153
FXUS63 KGLD 061104
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is possible this morning and Sunday morning, with
  slightly higher chances Sunday morning. Along and west of
  Highway 27 is the favored are for fog development.

- Mild weekend forecast with near average temperatures around 80
  and winds below 20 mph.

- Warmer temperatures and a more active pattern are forecast to
  return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Observations through the early morning hours had clear skies for
most of the area, with mostly cloudy skies south of Highway 40. The
cloudy skies are forecast to burn off shortly after sunrise with
maybe some patchy dense fog developing in the breaks of the cloud
cover. Otherwise, most of the area has had temperatures drop into
the 40s with the clear skies.

This morning and afternoon are forecast to be fairly benign with
high pressure over the area for most of the day. The afternoon hours
could see surface low pressure develop along the Front Range, and
increase winds to around 15 mph from the south. With clear skies
forecast for the day, temperatures are forecast to warm into the
70s, with some 80s possible depending on if smoke generally stays
out of the area.

This evening and into the overnight hours, there is low chance for
some showers and storms with the lower pressure developing along the
Front Range and some mid-level moisture moving through. Currently,
the forecast keeps the wind and pressure field fairly uniform, which
would limit the amount of convergence zones that could spark storms.
There is also some dry air forecast to be present around 850-700mb
which could keep anything that forms as virga. Wither way, no
hazards or impacts are expected from precipitation at this time. As
we get later into the night, the low level southerly flow is
forecast to allow low level moisture to advect into the area. With
winds forecast to be light or maybe slightly from the east, some
dense fog could develop if the moisture advection is strong enough.
Or, if cloud cover clears out and allows for good radiational
cooling. The favored area is generally along and west of Highway 27.
Locales that become cloud/fog covered and/or have decent moisture
advection could see temperatures linger in the upper 50s. The rest
of the area should see temperatures lower towards the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

The long-term will see a pattern that we saw a lot of back in
July. A ridge will be set up over the Four Corners and Great
Basin region as a low over the Great Lakes slowly pushes off to
the east and another low moves over the northwestern CONUS. The
ridge and northwesterly flow will dominate the CWA Sunday
through Monday night, potentially into Tuesday. The speed of the
northwestern low will determine when the northwesterly flow
will break apart, but Tuesday is when we can expect to see a
change in the weather.

Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge, the low
will slow to a crawl over the northern Rockies and potentially
Fujiwara if the center of the low splits. This looks to happen
Tuesday through the end of the workweek, as what`s left of the
high shifts its axis over the central Great Plains. In the
lower-levels, this will lead to an 850 mb high pressure system
over the mid and southern Mississippi River Valley regions as
weak lows eject off the northern Rockies with the Tri-State area
sandwiched in between the two. This will allow a southerly LLJ
to funnel mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as
warmer temperatures. Upper 80s and low 90s are expected to
return no later than Tuesday and remain through the rest of the
week. Low are expected to drop into the mid 50s and 60s
throughout the long-term.

Due to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be
a nearly daily 20% chance of showers and weak storms across the
area. Currently, no guidance is showing a strong cold front
moving through the area as the upper-level low remains somewhat
stationary. If a stronger low and cold front can eject off the
the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be in place for
severe storms. The NBM does not seem to be reflecting the
precipitation potential well in this setup. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20%; at
least one day (Tues- Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is 65%;
confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday-Friday is 10-15%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for a majority
of the period. There is the possibility for fog to briefly cause
visibility to drop down to 4SM until 14Z. After that, clear
skies with winds slowly stabilizing from the southeast around 10
kts are expected for the remainder of the day. There will be
another chance for fog and low ceilings below 1000ft tonight
after 06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK