Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 260515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1115 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

A strengthening area of low pressure will be driving into the
western Great Basin over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will
bring very dry and gusty southwest winds to eastern Utah and
western Colorado late tonight through late Saturday evening. The
strongest winds are expected to be found from southeast Utah up
into west-central Colorado as nose of 80-110 kt jet reaches into
this region. Deep mixing of the atmosphere will drive the stronger
winds aloft down to the surface with gust potential up to 40 mph
expected. Winds let up a bit as you work east across western
Colorado with peak gusts coming in under 30 mph but still a breezy
to windy start to the Memorial Day Weekend.

The main upper level low will shift east over Utah Saturday night
and Sunday, with winds easing a bit. Still no signs of
precipitation through this short-term period.

Clear and dry atmosphere will allow another excellent cool-down
tonight with temps quickly jumping on Saturday. Expect a few new
records or near record highs with readings running in the 80s and
90s across the valleys with 70s up in the hills. Increase in high
clouds is expected through the afternoon and into the overnight
hours Saturday night. This will make for rather mild overnight
lows as we head into Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

The main upper level low will be slowly filling and pushing
eastward across northern Utah on Sunday. Still seeing very dry
conditions rotating around the base of the trough up across the
Four Corners and into our eastern tier zones on Sunday. Locally
breezy conditions will continue with little change in temps south
of a line from Blanding northeast to Gunnison. Slight cooling
anticipated north of that line with increase in cloud cover.
Gradients continue to weaken Sunday night into Monday with
moisture profile slowly improving from northwest to southeast.
This will result in isolated convection on Monday with activity
increasing Monday night and Tuesday as we see a cold front and
upper level trough swing through from the northwest. Moisture
lingers on the backside of this exiting system to keep low pops in
the forecast through Wednesday. Then we take another turn back
towards the hot, dry and windy weather to close out the week as
another low pushes into the intermountain west.

Temperatures will be running 5 to 10 degrees above normal Sunday
with readings dropping back early in the week, only to return to
the much above normal readings by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

An area of low pressure will approach the area from the west on
Saturday and while only some high clouds are expected, winds will
increase ahead of the low. Wind gusts of 25 mph will be common
with a few gusts possibly reaching higher values. Winds will pick
up around 18Z and continue through 03Z, give or take an hour or
two. VFR conditions will remain in place.


Issued at 325 PM MDT Fri May 25 2018

Big concern over the next 36 hours will be in the fire weather
department as dry southwest winds will be on the increase. With
vegetation reported as receptive to ignition in several areas,
increasing southwest winds and afternoon humidity values down
below 10 percent, conditions will be ripe for rapid wildfire
growth. Our Red Flag Warnings have been expanded to included all
of east-central and southeast Utah and most of western Colorado
from late Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Winds are
expected to ease late Saturday night and through the day one
Sunday, although our eastern-tier fire zones in western Colorado
may see conditions approaching critical levels once again.
However, confidence is not high at this time with that scenario
and will not be issuing any additional highlights on top of the
current Red Flag Warnings that will remain in effect.


CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ200-202-

UT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for UTZ490-491.



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