171
FXUS63 KGLD 301822
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1222 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This afternoon, storms may produce large hail up to 2.5 inches
  in diameter, wind gusts of up to 70 mph, and a couple of
  tornadoes.

- Monday there is a marginal risk for severe storms possible in
  the afternoon to evening. Primary threats are large hail up to
  2 inches and gusts up to 60 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Today, is still a conditional high impact severe weather day. As the
500 mb moves over the Four Corners, it will create another trough
axis that will sweep over the CWA in the afternoon hours. Down at
850 mb, this will allow a low to form in northern Colorado and move
to the north-northeast in the afternoon. This low will draw in
southwesterly, warm and dry air, setting up a dryline. East of the
dryline, southeasterly flow is expected to keep dew points in the
60s. The big question is where will this dryline be when both the
500 mb vorticity catches up with it and when surface temperatures
hit convective-T values. As it stands, the dryline could setup
anywhere along and east a line from Yuma, CO to Oakley, KS when
storms start to fire. This also includes a potential that storms
fire to the east of the CWA and we are not impacted.

It`s worth noting the farther east the dryline sets up, the less
likely it will be that any storms develop. This is due to a large
separation between the low and upper-level forcing factors.
Additionally, persistent cloud cover over the northern CWA this
morning may reduce the instability storms this afternoon can
tap into. This may limit the severe weather threat in
southwestern Nebraska.

These storms look to fire between 20-23Z as a broken line of
individual cells. Low level dew points look to remain around 60 in
the northeastern CWA. This will allow CAPE values to climb into the
2,500-4,000 J/kg range with effective shear of 30-55 kts, and
promote surface based storms. This would present a significant
threat for all hazards. Hail in the 2-3.25 inch range, 75 MPH wind
gusts from down bursts, and a few tornadoes, potentially long-lived
tornadoes, would be possible. Convection looks to fire along most of
the dryline very quickly and then move to the northeast, out of the
CWA, by 4Z.

There is an additional area of concern for storms around Yuma
county. This area could see convection fire on the western edge of
the dryline or an approaching warm front. Either way, this would
also fire off storms around 20-23Z in Yuma county and move them to
the northeast. Then around 2-5Z, as a weak cold front enters,
additional precipitation may occur. The first wave of storms for
this area could be splitting supercells with hail up to 2.5 inches
and a brief tornado being the main threats. The second wave may
produce some hail up to 1 inch, but otherwise should remain sub-
severe. Overnight, temperatures look to cool into the mid 40s to
upper 50s as the trough exits to the northeast.

Sunday, we will sit under southwesterly flow aloft with 850 mb being
fairly disorganized as we are sandwiched between a high over the
Gulf coast and a low over the Northern Plains. This will promote
mostly clear skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s. A weak 500 mb
shortwave may move over eastern Colorado in the afternoon, allowing
some showers or storms to form off the Palmer Divide. Likely, these
showers will decay as they enter the CWA, but there is a 5% chance
they persist over the central CWA moving to the east overnight. Lows
overnight look to cool into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

For The upper pattern there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched
between two lows over Canada on Monday Guidance is showing a little
shortwave disturbance that can be seen at 500 mb that moves through
the CWA. The high temperatures for the day are in the 80s to 90s.
The lows remain in the 50s.

There are chances for precipitation/storm chances for Monday
afternoon and into the overnight hours. Starting with instability,
guidance is suggesting there being at least 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE.
Some models do suggest there being around 2000 J/kg which would be
on the higher end. The NBM and LREF`s 90th percentile show around
2000 J/kg as well. Moving to wind shear, the SFC-500 mb shear is in
the 35-50 kts range. The lapse rates are currently forecast to be in
the 7.9-9.0 C/km range. There are some models that are showing
higher Lapse Rates, which would lead to high instability values.
NCAR AI-NWP does show a signal that would help build confidence in
severe weather outcomes. Currently, there is some disagreements with
location and specific timing, but the timing does look to be the
afternoon into evening. Looking at soundings there is a mixture of
both hooked and straight-line hodographs. The main threats that
would be associated with these storms would be hail up to 2.00",
Gusts in the 45-55 kts, and a brief tornado could be possible if
storms develop.

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The
winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is
precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the
early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg,
with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe
chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about
a 30-50% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.30".
Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also
looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under
30 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving
or stationary.


For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the
northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that
will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be
on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then
the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow. Towards next weekend
there are signs of a trough that moves into the area from the
Pacific Northwest.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for
the majority of this period. For Friday and Saturday the
temperatures warm up a bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern
transitions. The lows are forecast to be in the 50-60s range.
Wednesday through Friday PoPs are in the 20-60% range during the
each day`s afternoon/evening hours. Saturday Precipitation chances
decrease to 10-30%. As for severe potential, there is no strong
signal for anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is
about 5-7 days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1027 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

KGLD will see VFR conditions prevail through the period. Between
1-5Z winds may be variable at 10 kts as winds become
northwesterly.

KMCK will continue to see gusty winds for the rest of the day
ahead of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. KMCK will at least see storms in the area between
23-01Z. If one of the storms moves over the airport, expect
near- minimum conditions along with strong and erratic winds.
The storms looks to fully leave the KMCK area by 2Z, but some
lingering showers and gust winds may persist until 5-6Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...CA