue to be recycled under the
high through the end of the week as daytime heating helps fuel at
least isolated orographic convection each day. Temperatures will
gradually warm through the long term period as the high builds
back over the southwestern CONUS.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat Jul 21 2018

Expect thunderstorms in the vicinity of KTEX through 02Z with a
brief light showers possible along with outflow winds to 25 MPH.
Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
across the region this evening, however, with the exception of
KTEX, the remaining TAF sites are unlikely to experience this
activity directly this evening through midday Sunday.

Thunderstorms will bubble up again Sunday afternoon, mainly over
higher terrain. Outflow winds could affect TAF sites, however
shower/thunderstorm activity are unlikely to impact airfields.
Despite moist convective activity, TAF sites can anticipate VFR
conditions through the next 24 hours.






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