315
FXUS63 KGLD 292100
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief break in the precipitation with a few showers through
  the afternoon and evening. More widespread precipitation is
  expected to begin Wednesday morning.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area starting
  tonight and continuing through the day on Thursday. While
  rainfall totals are forecast to generally be around 1-3"
  during that time, there is the possibility for some parts of
  the area to see 3-5" of rain.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
  afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph, hail around
  an inch, and maybe a few tornadoes are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 0300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Current observations have an upper low/trough around Southern Nevada
with southwest flow ahead of it over the Tri-State area. The
remnants of Hurricane Polo are also beginning to push northeast
along the trough, with the location currently in NW Mexico. The
continued southwest flow has kept the area cloudy and
temperatures around the upper 60s and lower 70s. With a broad
area of low pressure over the area, winds have been light and
will likely remain that way through the night. With the forcing
weakening across the area, the shower coverage and intensity
have diminished quite a bit. The chances for showers will now
be around 10-25% through much of the evening, mainly for
isolated showers.

Later tonight around 3-6am MT, the surface low is forecast to near
the area as it continues to move north through the Panhandles
region. This will slowly increase precipitation chances as the
outer bands of the low start moving into the area. Before the
precipitation and during it, fog is possible as we will likely
remain fairly saturated. The low level cloud cover should keep us
insulated enough to avoid dense fog. Through the rest of the
morning, the showers and maybe a few storms should spread over the
rest of the area as the low inches closer. That being said, locales
along Highway 34 may not see much unless the low makes in far enough
north. Conversely, heavy rain is likely south of I-70, where more
concentrated bands are possible. The persistent cloud cover and
precipitation should keep temperatures in the 60s and low 70s.
Otherwise, expect the winds to increase as the low gets closer and
increases the pressure gradient. Speeds will likely near 20 mph with
gusts around 35-40 mph.

Wednesday afternoon gets less certain as guidance is split on how
far north the low advances. The current forecast is for the low to
stay more south around the KS/OK border, which would keep the rain
showers over the area. The encroaching dry air with the dry slot
would then begin to lower the coverage as the afternoon and evening
go on. By the overnight hours, there may be one final batch of rain
along the edge of the dry slot. In this case, most of the showers
and storms would be sub-severe and flooding would be the only
concern. The other possible scenario is that the low tracks further
north before the dry slot intrudes. In this case, the warm front
would over the area around I-70. While low instability and weak
lapse rates would keep most storms tame, we would have an increased
chance for severe weather. The main threats would be wind gusts to
60 mph, hail around an inch, and a few tornadoes. While still not
very high, the tornado threat would be better than recent events due
to very low LCLs and plenty of low level and effective shear.
Overall this has a 35% chance of occurrence and would likely
occur around 3-8pm MT.

Late Wednesday and Thursday will generally see the rain event come
to the end as the system shifts east. The question is how fast as a
slower system gives more rain compared to a faster system. For now,
the forecast is that a final cluster of storms forms along I-70
near the KS/CO border and pushes east/southeast with the
system, giving the southern half of the area one last batch of
rain. This would likely clear out during the early afternoon
hours with temperatures in the 60s from the lingering cloud
cover. should the system be faster, the precip would be more apt
to end in the morning with highs pushing 70.

In regards to the precipitation amounts and the Flood Watch, the
precipitation totals are likely to be 1-3 inches south of Highway
36. For those along and north, the recent trend has put this area in
the gradient and may lead to some areas receiving less than a
quarter of an inch. Higher amounts in smaller areas are possible
should we receive more storms than stratiform rain. Strong
storms and/or training showers/storms could allow for higher
amounts still approaching 6 inches. But this looks to be about a
5-10% occurrence with the more southerly shift lowering the
overall instability. &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Synoptically, as the previous day`s system moves out of the County
Warning Area (CWA), our upper level flow will largely remain from
the west to northwest though Tuesday. During this period, the jet
stream remains to the north near the US/Canada border throughout
the weekend. Over the Four Corner region, a weak upper level
ridge is likely to set up starting Friday morning and lingering
through late next week. There is some uncertainty in the upper
level pattern for Tuesday. Guidance currently indicated either a
weak shortwave or an upper level trough moving through the
area. Currently, the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is
currently forecast at 5-10%, however the shortwave could
increase precipitation chances depending on its strength.

Overall, temperatures for the weekend into early next week look to
stay under 80 degrees until around Tuesday. Friday looks to be the
coolest day, with highs in the 60s. By Monday and Tuesday, highs
creep back into the low to mid 80s for the majority of the Tri-State
area. Precipitation chances for the weekend and early work week
remain low each day, with PoPs currently around 5-10%. Both the NBM
and LREF ensemble means show less than 500 J/kg of CAPE daily.
However, as noted previously, the passing shortwave on Tuesday could
bring a slight bump in PoPs.

Friday through Sunday afternoon, sustained winds and gusts are
forecast to remain mostly below 25 mph. Starting Sunday
afternoon/evening winds should begin to transition to come from the
south for the remainder of the long term period. Monday is currently
forecast to be the windiest day of the period as 850 mb jet
develops. While guidance disagrees on the exact location of area
of the highest gusts, which could be in the range of 30-45 mph.
Currently the NBM favors the Colorado counties as well as areas
north of I-70 and west of HWY 83 for the highest gusts. Whereas
the LREF favors the higher gusts to be over the majority of the
CWA. Currently Fire Weather concerns remain fairly low due to
the Relative Humidity values staying above 30% and soil moisture
likely remaining fairly saturated from the recent
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through at least
02Z, with maybe a few passing showers. Winds should generally
remain below 10 kts during this period. After 02Z, chances start
to increase for ceilings to lower and fog to try and form. Once
low ceilings and or fog form, expect them to bring worse flying
conditions with ceilings eventually lowering to around 200-500
ft and visibility maybe reaching 1SM. The worse conditions are
more likely after 09Z. After 09Z is when the better chances for
rain are forecast with precipitation moving in from the south.
Most of the precipitation should just be rain showers, but a few
storms may mix in at times, especially after 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for COZ090>092.
NE...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
     Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...KAK