361
FXUS63 KGLD 030602
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1202 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe storms continues for today and
  Thursday.

- Increasing signal for above normal temperatures this weekend
  into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Strongest upper flow remains over the northern plains with an
active northern stream. There is a cut off low in the much
weaker southern stream meandering across the Baja of California
today and into northern Mexico on Thursday. This feature
appears to be the source of a weak shortwave that will move
across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and into western Kansas
this afternoon and tonight. It will provide just enough synoptic
scale lift for scattered thunderstorms to develop on various
surface features. A cold front located along I-76 in northeast
Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle will be the main focus for
convective initiation around 21z. The front is slightly further
east compared to yesterday`s model runs, close enough that some
storms may drift into Yuma and Kit Carson counties and the Tri
Border area through this evening. Additional but more scattered
development may also occur along a north/south oriented
stationary front/prefrontal trough that is straddling Highway 83
in Nebraska and Kansas. Best instability today will be along
and east of that surface trough, where an axis of 1500-2000 j/kg
of SBCAPE is forecast. West of the trough instability rapidly
weakens to less than 1000j/kg and less than 500 j/kg in
Colorado. Deep layer shear will 10-20 kts in the instability
axis and 15-25 kts further west. DCAPE of up to 1500 j/kg is
forecast through 00z in eastern areas and 1000 j/kg in western
areas. Wind may end up being the primary hazard, and perhaps
some blowing dust with a dry day Tuesday, as the weak shear will
probably limit updraft organization. Nonetheless, any discrete
cells in eastern areas where instability is highest may briefly
pulse strong enough to produce hail to quarter or half dollar
size through about 03z. Overall severe threat appears to be
marginal at best.

On Thursday the northern stream jet sinks a bit further south
into northern Colorado and Nebraska with a zonal flow over the
central plains. Appears to be a weak embedded wave in the flow
for Thursday afternoon. At the surface will be a moist southerly
flow with no discernible convergence features. Convective
initiation in the afternoon appears to be tied to the shortwave
in southern Wyoming and weak low level upslope along the Front
Range and Cheyenne Ridge. Storms will move east through the
afternoon and approach the Colorado/Kansas border area around
00-03z. Instability in eastern Colorado is weak, less than 500
j/kg, but deep layer shear of 30-35 kts may be sufficient to
maintain them as the move into the local area Thursday evening.
Instability may have already peaked, but could see up to 1500
j/kg in Kansas and Nebraska through early evening. Main hazards
will likely be wind and blowing dust with these storms and
perhaps an embedded stronger storm or two capable of large hail
if they can reach the higher instability in time. Storms will
weaken as they continue east across the area through the
evening, ending by 06z.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Starting the extended period Friday, zonal flow is forecast to be in
place across the northern Plains. A mid level low pressure system is
forecast to be near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle.  Moisture is
also forecast to be in place as well with a high pressure system
cross the southeastern CONUS. Warm temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s remain forecast as well leading to the potential for
at least isolated afternoon storm coverage. Currently not a
strong signal for a favored area at this time but the pattern
appears to be fairly similar to what is being observed
currently. Additional diurnal storms off of the Rockies may be
the most likely scenario for each afternoon. The difference
appears to be the lack of upper level support which suggests
that any storms that do manage to form may be rather pulsey in
nature which puts any severe weather threat in question.

Through the weekend, ridging across the mountains is forecast to
develop which may lead to slightly higher temperatures than
currently forecast. The caveat may be that we will need to keep an
eye for any disturbances along the eastern periphery of this ridge
should it develop. Into early next week, troughing is forecast to
redevelop across the western CONUS. Some breezier days may develop
early next week with a tightening pressure gradient with the
incoming trough and the lingering ridge across the area. With the
increasing signal for synoptic forcing another return to a more
active pattern may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the night
and into Wednesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop around mid afternoon, with best chances for impacts at
KMCK through the early evening hours. Gusty winds and brief
reductions in visibility in rain will be possible near any
thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024