Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 232336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
536 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A high-amplitude mid-level ridge axis remains over western
Colorado. Convection is ongoing this afternoon with showers and
storms initiating off the higher terrain and slowly rotating
around the high pressure center. A weak and fairly short-lived
monsoonal surge will maintain increasing moisture through the
short-term promoting more widespread wetting rain over the next
couple afternoons/evenings. A few storms could produce some small
hail in addition to gusty winds. Precipitable Water values just
under 1 inch (particularly in southern portions of the forecast
area) will also promote heavy rainfall. Taking into account the
slow movement of these storms, localized flooding concerns will
increase with any locations that experience continued thunderstorm

A low pressure system currently off the Pacific
Northwest Coast is forecast to move east just north of the
Canadian/CONUS border. This will force our high pressure southward
beginning Wednesday afternoon and allow for moisture to wrap
around the northern side of the high pressure. This increased
cloud cover and convection will keep temperatures a little cooler
than the past several days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

The aformentioned southwest movement of the high pressure center
will allow for an increased deeper fetch of moisture to move over
the area Thursday with continued convection through Saturday. On
Sunday, this moisture moves southeast as our high pressure wanders
back into the four corners keeping us under northwest flow. This
will clear out much of the clouds and precipitation (at least for
a few days) except for a couple high elevation-based
storms...mainly over southern portions of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Like yesterday, convection still hanging on across the forecast
area though only KTEX and KDRO are seeing the effects of some
thunderstorms. These should move off to the south very shortly and
don`t expect much of a problem for the overnight hours. A few
showers are possible but TAF sites should be okay. Moisture starts
streaming up from the south for tomorrow which will bring another
round of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening.
Convection will be more widespread and will likely affect TAF
sites from 21Z onwards. Main concerns will be heavy rain and some
gusty winds.




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