445
FXUS63 KGLD 081840
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1240 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms again this evening with a low
  probability, less than 20%, of wind gusts up to 65 mph.

- A marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday night with areas
  of 1-3" possible in northwest Kansas.

- Above normal temperatures today, cooling to near normal on
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Current observations have the area in southwest flow aloft as we are
between broad ridging to the southeast and broad troughing to the
northwest. Near the surface, we have the low pressure system over
most of the area with the front roughly around a line from Sharon
Springs, KS to Norton, KS. For areas north of the front, winds are
from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts around 20-25 mph. Highs are
forecast to warm into the upper 80s and low 90s with any lingering
showers fading by the early afternoon. Those south of the front have
winds roughly from the south/southwest at 15 gust 25-30 mph. Their
high temperatures should still reach the upper 90s and maybe even
lower 100s.

As we get into the afternoon and evening hours, storms should fire
up along the frontal boundary around 2-5pm MT, 3-6pm CT. With the
frontal boundary likely to have moved farther south from its current
position, there is a chance that the area avoids this first round of
storms. Otherwise, everyone south of the aforementioned current
placement of the front would likely see storms during the afternoon.
These initial storms would be unlikely to be sub-severe, with MUCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg and 20-30 kts of 0-6km shear. As we go into
the evening, the storm motion may carry storms north into the area.
There is also the chance that additional storms move in from the
west as storms develop along the Front Range while an upper trough
axis swings through the region. Should these storms cluster and move
far enough east, they should push through after about 8pm MT from
west to east. On top of posing a small severe threat with better
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 30-40 kts, this
could also lead to a flooding threat if the cluster combines with
storms that formed along the front. In regards to the severe threat,
currently thinking hail around an inch in diameter and 65 mph wind
gusts are the likely hazards. This cluster/grouping of storms would
then likely impact areas around and south of I-70 through most of
the evening and early overnight hours. The exception is if the front
pulls to far south and causes everything to miss the area.
Currently, there is about a 65% chance we see this cluster move
through the area. Temperatures tonight will likely hove in the 60s
and 70s with the showers and storms in the area.

Tomorrow, the upper pattern is forecast to go more zonal as the
troughing becomes broad to the north and the ridge is broad over the
south. With the surface low and front likely well south of the area,
a slightly colder air mass should be in place over the area and keep
temperatures more in the 80s. A few 90s are possible south of
Highway 40. Winds should be from the north at 10-15 mph with gusts
around 20-25 mph. Storm chances are much lower and limited to south
of Highway 40 with much of the forcing south of the area. There may
be some storms that move in from the west as well if an upper trough
axis doesn`t swing too far south. Should a storm move into the area,
it will likely be sub-severe like the prior few days. May see a
marginal severe storm with a wind gust around 60 mph.

Thursday, the upper flow is forecast to be zonal again with
conditions mostly similar to Wednesday. The main difference will be
a developing low pressure in the Northern High Plains will shift
winds to out of the south at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Otherwise, temperatures should again warm into the 80s. Shower and
storm chances are currently forecast to be less than 15% with no
clear forcing mechanism over or near the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Starting Friday, elongated zonal flow over Northern CONUS with
a possibility of two low pressure systems moving over the U.S.
and Canadian border over the weekend and early next week. This
will allow possible chances for afternoon showers from embedded
shortwave troughs and cooler temperatures as cold fronts could
pass by. On Friday night and into Saturday morning, there is
high confidence (75%) that showers will be north of I-70.
However, there is low to medium confidence (25-40%) that this
will be severe as the environment conditions will be unfavorable
as wind shear will be disorganized and weak. The main potential
hazard will be small hail as there is sufficient CAPE over 1000
J/kg and a high lapse rate.

Over the weekend, there is low confidence (25%) for chances of
severe weather due to the lack of forcing. Saturday night,
chances for storms will be relatively low, but will increase at
midnight near US 283. The main potential conditions of
interest are heavy rain and small hail. Precipitable water
(PWats) is forecast to be in 1.55 inches, CAPE above 1200 J/kg,
and a "low" melting layer below 16,000 feet. On Sunday, storms
are possible again in the evening hours with chances ranging
from 20 to 60%. For now, the better chances favor the northern
half of the area.

On Monday and Tuesday, the chances for storms continue as a
potential upper trough slices through the Northern U.S. While
there is variability on when the trough moves through the area,
storms are possible each day in the evening. Which ever day the
trough moves through will likely have a chance for severe
weather.

Temperatures will be fairly consistent Friday with highs in the
mid 90s and then drop into the low 80s Saturday as the overnight
cold front comes through. There is medium to high confidence
(50-70%) that afternoon temperatures will stay in the 80s for
the remainder of the period as there is a large spread of 10F
degrees within the guidance that could put temperatures in the
upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures will finally start to fall
from the summer heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Winds should remain roughly from the north when storms
aren`t around. Sustained speeds should be around 15 kts with
gusts to 25 kts until about 01-04Z, then speeds will likely
lower to around 5-10 kts. Keep an eye out for storms as early as
00Z. Storm chances favor south of both sites, but storms will be
possible through 12Z, especially at KGLD. If a storm makes it,
be alert for wind gusts above 40 mph and frequent lightning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...KAK