960
FXUS65 KGJT 141734
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry, and windy conditions will be common through the
  weekend and beyond.

- Localized critical fire weather conditions will occur today
  but not widespread enough to issue any highlights.

- Critical fire weather conditions increase their coverage on
  Sunday so Fire Weather Watches have been issued for a few UT
  and CO Fire Zones.

- Temperatures remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal through the seven-
  day forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure remains centered over New Mexico as west through
southwesterly flow continues bringing dry and hot air into the
region. Mostly sunny skies are expected with a few more clouds
along the WY/CO border. Some gusty winds will occur this
afternoon across the CWA and combined with dry fuels and low
humidities, critical fire weather conditions will increase.
Coverage is not widespread enough to warrant any highlights
today. Tomorrow, however, winds will be a little bit higher and
does warrant a Fire Weather Watch for a few zones in NE UT and
northern CO. Highs will continue to run 10 to 15 degrees above
climatological normals. Triple digit highs are forecast Sunday
for the Grand Valley and Moab areas. Remaining valley locales
will see highs in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Deeper mixing on Monday will allow more gusty winds to reach the
surface further increasing fire weather concerns. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions continue to be forecast so
chances are increasing for some highlights across the CWA.
Tuesday, models remain in fairly good agreement on the passage
of a shortwave trough in the morning and afternoon, helping
cool temperatures down by about 5 degrees for most areas with 8
degrees cooler for the north. Despite the cool down this trough
passage will offer, dry air continues as this system is fairly
moisture starved. Precipitation potential remains north of our
CWA across Wyoming and the northern High Plains, with passing
cloud cover and a scant chance of some isolated virga showers,
but that`s about it. A broad and expansive ridge of high
pressure then builds in behind this system for Wednesday and
beyond, with southwest flow increasing once again late next
week...still remaining dry and temperatures returning to hot
with triple digit heat possible in the lower valleys of eastern
Utah and west-central Colorado. The hot, dry and breezy
conditions will also elevate critical fire weather concerns late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions remain anchored in place for the terminals of the
West Slope. A few thin upper level clouds will work through, but
not ceilings are expected. Winds will pick up from the
southwest this afternoon and blow 15 to 25 mph around the
region, before settling back to their terrain driven overnight
character around sunset. Clear skies will close out this TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible today
but coverage won`t be enough to issue any highlights. Sunday,
gusts of 25 mph and humidities in the low teens will be common
for northern portions of the CWA. For this reason, UT Fire
Zones 486 and 487 and also CO Fire Zones 200 and 202 are now
under Fire Weather Watches. On Monday, winds will continue to
increase in coverage so more fire weather highlights are likely.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for COZ200-202.
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for UTZ486-487.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGR