848
FXUS63 KGLD 171708
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1108 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for storms and severe storms today, mainly
  favoring the Tri-State border area.

- Low chances for severe storms Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast today, with a brief warm
  up Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current observations have a few lingering showers in the area from
storms earlier in the evening. With the outflows in the area, it
wouldn`t be unreasonable for a few more isolated to scattered
showers/storms to develop through the remainder of the night. They
would likely be sub-severe and short lived if they did develop.
Mostly cloudy skies and light winds are forecast to continue through
the remainder of the night, with temperatures in the 60s and low 70s.

Today, we are forecast to warm up a bit as the upper ridge to the
west of the area is forecast to amplify, while winds near the
surface shift to out of the south as a surface low develops north of
the area. This should push temperatures into the upper 80s and low
90s for most of the area, especially with mostly sunny skies
forecast. Winds will likely strengthen to around 15 mph with a few
gusts to 25-30 mph.

This afternoon and evening, a few storms are possible as an upper
trough digs into the Northern Plains and an area of surface
convergence develops along the leading edge of the low to the
northwest of the area. The issue is that the better forcing should
be north of the area, suggesting a few isolated to scattered storms
should they develop at all in the area. If they formed, they would
likely form in Eastern Colorado around 2-5pm MT and try and push
east. The Tri-State border area and those to the east have the best
chance of seeing storms late in the day. Should the storms form,
there may be enough instability and shear for large hail to form.
With freezing levels still forecast to be around 15000-17000ft, most
of the hail would probably be half dollar sized or less. But if a
supercell forms, be alert for large hail around 2-3" including into
the early overnight hours. A wind gust or two around 60 mph may also
occur, but the lack of coverage is forecast to limit the wind
threat. The tornado threat and flooding threat would also be very
low. Overall chance of storms developing is about 25%. Once any
storms clear, partly cloudy skies are forecast for the rest of the
night. Temperatures will likely stay in the 60s and 70s still with
southerly winds remaining around 10 mph.

Tuesday, the upper pattern isn`t forecast to shift that much, but
the upper low sliding more to the east is forecast to help push the
surface low and a cold front into the area at some point during the
day. For now, the forecast is that the front and low will push
through during the afternoon hours and either clear the area to the
south, or stall around Highway 40. The colder air is forecast to
also lag behind, which will allow most of the area to warm into the
90s. If the low and front take the slower track, those closer to
Central Kansas could reach the low 100s. Winds should shift through
the day from out of the south, to out of the north.

Shower and storms chances Tuesday will likely depend on two
separate factors. The storms that may form during the afternoon
and early evening hours will depend on how close the low and
front stay in or near the area. If they do remain nearby, then
the resulting convergence zone could spark showers and storms
over the area. Drier air is forecast to creep in from the west,
limiting how strong these storms would likely be. But it
wouldn`t be unreasonable for one of these storms to produce hail
around an inch in size. The higher chance for storms is a
cluster/batch that would come from the Nebraska Panhandle and/or
Northeastern Colorado. These storms are forecast to cluster and
produce strong wind gusts as these push east. The question is
how long will they survive and will they push too far north of
the area. If not, a few gusts in the 60-70 mph range seem
feasible at this time. Once the storms pass, the winds are
forecast to lighten to around 5-10 mph. This along with clearing
skies are forecast to have low temperatures in the upper 50s
and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Northwesterly flow is favored overhead at 500-mb Wednesday morning
according to GEFS and EC ensembles. A shortwave trough embedded in
the northwesterly flow is forecast to move through the area
throughout the day. GEFS and EC members are in support of a surface
low at the leading edge of this shortwave already past the forecast
area by morning, which would favor a northerly component to the
surface winds. High temperatures are favored to be cooler than
Tuesday, in the low to mid 80s. In addition, thunderstorms are
possible Wednesday ahead of a secondary cold front. NBM 24 hr
precipitation guidance shows the best chances for greater than
0.1 inches of rain across Eastern Colorado and Southwestern
Nebraska, with some areas at a 50-60% chance. These
thunderstorms would be supported by a modest 40-50 kt jet streak
at 500-mb, particularly across northern portions of the
forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of this solution,
showing a two in three chance that sfc-500mb wind shear will
exceed 30 kts for areas along and north of I-70, and as high as
an 80-90% chance across Northeast Colorado and Southwest
Nebraska. As such, severe thunderstorms, particularly across
this zone where wind shear would be highest, are possible. The
favored mode for these storms are currently clusters and/or line
segments, as supported by vertical wind shear parallel to the
incoming cold front alongside recent RRFS data showing a cluster
and/or line segment coming through the area during the
evening/overnight hours. The primary hazard with these storms
would be strong winds, with a secondary hazard of large hail.
Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest north of I-70,
around 10%.

Northwesterly flow is forecast to persist into Thursday, as ridging
continues to build off to the west. While surface winds may still be
out of the northeast during the day, they are forecast to mainly
stay below 20 mph. This would allow sufficient warming to take place
Thursday afternoon as long as clouds clear out. Otherwise,
temperatures would be able to remain cooler Thursday. Forecast highs
are in the mid to upper 80s, though could reach into the 90s if
sufficient heating can take place. Showers may develop during the
evening hours, though NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance suggests less
than a 20% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across nearly
the entire forecast area. LREF guidance continues to show a two in
three chance that vertical wind shear will be above 30 kts along and
north of I-70 Thursday, which may allow some storms to become
severe. However, given the anticipated low coverage of storms
Thursday, confidence in severe weather occurring is 5% or less.

The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by warmer
temperatures as ridging from the west moves in overhead. Highs
Friday through Sunday are forecast in the 90s. Conditions are also
forecast to be drier, as NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues
to show a 20% chance or less for greater than 0.1 inches of rain
across the forecast area. Additionally, relative humidities (RH) may
drop a little bit with the increase in temperatures, but are not
forecast to drop below 20%. We may see RH values drop further into
the teens if southwesterly surface flow can develop across the area.
This would be possible given the persisting northwesterly upper-
level flow to the north and east of the forecast region, which would
allow surface lows to track across this area. Even so, fire weather
conditions are not expected, as wind gusts are forecast to remain
below 25 mph all three days. However, if RH values can drop into the
teens and a few thundershowers could develop, there would be a risk
for dry lightning to start fires.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and occasional high clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024