196
FXUS63 KGLD 280828
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue into the weekend. Severe
  storms are possible Friday and Saturday with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts as the main threats.

- Dense fog is possible tonight, especially east of Highway 25.

- Seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s/80s are forecast
  through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

Current observations show a large trough over the Western United
States while showers/storms/moisture continues to pull in from
the southeast along a weaker leading trough axis. This axis has
been responsible for most of the precipitation we have seen the
last 12 hours. The forecast calls for the main trough to remain
roughly in place, causing little displacement of the upper
forcing over the area. With this, showers and storms are
forecast to continue, though the early morning hours may lead to
a small break as instability continues to drop across the area.
Where there is a lack of showers and storms this morning, some
patches of fog are possible. Dense fog is unlikely due to the
decent coverage of the precipitation continuing to mix things
out. As the day continues, temperatures are forecast to try and
warm to the 70s, though continued clouds and showers could keep
most of the area in the 60s.

Tonight, slight upper ridging is forecast to develop over the area
which should lower the chances and coverage for showers and
precipitation. With the moisture still in place and light winds, fog
is forecast to develop across most of the area. There is the
potential for it to be dense, especially east of Highway 25 where
winds may take a bit more of an upslope easterly direction.
Temperatures should be steady in the 50s and 60s.

Friday, the main trough to the west is forecast to begin pushing
east towards the area. As it does so, it is forecast to begin
pushing lower pressure and drier air towards the area. This should
begin to clear some of the cloud cover out from the western portions
of the area. It may also drop relative humidity into the teens for
Eastern Colorado, though critical fire weather conditions appear to
be unlikely with the low moving over and weakening winds. Will need
to keep an eye on the low placement as gusts to 35 mph are otherwise
possible. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s for most of
the area, but those east of Highway 25 may stay more in the 60s/70s
as the cloud cover and fog could linger through much of the day. The
main concern for Friday is the potential for severe storm. With a
potential dryline in the area, storms are forecast to fire up along
it during the afternoon and evening hours. The main question is how
much dry air will move in and lower instability. Current guidance
favors storms firing up along the Palmer Divide and clipping areas
near the Tri-State border area. It also favors counties south of the
area where moisture may remain more available. That being said, the
NAM as usual is suggesting that enough moisture would linger for a
line of storms to develop and push across the area. While 0-6km
shear is a little low around 30 kts, MUCAPE could be anywhere
between 1000-3000 J/kg. This could support storms with large hail
and damaging wind gusts, especially if instability is on the higher
side.

Once any storms clear the area, the area is forecast to be split
between moist in the northeast and dry towards the southwest. For
those who remain in moist air, additional showers and storms may
develop early in the night. Otherwise, dense fog would be a concern
again with winds forecast to be from the southeast. Lows are
forecast to range from the upper 40s in the west, to the 60`s in the
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

A low that has been sitting over the Great Basin will finally begin
to lift to the north over the weekend. As this low lifts, upper-
level flow will turn more westerly, which will usher in drier air.
As a result of this, chances for showers or thunderstorms over the
weekend have decreased. Currently, chances look to range from 10-30%
but the caveat will be 30-40F temperature/dewpoint spreads. This
will likely limit the amount of moisture that will reach the surface
with any showers or storms that do develop. The development timing
for any showers and storms will likely be diurnally driven with peak
convection occurring during the afternoon/evening Saturday and
Sunday. The main concerns with any convection would be strong gusty
outflow winds which may be able to kick up some dust. Otherwise,
temperatures look to warm some for the weekend with highs getting
into the mid to possibly upper 80s in some locations.

The start of June sees an omega block like pattern persist across
the CONUS. However, models are showing this pattern gradually
breakdown through the week. Temperatures to start the week look to
remain around seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Warmer temperatures look to gradually return as a shift in the
weather pattern begins. The incoming weather pattern looks to be one
that will support warmer temperatures as a large ridge begins to
build across the central CONUS. Weak shortwaves may bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Confidence in the
intensity and coverage of these showers/storms is still low. At this
time, there does not seem to be much evidence for any large
disturbances or significant severe weather chances due to the
ridging over the central CONUS. That is subject to change but at
this moment nothing noteworthy looks to be on the horizon over the
next 3-7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast to give way to
MVFR or IFR conditions as the night progresses. The lower
ceilings and visibility will favor KGLD, though isolated showers
and storms may briefly lift KGLD ceilings and visibility. This
is especially likely around 10-14Z. 10-14Z is also when showers
and maybe some storms become more likely to impact KMCK. KGLD
will likely ceilings below 2000ft for most of the day tomorrow,
along with chances for additional rainfall. KMCK could see
showers linger, but will likely have ceilings lift to around
4000-5000ft. However, after roughly 22-00Z, conditions for both
sites will begin to worsen again as ceilings lower below 600ft
and visibility potentially nears 1 mile or less as the shower
and storm activity shifts off to the east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Starting Wednesday morning, a low pressure system will pass
over the western CWA moving north. This low is forecast to move
slowly, finally leaving the area Thursday night. During this time
widespread broken showers with embedded storms are expected across
the CWA. This will provide much needed precipitation to portions of
the CWA, focused mainly around Gove county. Precipitation totals
lower farther north, with the REFS 75th percentile only being around
0.2 inch of QPF along the U.S. 34 corridor. Locations south and west
of an area from Hill City, to Colby, to Tribune have a 30-50% chance
of seeing an inch of QPF by Friday morning.

There is an outside (<5%) chance that up to 3.5 inches of rain falls
by Friday morning in or near Gove county. This would occur is
multiple rounds of storms can train over the same location,
potentially leading to a flood threat. As it stands, there is a 25%
chance nuisance flooding will occur in the southeastern CWA by late
Thursday night, and only a 5% chance flash flooding occurs.

Additional light precipitation is possible throughout the day
Friday, but QPF looks to remain under 0.25 inch.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...CA