445
FXUS63 KGLD 271722
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1122 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dense fog advisory is in effect for much of the area until 3
  pm MDT (4 pm CDT) this afternoon.

- Dense fog will rapidly redevelop and expand in coverage after
  sunset and persist through sunrise Wednesday morning.

- Mild/dry conditions are forecast for mid-week.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week,
  bringing potential for more widespread precipitation
  throughout the weekend and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The ongoing Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded in area and
duration (expiration time is now 21Z/3p MDT). Observational
data/trends indicate that ongoing dense fog along the I-70
corridor at Colby and Oakley is gradually expanding northeast
toward Oberlin and Hoxie, in line with visibility forecasts via
recent runs of the HRRR, which suggests that dense fog may
persist well into the afternoon over portions of northwest KS,
mainly north and east of Colby.

In far southern and western portions of the advisory area, i.e.
eastern CO and Greeley/Wichita counties in KS, where stratus is
shallower and low ceilings will lift and mix out (partially at
least), early cancellation is likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Current observations show a negatively tilted trough over the
Northwester United States and slight ridging over the Tri-State
area. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is in place
over much of the Plains. Fog has also been developing in Eastern
Colorado, where cloud cover has cleared and there are light
east/southeasterly winds. A dense fog advisory has been issued
as visibility should drop to a quarter of a mile at times
through much of the morning. The dense fog advisory will likely
expand into at least a part of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska,
depending on how much the upper level cloud cover breaks and how
much moisture can advect in at the surface. It should
definitely be more spotty as long the cloud cover lingers.
Still, be cautious and ready for varying visibility through the
morning.

As we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, most of
the fog in the area is expected to burn or lift away. For those
along and west of a line from Benkelman, NE to Tribune, KS,
temperatures should then warm into the 60s and 70s underneath
mostly sunny skies as drier air pushes in. The rest of the area
to the east will likely stay cloud cover and have temperatures
in the 50s. A few showers could also develop as a shortwave is
forecast to move through and help provide some lift, along with
a weak surface low in the area. These showers would likely be
short lived, but could provide a quick few hundredths to maybe a
tenth or two of liquid. Overall chance is about 10-20%.

Tonight, fog may briefly return to the area tonight as some low
level saturation is forecast to remain early in the night.
However, the upper trough sliding north and east is forecast to
slightly deepen and push the surface low north and east. This
should help shift the low level flow more to out of the
southwest, bringing in drier air and eroding any fog or low
level clouds that develop. Clear skies should then be in place
with temperatures lowering into the 40s.

Wednesday, the forecast is for broad southwesterly flow to be
in place across much of the Central United States. This should
weaken the pressure gradient and lead to a fairly mild day with
temperatures around 70, clear skies, and winds around 5-10 mph.
Wednesday night, the low level flow may shift to be more from
the southeast and try and bring some low level moisture back
into the area. For now, the forecast keeps the area clear with
lows in the 30s and 40s. But, if enough moisture can move in,
fog may develop again in NW Kansas. Temperatures would also then
be more apt to stay in the 50s where fog forms.

Thursday, zonal to slightly ridged upper flow is forecast over
much of the region. This should lead to another mild day with
weak flow at the surface leading to 5-10 mph winds and mostly
sunny skies. A weak cold front may slip through overnight
Wednesday and into Thursday, and keep temperatures a few degrees
cooler than Wednesday, but likely close to 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Friday, our region is forecast to be mainly in a southwesterly
upper- level flow with a developing trough in the Pacific
Northwest (PNW). Sunday, a second deep digging trough over the
Pacific Ocean will move inland. This will interact with the
existing trough over the PNW, but models diverge on how this
interaction will play out. The track and evolution of these
troughs will determine our precipitation chances heading into
early next week.

Currently, the first trough is forecast to become more of a cut
off low sometime late Friday/early Saturday. This would favor
more widespread precipitation chances as it would generally keep
our region in a southwest upper-level flow with various
embedded shortwaves being ejected across the area Friday through
at least Tuesday. Current Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
are around 20- 60% Friday through Monday, increasing west to
east. Precipitation is expected to generally be showers.
Instability is overall weak Friday with modest lapse rates and
spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak thunderstorm or two
isn`t out of the question if it is able to tap into the weak
instability in the environment.

Monday has the potential to be a windy day with gusts up to 50
mph possible for eastern Colorado. This will also depend on how
the upper-level troughs and precipitation chances pan out, but
something to keep an eye on.

Temperature wise, Friday is expected to be pleasant with high
temperatures forecast in the 60s to 70s. Saturday through
Monday, we cool slightly with highs in the 60s. Overnight Monday
into Tuesday, temperatures could approach freezing across our
Colorado counties, with the potential for our first snow of the
season. Confidence remains low overall due to uncertainty in the
weekend forecast, especially given that it is 7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

..Poor Aviation Conditions..

LIFR to IFR conditions and light S to SE winds are likely to
prevail through the majority of the 18Z TAF period. While brief
improvement to MVFR is possible late this afternoon, conditions
will quickly deteriorate after sunset. Dense fog and/or very
low ceilings (100-300 ft AGL) are expected this evening into Wed
morning. Guidance suggests that modest improvement will not
occur until late Wed morning, near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
     COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent