752
FXUS63 KGLD 231124
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
  in Colorado. Locally strong wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Windy conditions today with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
  Patchy blowing dust possible, but reductions in visibility are
  not likely.

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation
  potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this
  system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The next few days will be dominated by a closed low over the Great
Basin and Four Corners region gradually crossing over the Rockies.
This low will be pushing out a ridge that`s currently extending over
the Great Plains and Mississippi River Valley. These two features
have created a moderately strong pressure gradient in the low
levels, leading to breezy conditions. Widespread vorticity is also
seen all around the incoming low, which has promoted some showers
and isolated storms to form overnight.

Today, south-southwesterly winds will be stout, but nothing crazy
for the High Plains. Sustained winds around 20 kts with most gusts
in the 30-35 kts range, and a few isolated gusts around 45 kts being
possible. Despite the strong winds, fire weather concerns are not
high as RH values will remain above 20% for the entire area.
However, there is a 50% chance we`ll see some hazy skies from
blowing dust, which will impact air quality, but there is less than
10% confidence that blowing dust reduces visibility to less than 1
mile. If it were to reduce visibility, it would be near a source
region, such as a burn scar or open field. Confidence is this low
because scattered to broken cloud cover looks to linger around for a
bulk of the day, preventing low level lapse rates climbing over 9
C/km.

Highs today look to largely top out around 80. However, areas near
the Tri-State border have a 30% chance of warming into the mid to
upper 80s if the clouds break for most of the day. There is also a 5-
10% chance that we see some isolated showers or storms today.
Location for these showers is very much unknown and could pop-up
anywhere across the CWA. The reason location confidence is so low is
because the low-level flow is so fast and the mid/upper level
vorticity is so scattered that these little showers of precipitation
and virga will be moving very quickly. There is a ~2% chance that a
storm could tap into some mild instability and downburst, producing
45-50 kts winds. The precipitation potential increases to around 15%
after 0Z, as the low level dew point depression decreases from
diurnal cooling, but the severe threat decreases.

Overnight, the winds will weaken slightly after sunset, but
southerly winds gusting around 15-25 kts are still expected until
after 6Z. After 6Z, winds will weaken for 1-3 hours ahead of the
incoming cold front from the aforementioned low crossing the
Rockies.

The cold front is forecast to enter northwestern Yuma county first
around 11Z and finally be through the CWA around 0Z. With the cold
front, expect a sharp change in wind directions to be coming from
the north, and gusts to rapidly return to around 25-35 kts. As we
get closer to sunset, the pressure gradient weakens some, leading to
gradually weakening winds in the late afternoon and evening hours.

With the cold front, we expect to see additional precipitation fire
off. This precipitation looks to persist through the remainder of
the short-term period as the front stalls out over the CWA. Severe
weather is not expected from these storms, but we could see some
isolated embedded storms within the widespread rain. The primary
hazard from this system will be the amount of rain we receive. More
information about the precipitation can be found in the Hydrology
section below.

Saturday will have a major contrast for high temperatures, thanks to
the cold front. The northwestern CWA will likely remain in the 50s
while areas in and around Graham county will warm into the low 70s.
Sunday and Monday, highs look to be in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Low
temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings look to be in the upper 30s
to near 50, with the cooler temperatures in the northwestern CWA.
Tuesday morning, as we`re expecting the precipitation to be tapering
off, temperatures near the Tri-State border look to be cooling to
around freezing. If there is any lingering precipitation Tuesday
morning, some snow could mix in, although no accumulations are
expected. It`s worth noting that we have passed the end of the
growing season, so we will not be issuing any Frost or Freeze
products for the rest of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging
trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be
pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area
(CWA).

Our region is on the back end of a weak jet streak, so we have the
potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for the western
CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although lingering cloud
cover from earlier precipitation could prevent stronger winds from
mixing down. If skies completely clear, or clear earlier, we could
see stronger winds. Models are a bit conflicted with the wind
potential. NBM probabilities have around a 50% chance of wind gusts
over 35 mph for our eastern Colorado counties. LREF has
probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph around 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the
area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest
upper-level flow with a developing trough of the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high
temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly
upper-level flow will bring afternoon and overnight chances for rain
showers as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the region.
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 30-40% with low QPF
amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an
active weather pattern depending on the track and evolution of the
aforementioned trough off the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Winds will be the main thing to keep an eye
on. During the day, maximum gusts will likely be around 35-40 kts in
the afternoon hours. Gusts are expected to persist through the
entire period. Additionally, LLWS from the southwest at 40-45
kts around 200-400 feet AGL is possible at KMCK Saturday
morning, but is more likely at KGLD. The LLWS will persist
until the Saturday morning cold front pushes through.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

We are expecting a closed low system crossing over the Rockies to
provide prolonged forcing to a warm, moist air mass that has been
advected in from the Gulf thanks to days of southeasterly flow
leading up to the low`s approach. WPC has issued Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight risk. These
outlooks aren`t unfounded, but confidence for flash flooding, which
that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason being, there does
not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over
most of the CWA and a band of up to 3 inches by Tuesday morning.
This is likely too high of QPF values, which is supported by
ensemble means. Ensemble means suggest most of the CWA will receive
0.5-1.25 inches and a band of up to 2 inches. These values seem more
realistic.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold
front stalls out Saturday night, creating a stationary boundary as
the ridge to the southeast and low to the northwest duke it out.
This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band, with
its northern extent likely not crossing I-70. The band may setup
anywhere between U.S. 385 and U.S. 83. Wherever the band sets up,
there will be a 30% chance of areal and/or river flooding. Low water
crossings will likely be the first areas impacted from any flooding
that does occur.

It`s worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not
remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs,
a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form
and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA