532
FXUS63 KGLD 141716
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances continue through the weekend. Severe weather is
  possible each day, with Saturday having the highest chance.
  Damaging wind gusts, flooding, and large hail are the main
  concerns.

- More seasonable temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current observations show showers and storms across the eastern
portion of the area, with additional storms trying to form along the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado. The showers and storms over the
east are driven by a lingering MCV and may keep precipitation over
the area through the remainder of the night. The severe potential
has waned with most of the area saturated and the forcing mechanisms
now mainly east of the area. With the lingering cloud cover and
precipitation, temperatures are unlikely to cool below 60, and may
even warm back into the 70s.

Today, there is not much of a difference in the pattern with the
upper ridge still to the east and the upper trough to the west,
keeping us in southwest flow aloft. With the pattern similar and
intermittent cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to be fairly
similar to yesterday with highs in the 80s closer to the Tri-State
border, and 90s further to the southeast. That being said, the
surface low pulling a bit further east should inhibit southeastern
parts of the area from reaching the upper 90s. Winds should be
fairly light from the east again around 5-10 mph.

This evening, we have a chance for a repeat with the surface low
trying to deepen a bit near the area and another shortwave moving
through the upper northwest flow. This should again lead to two
batches of storms, one from the higher terrain to the west and one
from the south along the surface low convergence and outflows from
storms much further south. The western batch has the higher
confidence in occurring again, likely moving into Eastern Colorado
around 6pm MT. The southern batch would likely be later around 8pm
MT / 9pm CT if it makes it. The southern batch may be inhibited if
storms form ahead of the main batch and interfere with the outflow
pushing north into the area. The southern batch may also struggle to
pull into the area if the low center is further east and does not
deepen as much over the area. Otherwise, this should result in a
repeat of yesterday with the two batches of storms combining over
the area and pushing through to the northeast. Severe weather would
be possible, mainly in the form of wind gusts up to 65 mph. Any
storm could produce the strong wind gusts, but organized
lines/clusters would be more likely. Large hail will be possible,
but the later start and high chance of storms being clustered by the
time they reach the area will keep our hail chances pretty small.
The other main threat would be flooding. Currently, guidance favors
the main cluster combo moving just a little west of where it moved
today. If it moves over the same area as yesterday, roughly
inbetween Highway 25 and Highway 83, the chances for flooding will
increase as adding 2-3" in these areas that already saw 1-2.5" of
rain yesterday would likely cause at least nuisance flooding. The
main threats and storms would likely leave the area shortly after
midnight central time. Similar to early this morning, lingering
outflows or an MCV could allow showers and storms to persist through
the night, likely sub-severe.

Saturday, there is minimal change forecast short of the upper ridge
trying to move back further to the west and into the area. For now,
the difference is minimal with temperatures maxing out again in the
80s and 90s and light winds a bit more from the north.

This will be shocking, but storms are possible during the late
afternoon and evening, in two batches. The western batch, driven by
another wave in the upper southwest flow, will be the more likely
batch that forms west of the area and pushes in. The main difference
is that the effective shear may be higher, which would increase the
initial hail threat. If the 0-6km shear does reach 35+ kts and an
isolated storm forms, it wouldn`t be unreasonable for hail up to two
inches in diameter. Otherwise, storms would likely cluster again and
inhibit the hail threat as the cluster pushes east. A secondary
batch either forming over the area or pushing in from the south is
possible depending on how the low sets up. Ensemble guidance is
fairly split on where the low center sets up in the Plains on
Saturday, leading to a range of solutions from no additional storms,
to a strong cluster that then merges with the western cluster. The
wind threat is forecast to again be the main star, with wind gusts
potentially reaching 75 mph. Flooding will also be a big concern
again, especially if Friday pans out and we get another 1-3" of rain
in the area. Timing is currently forecast to have storms push in
from the west around 4-6pm MT and exit the area shortly after
midnight central time. Keep an eye out for changes though as we see
if/how the batch tied to the surface low modifies things.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Sunday morning, ridging is favored at 500-mb just to the west of the
forecast area, with its axis running from the Pacific Northwest
through the South-Central Plains. This feature would be supporting a
surface high pressure across the Northern Plains. At the same time,
a broad surface low is forecast to be positioned across the Four-
Corners Region and portions of West Texas. The surface high to the
north and surface low across the Desert Southwest would support
southerly winds meeting northeasterly to easterly winds in Kansas
Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible under this weather pattern. NBM
24 hr precipitation guidance suggests a 25% chance or better for
greater than 0.1 inches of rain across most of the forecast area,
with the best chances across East-Central Colorado and West-Central
Kansas (60-80%). Thunderstorms are not yet expected to be severe, as
LREF guidance shows less than a 30% chance across the entire area
that sfc-500mb wind shear will exceed 30 kts. However, GFS and EC
model soundings show wind shear at or nearing 30 kts. If this is the
case, some thunderstorms may be allowed to become marginally severe.
Confidence in severe weather occurring Sunday is around 5%, though
would increase if wind shear can continue to improve. Regarding
temperatures, highs are forecast a bit cooler in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, as northeasterly to easterly winds would tend to dominate
over the southerly winds from the south.

A strengthening upper level low in Central Canada looks to enhance a
500-mb jet streak across the Northern Plains Monday. This would
allow the surface high pressure to migrate into the Midwest, and
support southerly winds across the forecast area, helping the broad
low to the south. Forecast highs are still in the low to mid 80s, as
the southerly winds look to be relatively weak, and some cloud cover
may still be in place from Sunday`s thunderstorms. Showers remain
possible Monday, but are less likely than Sunday as convergence
reduces across the region. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance is in
support of this solution, with most areas at less than a 30% chance
to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain (the exception being West-
Central Kansas in the 30-40% range). Confidence in severe weather
occurring is less than 5%, as LREF guidance continues to show less
than a 20% chance for greater than 30 kts of wind shear across
nearly the entire forecast area.

Deterministic GFS and EC model guidance begins to diverge by
Tuesday, specifically regarding a trough off the United States West
Coast moving inland. Looking at GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles,
the ridge from the Pacific Northwest to the South-Central Plains
is forecast to remain in place, but flatten out a bit, as the
trough off the West Coast remains off shore through the end of
the period. However, these ensembles show high amounts of
spread in 500-mb heights under and to the east of the trough to
the west, which would suggest the trough is still capable of
moving inland between Tuesday and the end of the forecast
period. About 50-60% of LREF members are in support of the ridge
remaining in place and the trough remaining off the west coast.
If ridging is allowed to remain in place and just to the west
of the forecast area, similar conditions to Sunday and Monday
may remain, with cooler temperatures favored. However, if the
trough is allowed to move inland, temperatures may reach back
into the 90s, and possibly even the lower 100s along the US-283
Corridor. Additionally, relative humidities would have an
opportunity to drop into the 20s based on LREF 25th percentiles.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently forecast for this afternoon. There
is a 10-15% chance that some storms could develop along a
boundary near KGLD, confidence is too low in development and any
potential impacts to the terminal to include in the TAF at this
time. Similar to last night showers and storms are forecast to
move across the area bringing heavy rain and strong to possibly
damaging winds. There is some discrepancy on timing this evening
which is the reason for the broad PROB30 for each terminal.
Should either of these clusters move across a terminal then
visibility to 1 mile or even less would occur. Currently
thinking is that rainfall will end through the early morning
hours resulting in patchy fog and some IFR ceilings, but have
been noticing that rain may develop again around 11z, so will
need to monitor that for upcoming TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg