974
FXUS63 KGLD 070714
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit heat returns today, but there`s a gradual cool-
  down through Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms return over the next
  couple days. Winds are the primary threat, but may lead to
  blowing dust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The next couple of days will be dominated by a 500 mb high over
Texas that flattens out and covers most of the southern CONUS, and a
low over the northwestern CONUS, creating southwesterly flow over
the CWA. The high looks to be more in control at this level,
limiting the organized severe weather potential. Down at 850 mb, a
high near the Great Lakes will extend an inverted ridge southward as
a low slowly moves over the northern Rockies. These features will
promote hot temperatures and put a stationary front over the CWA
today, leading to late afternoon and evening convection. Tomorrow
looks to be a repeat, but the front will have been able to move
southeast about 100 miles.

Today, the 850 mb low looks to be moving over the Dakotas, leading
to a southwesterly LLJ over central Kansas. The aforementioned front
looks to setup stretching from Parks, NE to Flagler, CO. Areas
southeast of the front will have south-southwesterly winds gusting
around 25-40 kts throughout the day, promoting down-slope warming,
pushing temperatures into the upper 90s and low 100s. There is a 40%
chance locations along and east of KS 23 will see heat indices of
105+. Locations to the northwest of and under the front will still
warm into the 90s, but winds will be much weaker.

With the warm and breezy conditions, there is a threat of blowing
dust today starting in the late morning. Most likely, we will see
air quality reduced from high-lofted blowing dust and a roughly 15%
chance of seeing a plume or two reducing visibility under 1 mile.
Visibility reducing blowing dust is more likely before 21Z. As we
get later into the afternoon, the mixing height gets rapidly deeper,
meaning the dust will have an easier time to be lofted far away from
the surface. This is only the synoptic threat for blowing dust,
there is also the threat of convectively driven blowing dust, which
will be discussed below.

We have two initiation triggers for convection this afternoon and
evening. The first will be the stationary boundary mentioned
earlier. This could fire off storms as early as 20Z, with winds up
to 65 MPH being the primary threat. If winds this strong are able to
form, blowing dust would occur, potentially a short-lived haboob
with 1/4 mile visibility. Additionally, with storms firing off a
stationary boundary, with very steep lapse rates, and fairly slow
movements, there will be a chance for landspouts to form from these
storms.

The second trigger is from a weak 500 mb shortwave trough in eastern
Colorado. This would fire off storms in eastern Colorado and push
them northeast along or to the northwest of the stationary front.
Winds up to 75 MPH would possible if they can organize into a MCS.
This would also increase the blowing dust threat. There is slightly
better shear, so there will be a threat for 1 inch hail. This would
likely fire off around 0Z. Severe impacts look to drop below 5% by
6Z, but lingering storms are possible until mid-morning Tuesday.
Overnight lows look to cool into the 60s to low 70s, much as
previous nights have been.

With most of these storms moving over the same area this afternoon
and into the overnight hours, there is a 2-5% chance locations along
where the boundary sets up will see localized flooding. Even with
training storms, the convection must overcome very dry low-level and
a parched ground to produce flooding.

Early Tuesday morning and into the midday, the front will reposition
itself in the southeastern CWA, closer to Norton, KS to Tribune, KS.
Much like Monday, temperatures will be warmer to the southeast,
likely in the upper 90s, and cooler to the northwest, upper 80s to
mid 90s. Precise positioning of the front is still up in the air,
but strong to severe convection potential returns along and to the
northwest of the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. While winds
over 50 MPH from storms may produce blowing dust, synoptic winds
look to remain under 25 kts, so blowing dust during the day is
unlikely. Start time for convection along the boundary looks to be
around 20-22Z and last until around 3-6Z.

There is a second area of severe convection concern Tuesday evening
coming from eastern Colorado. Once again, a 500 mb shortwave trough
is the forcing for this potential, entering the CWA around 3Z. The
NAMNest has this storm around the I-70 to U.S. 40 area, but the RAP
has it in southwestern Kansas. However, all hazards would be
possible with this storm, if it does form. We`ll need to keep a
close eye on what the environment does after the stronger convection
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thursday morning, a ridge looks to be overhead at 500-mb, with a
surface high to the east. At the same time, ensemble guidance is
consistent with a surface low across South-Central Canada and
portions of the Northern United States. This would favor southerly
surface flow across the forecast region. Forecast temperatures are
currently in the mid to upper 80s across the forecast region. NBM
guidance does suggest a 20% chance or greater across a large portion
of the forecast area that high temperatures will reach back into the
90s, with a near 50% chance across localized portions of the Tri-
State Area. However, in order for this to occur, winds and solar
heating would need to increase. LREF guidance suggests that there is
around a 50-60% chance that cloud cover will remain below 20%
coverage, with the NBM suggesting an 80-90% chance for the same. In
addition, the surface high to the east and surface low to the north
both look to be in favorable positions relative to the upper level
flow for intensification, which could enhance the southerly flow
across the forecast area. If these conditions can be met, hot
conditions may redevelop across the area Thursday.

By Friday, upper level troughing looks to be pushing into the United
States from the northwest. Winds are forecast to be out of the north
to northwest as the leading edge of a high protrudes into the
Central High Plains during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the
low to mid 90s despite the favored northerly component to the
surface flow, as NBM guidance shows a 50% chance or higher that
winds will remain below 10 mph, particularly across Northwest
Kansas. Guidance is also in favor of low cloud cover, which would
allow solar heating to override the effects of the northerly surface
flow. The biggest point to note is that relative humidities are
forecast to drop into the lower 20s and possibly high teens across
portions of Eastern Colorado. This could indicate the possibility
for localized fire weather conditions, especially across Yuma County
in Colorado where NBM guidance suggests up to a 2 in 3 chance that
winds will reach or exceed 25 mph (one of the thresholds for fire
weather). This will be a trend to keep an eye on as we approach the
upcoming weekend.

Troughing is forecast to continue approaching the forecast area
going into Saturday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s and lower
90s on Saturday ahead of the trough. Lee cyclogenesis is possible at
the leading edge of the trough as it crosses the Colorado Rockies,
which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms seem unlikely,
as LREF guidance suggests that storms will only have a few hundred
J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) to take
advantage of. All areas have a 30% chance or less of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from these storms based on
24 hr precipitation guidance from the NBM.

Temperatures are expected to fall once the trough passes over the
forecast area, though the timing is very uncertain at this time. The
trough may pass through as early as Sunday, which is reflected in
the forecast highs of the upper 70s and mid 80s. However, as
long as the trough remains west of the forecast area, similar
conditions to Saturday could be expected. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday as well, though chances
are not much better than that of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period for
KMCK and KGLD, although some storms tomorrow evening may briefly
impact the area. Overnight, winds will favor an eastern
component, but may be somewhat variable, especially for KMCK.
There is also a 25% chance KMCK has some LLWS around sunrise,
however it`s more likely that the wind shear will be too diffuse
to meet LLWS criteria. Either way, winds from the southwest may
gust around 30 kts around 400-800 feet AGL. Around sunrise, the
winds are expected to start mixing down to the surface again,
allowing gusts in the 25-35, potentially 40 kts range throughout
the day. Storms may begin impacting the sites around 1Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA