925
FXUS63 KGLD 140502
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1002 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances start this evening lasting through early Saturday
  afternoon.

- Early morning sub-freezing Sunday morning could lead to black
  ice.

- Localized to widespread critical fire weather conditions are
  forecast Monday through Wednesday. Tuesday is the most
  concerning with high winds and blowing dust potential as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 101 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Skies cleared out quite a bit across the area this morning, but as
of 11:30 AM MT, we are seeing some clouds start to cross into the
southern portions of the area from Southeast Colorado and Southern
Kansas. Highs today are expected to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s
today, with the warmer temperatures over the northern half of the
area where little cloud cover should impact our heating potential
until the late afternoon.

This evening, the surface low over Southeast Colorado is
expected to slide across the Panhandles and Southern Kansas
after Midnights in the ~11 PM to 3 AM MT timeframe. As the low
moves, we could see some convergence of Gulf moisture and
moisture moving across the Rockies over the Tri-State area
helping to boost our rain chances after 6 PM MT and through the
overnight hours, especially along/south of I-70 where
Probability of Precipitation chances are around 50-80%. The
entire area could see some rain tonight, though rainfall amounts
could be less than 0.25". South of I-70 could see rainfall
amounts of 0.25-0.5" with about 60% of confidence. Storm chances
have decreased for the area given the delayed start of the
precipitation. The peak window for the precipitation is between
11 PM tonight through ~11 AM MT Saturday morning. Rain chances
should come to an end Saturday morning from northwest to
southeast. Overnight lows tonight should fall into the mid 30s
to lower 40s, so the ground should stay too warm for any icing
potential tonight. However, any water that remains on roads and
sidewalks tomorrow night could freeze with overnight lows
forecast to be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. High
temperatures on Saturday should stay a bit cooler given the
lingering clouds through the early afternoon keeping
temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Sunday the area will be under northwest flow aloft as the upper
level low moves along the Oklahoma/Texas Red River border while an
upper level ridge builds over the Western CONUS. The start of this
pattern will begin our warming trend across the region as afternoon
highs are anticipated to warm into the mid to upper 60s. There could
be some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon with
relative humidity values in the upper teens to lower 20s. Winds are
forecast to be out of the south to southwest with gusts to 35 mph
possible with the strongest winds over East-Central Colorado. Over
the next few days we will need to watch closely for falling dewpoint
temperatures and lower humidity values to see if a Red Flag Warning
may be needed. For now, confidence is less than 30% for critical
fire conditions. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Ridging is forecast to be overhead Monday morning, with
southwesterly upper level flow overspreading the Western United
States. Warm, dry conditions are favored for the early and middle
portions of next week, as several shortwave systems would have the
potential to impact the area. High temperatures are currently
forecast in the mid-60s to lower-70s Monday, with RH potentially to
drop into the mid to upper-teens for portions of Eastern Colorado
and Northwest Kansas. Brief, locally critical fire weather
conditions are possible Monday afternoon, as NBM guidance indicates
about a 60-70% chance for wind gusts to meet the criteria.

Dry, windy conditions look to be in place Tuesday as a shortwave
trough crosses the Rocky Mountains during the morning hours. An
attendant surface cyclone to this system is forecast to form across
Wyoming and Colorado, and undergo intense deepening due to lee
cyclogenesis and upper-level divergence in the left exit region of
an 80-100 kt upper level jet. West-southwesterly to westerly winds
for Eastern Colorado may be sustained at 35-40 mph, with gusts in
the 50-60 mph range possible. NBM guidance suggests that a 50-60%
chance exists for High Wind Warning criteria to be met.
Additionally, critical fire weather criteria may be met across the
Tri-State area Tuesday afternoon, with RH values forecast in the low
to mid-teens, and wind gusts at or above 25 mph for most locations.
NBM guidance suggests a 90% chance or better for wind gusts to meet
critical fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado,
and about a 50-60% chance wind gusts in Northwest Kansas are able to
meet criteria. Overall confidence in a Red Flag Warning being issued
for Tuesday afternoon continues to increase, with Eastern Colorado
currently showing the strongest signal for critical fire weather
conditions. Blowing dust may also be a concern Tuesday, particularly
for counties along the Colorado Border where winds are forecasted to
be the highest. Passage of the surface cyclone may allow for a wind
shift that could introduce a wall of dust as a potential hazard,
though confidence is relatively low for this scenario. Some GFS
soundings indicate the possibility of a mixed layer around 3 km high
Tuesday afternoon, which could mix out blowing dust. Even so, more
concentrated plumes of dust can`t be ruled out at this time. High
temperatures Tuesday are currently forecast in the upper-60s to low-
70s.

Another shortwave system Wednesday morning and afternoon may provide
similar conditions to Tuesday. High temperatures are forecast to be
slightly cooler (low to mid-60s), though westerly surface winds may
allow RH values to be in the low to mid-teens once again throughout
the Tri-State area Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts for counties
along the Colorado Border may cross 25 mph, with gusts between 40
and 50 mph possible in Eastern Colorado. High Wind Warnings and Red
Flag Warnings may once again need to be considered. Plumes of dust
can`t be ruled out for Wednesday at this time.

A winter system is possible between Wednesday evening and Thursday,
as another shortwave trough moves through the area. Light snow and
rain are possible as this system passes through. Snow accumulations
up to about an inch are forecast for the Tri-State area, though
Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska look to be where the
majority of snowfall would take place. High temperatures on Thursday
are currently forecast in the low to mid-50s, but could be lower due
to snowfall or quicker passage of the cold front with this system.

Model guidance is a bit divergent after Thursday afternoon, though
cooler conditions are favored going into the weekend. High
temperatures on Friday are currently forecast in the low to mid-50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 958 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain showers are starting to develop across the area. GLD
remains the favored terminal to be impacted by rain showers over
the next 6-10 hours where for MCK it appears to be a little more
conditional due to the positioning of the system. Current VFR
conditions will decline over the next few hours mainly for GLD
with around a 60% chance of IFR ceilings occurring. MCK is a
little trickier due to the positioning of the system a 20-30%
chance of some MVFR ceilings between 10 and 13Z. Some guidance
does indicate another round of showers for MCK around 18Z or
so, confidence was not quite there to introduce into the TAF at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     evening for COZ252>254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK/Davis
AVIATION...Trigg