343
FXUS63 KGLD 020815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and warming trend over the weekend.

- A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM MDT this morning
  for the entire Tri-State Area.

- Sunday morning lows in the mid-upper 30`s west of Hwy 83.
  Reduced/lower potential for frost, especially compared to this
  morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sat May 2 2026

Expect dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend as an
upper level ridge over the Intermountain West extends eastward
across the Rockies (today) and Central/Southern Plains (tonight
and Sunday).

Frost (This Morning): A Frost Advisory remains in effect until
8 AM MDT/9 AM CDT for the entire Tri-State Area. As of 2 AM MDT,
temperatures were in the lower to mid 30`s in eastern Colorado
and nearby Kansas and Nebraska border counties. Further to the
east (along/east of Hwy 83, in particular), where ongoing cloud
cover has kept temperatures in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s and
cloud cover may well persist through sunrise, frost is far less
likely to develop.

Frost (Tonight): Low temperatures may reach the mid-upper 30`s
over portions of the area late tonight and early Sunday morning,
mainly west of Hwy 83. While patchy frost can`t entirely be
ruled-out, warmer temperatures and a light southwest breeze
suggest a reduced/lower potential for frost, especially
compared to this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

***Synopsis***

A split flow pattern looks to be in place across the West Coast
Sunday morning, with northwesterly flow overhead at 500-mb.
Several shortwaves systems embedded in the northwesterly flow
may eject into the Continental United States from Canada Sunday
and Monday. The strongest of these shortwaves appears to be on
Monday, which is forecast to allow a surface high pressure
system from Canada to intrude into the Northern High Plains.
This shortwave trough from the north looks to merge with a
trough in the Southwestern United States, moving in overhead
during the afternoon hours Tuesday. Upper- level troughing may
remain overhead through Wednesday afternoon, as another split
flow pattern sets up across the Western United States going into
Thursday. Deterministic guidance begins to diverge a little bit
from here, though ensemble guidance would indicate that this
pattern may persist through the end of the forecast period.

***Sunday***

A shortwave trough embedded in the initial northwesterly flow
looks to traverse the forecast area Sunday morning and
afternoon, with a weak surface low along its leading edge. This
would allow southwesterly surface flow across the region during
this time period. As such, warm and dry conditions are favored
Sunday afternoon, with high temperatures forecast in the mid-70s
to mid- 80s, and relative humidity (RH) values in the mid to
upper-teens. Despite these dry conditions, critical fire weather
is not yet a major concern, as current guidance does not favor
wind gusts meeting criteria for the hazard. Ensemble guidance
seems to be in agreement with this assessment, as the majority
of the CWA has a 1 in 3 chance or less for RH values to meet
criteria for critical fire weather according to the LREF. The
one exception is across Western portions of Kit Carson and
Cheyenne Counties in Colorado, where there is as high as a 75%
chance for these lower RH values. Even so, NBM guidance suggests
a 25% chance or less for wind gusts to exceed critical fire
weather criteria in this zone, with the entire forecast area
seeing less than a 1 in 3 chance for wind gusts 25 mph or
higher. As such, confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed
on Sunday is low, at 5% or less. While brief northwesterly
surface flow may exist behind the weak surface low, temperatures
are forecast to be in the 40s overnight Sunday.

***Monday***

As another, even stronger, embedded shortwave trough digs
southward into the United States Monday, the leading edge of a
surface high pressure system from Canada is favored to enter the
United States. This would allow a cold front to traverse the
forecast region sometime during the morning and afternoon hours
Monday. Forecast highs still look to be in the mid-70s to
lower-80s out ahead of the cold front, though precipitation may
be possible along this feature. LREF guidance suggests most
locations in the CWA have a 75% chance or better for CAPE
(instability) to be present, which may indicate the chance for
convective showers or thunderstorms. However, the same guidance
suggests this instability to be fairly marginal, as the entire
forecast region has less than a 50% chance to experience greater
and 100 J/kg of CAPE. As such, light precipitation seems to be
the most likely outcome, with some locally stronger showers
possible. Low temperatures on Monday look to be in the mid-30s
to lower-40s, a little cooler than Sunday.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

Troughing looks to be overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, promoting
cooler conditions. High temperatures are forecast in the low to
upper-50s, and upper-50s to lower-60s Tuesday and Wednesday
respectively. Additionally, an approximately stationary surface
low is favored across portions of Western Colorado and Eastern
Utah. A stationary front extending eastward from this low would
create a convergence zone across much of Kansas, allowing
precipitation to be possible through Wednesday night. Current
ensemble guidance indicates that this activity is unlikely to be
convective, as the LREF gives about a 20% chance or less for
greater than 50 J/kg of CAPE to be present both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Rather, most of this precipitation seems to be driven
by frontal convergence. While forecast guidance does suggest
small chances for showers and thunderstorms, light rain seems
more likely from this setup. Most of this precipitation is
expected to fall as rain, though a mix of rain and snow remains
possible across portions of Eastern Colorado Tuesday night where
temperatures could drop into the lower-30s.

***Thursday/Friday***

Again, models are a little more divergent by Thursday morning,
though GEFS and EC ensemble guidance indicates that troughing is
favored to be moving off to the east as a split flow redevelops
across the Western United States. Conditions look to trend
warmer from this pattern, with forecast highs in the low to
mid-70s Thursday, and upper-70s to lower-80s Friday.
Precipitation looks a lot less likely during this period, though
an incoming low could produce light precipitation in some
higher end scenarios.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals. Light (5-10 knot) E to SE winds will become variable
early Saturday morning, then shift to the WSW or W during the
late morning to early afternoon, remaining light.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ090>092.
NE...Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent