Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 160823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
223 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Satellite imagery shows today`s shortwave trough centered over
south-central CO and moving northeast. Isolated to scattered
precipitation associated with it is found generally east of a line
from Durango to Rifle to Craig. This precipitation area will
expand west with the day`s heating.

After a brief downturn in precipitation following passage of the
shortwave to the north and east, a strong trough over the Great
Basin will move through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This will produce more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms,
especially Tuesday afternoon over the Colorado mountains east of
a line from Hayden to Rifle to Durango.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Following the trough passage drier southwest flow will move in
Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon
another strong Pacific trough will move into the Great Basin.
Moisture will be drawn north ahead of the trough and bring an
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

The cold front followed by the upper troughline will move over
the forecast area Thursday night and Friday morning. Dry westerly
flow is expected this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Clouds and showers will continue moving up from the south mainly
affecting southwest Colorado through the morning hours. Storms
will increase this afternoon in the mountains generally south of
interstate 70. Expect VCTS and brief reduction in CIGS and VSBY
in more moderate rain showers, especially over KGUC, KDRO and
KTEX. VFR conditions should largely prevail for all TAF sites with
CIGS staying above ILS breakpoints.




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