126
FXUS63 KGLD 172213
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
413 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered storm chances through mid week. A
  few severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and early
  evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today and tomorrow,
  then near to slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A broad upper ridge stretching from the Four Corners to Texas
will move little today and tomorrow. It will consolidate over
the Four Corners Wednesday and Thursday and begin to amplify.
The central plains will remain on the periphery of the ridge
with a zonal flow tending to become more northwesterly as the
ridge amplifies later in the period. Embedded disturbances will
result in at least some chances for showers and thunderstorms
each day. Additional storms may move off the higher terrain to
the west.

For today, latest CAMs are not showing much convection in the
area. An isolated storm or two may develop along the lee trough
in northeast Colorado this afternoon, but fade by sunset. Most
of the activity will be well to the north in Nebraska and the
Dakotas tonight.

On Tuesday, a weak surface trough or front will move through in
the morning with winds shifting to the north. It will have
minimal impacts on temperatures, but may be the focus for
isolated convection in southern parts of the area in the
afternoon where it will stall out. The environment will be
moderately unstable with 2000-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30-40 kts
of deep layer shear. While overall forcing is rather weak and
coverage on the low side, any thunderstorm that develops in this
environment will have the potential of producing large hail and
damaging winds. Appears to be somewhat better chances tomorrow
night for scattered storms moving across the area out of
Colorado. There is some weak isentropic lift/low level warm air
advection after 06z which may keep the storms going through the
overnight. CAMs have varying solutions on how strong the storms
will be, with a fairly weak low level jet at less than 20 kts
but lingering MUCAPE of around 1500 j/kg. While an isolated
marginally severe storm cannot be completely ruled out tomorrow
night, the overall severe threat appears to be low.

As noted above, Wednesday and Thursday will be more of a
northwest flow regime, with a weak to moderately unstable
environment each afternoon along with around 40 kts of deep
layer shear. Forcing somewhat nebulous once again, but in
addition to any embedded wave in the northwest flow, appears to
be a surface boundary in the area on Wednesday which could be a
focus for initiation. CAMs show an isolated storm or two after
about 22z which may pose a large hail and damaging wind threat
given the environmental parameters. Additional storms may move
in from Colorado Wednesday evening, mainly south of Interstate
70. On Thursday, CAMs suggesting storms may be more isolated
with the strengthening ridge. Mean storm motions also become
more northerly which may take Front Range convection more
southward rather then eastward across the plains. Environmental
parameters remain favorable for severe storms should they
develop, but confidence is low at this time.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and
Tuesday, followed by a slight cool down on Wednesday with highs
in the mid 80s, before returning to near normal on Thursday with
highs around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles support a 500-mb high moving in
overhead beginning Friday morning, and remaining through the end of
the forecast period. Southerly flow near the surface is favored
underneath the ridge. The exception to this would be if shortwave
troughs coming over the Rockies could develop a surface low over or
just to the south of the forecast region, favoring northerly surface
flow. Otherwise, hot conditions supported by the southerly flow and
solar heating are expected for the full duration of the long term
period, with highs forecast in the 90s Friday through Monday.

Dry conditions are also forecast in the long term due to the higher
temperatures. Relative humidities (RH) look to be in the low to mid
20s across portions of East-Central Colorado Friday through Monday.
It is possible that RH values could drop even further into the teens
across portions of the forecast region, with some areas showing as
high as a 40% chance of doing so between Friday and Sunday according
to LREF guidance. The broadest area covered by these elevated
probabilities is on Sunday along and south of I-70, where nearly all
areas have a 1 in 3 chance or higher of RH values dropping into the
teens. These lower RH values would be most probable if a shortwave
trough could traverse areas north and east of the forecast area
along the leading edge of the upper-level high. This could support
southwesterly to westerly flow developing across the forecast area,
and thus, promote even higher temperatures and drier conditions with
RH in the teens. Even so, fire weather is not expected during this
period, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph in areas
of the lowest RH values.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the long term period,
however NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 25% chance or less
across the forecast region that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will
be experienced from Friday to Sunday. These probabilities increase a
little bit across Eastern Colorado Monday, where there is up to a
45% chance. If storms are able to develop, the most likely area
where they would become severe is across Red Willow County in
Nebraska, and Decatur, Norton, and Graham Counties in Kansas. LREF
guidance is suggestive of a 40% chance or higher across this zone
through the long term period that sfc-500mb wind shear would
exceed 30 kts. Even so, uncertainty regarding whether storms
would form in addition to their coverage leaves confidence in
severe storms occurring less than 5% Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 412 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and occasional high clouds. A wind shift
will occur mid to late Tuesday morning at both terminals, with
north to northeast winds gusting up to 20 kts through the rest
of Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024