440
FXUS63 KGLD 310653
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1253 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today with northerly winds around 20 mph gusting up to
  40 mph. A bit cooler today with highs around 90.

- Warm again to end the weekend and start the work week with
  highs near 100.

- Slightly higher fire danger on Sunday and Monday with relative
  humidity in the teens and 20s while winds gust around 20-30
  mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Current observations show that the surface low and front that helped
spark the earlier storms is pushing out of the area to the south and
east. Winds have been shifting to out of the north in the wake of
the frontal passage with speeds around 5 to 10 mph. Meanwhile, the
storms activity has come to an end as we have stabilized quite a
bit. There is still a bit of MUCAPE which could produce a shower or
brief storm through the remainder of the night, but this is a low
chance with the main forcing mechanism moving out of the area.
Otherwise, skies should be most clear through the remainder of the
night with temperatures dropping into the 60s. There may be a few
clouds that form and push through around the Nebraska border close
to sunrise.

For the daytime hours, the surface high pressure is forecast to move
over the Plains as we shift to northwest flow aloft. However, lower
pressure is still forecast to linger along the Front Range, Southern
Plains, and Eastern Plains. This is forecast to keep a somewhat
tight pressure gradient in place across the area and allow for
northerly winds around 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. The good news
is that slightly cooler air is forecast to be in place with the
northerly flow, keeping highs forecast in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to
develop along the convergence zones along the low pressure. While
there is a chance that some of those zones shift to near our
southern counties, the best chance will be storms forming along the
Front Range and moving east. The issue for the storms is that they
are forecast to encounter drier and more stable air, likely causing
most of them to fall apart. With this, the area has a low chance
around 10% that storms make it to the area. If a storm does survive,
it may produce a wind gust to 60 mph, but would likely be sub-
severe.

Friday night, skies should initially start partly cloudy from the
storms in the region before clearing and allowing for mostly clear
skies. The high pressure is also forecast to broaden over much of
the Plains, allowing winds to become light and variable. As such,
temperatures should be able to fall a decent amount with upper 50s
forecast in Eastern Colorado, and low 60s across much of NW Kansas
and SW Nebraska. There is a 10% chance for some fog east of Highway
83, but we`ll have to see how much low level moisture can linger in
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptically for the Long Term period, on Saturday there is a
ridge that will begin to transition to more zonal flow for the
rest of the period. Throughout the week there will be some
embedded shortwave disturbances moving through that will create
some precipitation chances for the County Warning Area (CWA).

Overall for the Long Term forecast, it is looking to be hot,
dry, and windy. High temperatures for this period are forecast
to be in the high 90s, with Monday potentially reaching the low
100s. Winds look to be breezy to gusty and mainly form the south
to east for the majority of the CWA as shortwaves move through
the region.

Monday does have some fire weather concerns. Monday`s highs are
forecast to be in the high 90s to low 100s for the majority of
the CWA. Relative humidity values are looking to be in the high
teens to low 20s, particularly for areas west of KS Hwy 27.
Looking at the wind gusts, they are currently forecast to be in
the range of 20-40 mph for the majority of the CWA. Moving to
GFDI, values mainly for Eastern Colorado are in the 30-59, which
would promote very high fire growth. Another concern is the
threat of dry lightning from any thunderstorms that develop over
Eastern Colorado. With these conditions elevated fire weather
is possible; however there are some discrepancies regarding the
timing of when all the ingredients for elevated criteria will be
met at the same time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for
KGLD and KMCK. Winds start out from the north around 10 knots.
Around 10Z, winds begin to pick up and shift to primarily out of the
northwest with gusts around 25 knots possible. There could be a gust
up to 30 knots mainly during the early afternoon. After 00Z, winds
will shift to out of the northeast and back down to around 10 knots
or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...Rhoades