209
FXUS63 KGLD 100502
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1102 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit on the warm side with highs in the 80s and low 90s
  through the weekend.

- Increased fire weather concerns through this evening and again Saturday,
  especially for counties along the Tri-State border. Relative
  humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30-35 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The primary weather concerns in the near-term continues to be
focused on near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The
lowest relative humidity values are in place over northeast
Colorado and along the Tri-State border area; however, winds
have struggled to climb above 15-20 mph gusts and the higher
wind gusts have been fairly spotty. Stronger winds with gusts of
25-35 mph have been further east, generally along and east of
Hwy 25 and south of I- 70...but relative humidities have stayed
in the 20-25 percent range. Relative humidity values will
recover decently overnight despite breezy winds. Similar
conditions are expected to develop again tomorrow afternoon.

The upper air pattern is in the process of transitioning from the
northwest flow we saw most of the week to southwesterly this
weekend. This transition is being driven primarily by high pressure
shifting from the southeast states out into the Atlantic as
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall later this evening and moves inland,
becoming extratropical; and a longwave trough digging southward
across the West Coast helping to amplify ridging over the Central
Plains as Isaias lifts towards the Ohio River valley. At the
surface, troughing along the front range of the Rockies will keep
the gradient tight over Kansas and Nebraska through tomorrow night.
A stout low-level jet will set-up tonight just above a weak near-
surface inversion, so expect there to be quite a bit of higher
momentum air to mix down resulting in breezy conditions to continue
overnight. This will also help to keep temperatures warmer overnight
with lows only expected to drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

A front will begin to push through Sunday night with cooler
temperatures filtering in behind the front for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 253 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

On Monday, upper-level southwesterly flow is forecast to start
next week with ridging to the east and a deep trough to the
southwest. With our area being in between these features, clouds
should be partly over the area. Winds are expected to be
slightly breezy at 15 mph from the south and afternoon
temperatures being in the 80s.

Tuesday, Southwesterly flow will still be prominent over the
area as the trough starts to move eastward. This will allow
drier air aloft to enter over the area. A weak surface low
pressure system will likely be going through the area within the
early morning hours. This should allow cooler temperatures into
the 70s and a slight increase in cloud cover north of I-70.
However, a secondary surface low pressure system will likely
form to the west during the evening hours. This should lead into
our first chances for evening showers to occur throughout the
period as this could bring low level moisture into the area from
the south/southwest. There is medium confidence (40-60%) that
this will happen.

Wednesday, it is very likely that lingering showers from Tuesday
will occur throughout the day as the upper-level trough starts
to move into the Four Corners region. Though later in the day,
there is a possibility that an afternoon thunderstorm could
happen as a cold front could pass through. The limiting factor
for storms will be elevated surface based CAPE over 600 J/kg.
There is low confidence (25%) that this will occur. If storms do
occur it will be weak. Otherwise, it will be cloudy and
scattered showers over the area.

Thursday, the consistency of the upper-level trough starts to
become unclear as the axis moves over the area. Guidance shows
some uncertainty with the timing and could either speed up or
slow down as another cold front moves through. If the trough
speeds up, we could expect the cold front to be in the early
morning hours before dawn with lower afternoon temperatures. If
the cold front slows down, we can then expect to see slightly
warmer temperatures with the front occurring in the afternoon.
If precipitation occurs, it will likely be west of Hwy 27.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the
period with clear skies. The main thing to watch for is low
level wind shear, both through the first 6 hours of the period
and then after 00Z Sunday. The low level jet is forecast to
develop around 300-500 ft with speeds around 40 kts. Otherwise,
winds at the surface will remain from the south, with gusts
occasionally to 20-30 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...KAK