773
FXUS63 KGLD 300847
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A bit cooler today with nearly persistent chances for showers
  and storms. Storms should generally be sub-severe.

- The beginning of the week is forecast to be drier, and a bit
  warmer with highs closer to 80.

- Chance for another cold front later in the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Current observations show a broad area of surface low pressure
across much of the area, with generally weak winds around 10 mph or
less. Higher up, a messy pattern is show on satellite water vapor
imagery, suggesting a mix of pseudo-zonal flow with shortwaves
moving through. This setup, along with ample moisture through 500
mb, is why we are continuing to have showers and storms through the
early morning hours. With most of the instability used up, weak
flow, and stable mid-level lapse rates, strong storms are not
expected. There could still be an isolated instance of flooding, but
the aforementioned conditions are keeping rainfall rates low.

For the daytime hours, the upper flow is forecast to become a bit
more northwesterly with the trough that moved into the Great Lakes
region digging a bit further south and east. With this, the center
of the low pressure should gradually shift east and then south. This
should allow for continued showers and storms during the morning
hours on the wrap around side of the low, aided by some potential
upper disturbances moving through. If the surface low progresses far
enough east, some drier air should be able to push in and allow for
some clearing of the skies during the afternoon hours. That being
said, it is unlikely that enough dry air moves in and inhibits any
storm development. So we are expecting more storms during the late
afternoon and evening hours from either the Palmer Divide and/or
Western Nebraska. Storms could also fire up along the convergence
zone with the low if it remains in the eastern half of the area. The
good news is that even if the sun comes out, it is unlikely that the
area would recover enough instability for severe storms. The higher
forecasts of MUCAPE are around 1500 J/KG with mid-level lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km, keeping the hail chances very low. Severe wind
gusts also look to be unlikely with DCAPE less than 1000 J/KG and a
messy storm mode. That being said, a wet microburst could still
occur and give a wind gust around 60-65 mph.

With the mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures should be lower in
the 60s and 70s for most of the day. Winds should shift from out of
the south, to out of the north at 10-15 mph.

During the overnight hours, showers and storms should slowly come to
an end as upper ridging tries to move into the area and the low
pressure system gets pushed south and east from the area. Western
portions of the area could see skies clear with lows dropping to
around 50. Meanwhile, eastern portions of the area may keep enough
low level moisture for fog to develop, with lows closer to 60.
Especially with winds forecast to lighten  and either be calm or
from the north at 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Sunday and into the start of the new work week ridging is forecast
to ensue across the western CONUS resulting in longwave troughing
for the rest of the CONUS; however for the forecast area the ridge
may be amplified just enough that the any rain chances will remain
east of the CWA. As this occurs however temperatures do warm back up
a little but only appear to be in the lower to mid 80s for highs.

Mid to the later portion of the week; very good consensus with
ensembles of a strong cold front pushing through the area. Main
deterministic guidance varies on the positioning, but as this
appears to be of Arctic origin these cold fronts normally end up
setting up further to the west. With this in mind would not be
surprised to see high and low temperatures end up in the lower
echelon of the forecast envelope with highs in the low 60s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Guidance has trended a bit
wetter with the front but timing again will be key and also how
much precipitation falls this week. 12Z ECMWF ensemble guidance
suggests with the members that brings the cold front through
further to the west and actually has it the coldest has the
front moving through between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday
which if soil moisture responds correctly then blowing dust may
be a concern. However guidance at this time is not picking up
on any strong 850mb or 700mb jets with this front so even that
lowers my confidence in any blowing dust concerns currently.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Scattered passing showers are expected through most of the TAF
period, but confidence in the duration of these showers is not
high enough to include -SHRA as prevailing for any given time
period. Winds will shift to the north behind a front around 12z
which could also mark the arrival of MVFR ceilings. Conditions
should improve to VFR by 18z, when afternoon showers could
mature into a few thunderstorms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Grantham