603
FXUS65 KGJT 052323
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
523 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon showers and storms possible along the
  Divide today.

- Precipitation chances increase through the holiday weekend,
  with peak coverage expected late Sunday into Monday. Storms
  may be capable of producing flash flooding.

- Look for mild temperatures near normal to five degrees above
  normal this weekend, warming to five to ten degrees above
  normal by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Satellite imagery showed a more zonal component of the mid to upper
level winds drawing the moist plume in a more northeasterly
direction into eastern Utah and Western Colorado. The 12Z model runs
have picked up on this shift moving the Pacific Northwest low
farther inland to knock the top off the ridge to the east over the
Plains. Look for this shift to direct the moist plume into the Four
Corners area and north into the Uncompahgre with pwats around an
inch. Like wise, the jet has a stronger zonal component bringing
some upper level support to the region late Sunday into Monday. Most
guidance hasn`t adjusted to this shift, but the HRRR and SREF
seems to track on this. Blended in 10-20% of these to get at
least isolated showers and thunderstorms into the forecast
Sunday afternoon over the higher terrain across the southern
and central areas. Convection in this plume of moisture is
capably of producing stronger thunderstorms with periods of
heavy rain that can lead to flash flooding, especially near
recent fire scars and in areas prone to flooding. Due to the
poor run-to-run consistency of the models, confidence in the
forecast is too low at this point to issue any Watch products
at this time. Stay tuned over the next 12 hours for updates as
the models come more into line, and stay aware to the weather
around you if you`re going out.

Beyond Monday, models are in agreement on the high pressure over
the Southern Plains working west over the Desert Southwest and into
Intermountain West shutting off the monsoonal tap, but guidance
keeps afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the forecast over the
higher terrain mostly from residual moisture in the area.
Temperatures today are running around normal across much of the
region to about five degrees above normal across the southern areas.
Look for temperatures to warm to about five to ten degrees above
normal by the late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A few stray showers or thunderstorms are possible through this
evening, though impacts are not expected for any terminals.
Otherwise, few to scattered clouds persist throughout the night
alongside light, terrain-driven winds. Moisture arrives from the
west tomorrow. Some showers and thunderstorms may pass over VEL,
with a lower chance of storms at CNY and TEX. For drier parts of
the region, some gusts up to 20 kts may be observed. VFR
conditions prevail throughout the TAF period nonetheless.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB
AVIATION...TGJT