234
FXUS63 KGLD 301855
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1255 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Severe weather threat continues with afternoon and evening
  storms today and Monday. 50-70 MPH winds are the main hazards,
  but 1-2 inch hail is also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A 500 mb high over Missouri will work to keep us under southwesterly
flow for the next couple of days. Down at 850 mb, the high is over
the Carolinas, but still expands its influence through most of
Kansas. This will allow us to have some weak low-level troughs move
in from the north-northwest, spurring some convection, potentially
severe. It will also keep the low level flow fairly chaotic,
preventing any strong, persistent surface level winds for most of
the CWA.

The weaker flow will allow the sun to efficiently warm the surface,
as long as it`s unimpeded. However, we are expecting some mid and
upper level clouds to ride along the edge of the 500 mb high, likely
covering the northwestern half of the CWA both today and tomorrow.
Today`s highs look to warm into the low 90s where there are
persistent clouds. There is also a 10% chance these clouds could
produce some light showers around sunrise this morning. Where the
clouds are thin or non-existent, temperatures will likely warm into
upper 90s to triple digits. Most likely areas to hit 100 degrees
today will be along and southwest of a line from Norton to Tribune,
KS. There is also a 15% chance some organized southwesterly flow at
the surface is able to form, generally under 20 kts, but this could
push the temperatures closer to 105.

Convection this afternoon and evening looks to fire off in eastern
Colorado and move northeast into the CWA around 21-0Z. Any severe
threat looks to be coming to an end around 6Z, but storms may linger
until closer to 9-12Z. Wind looks to be the primary threat with
these storm as inverted-V soundings are seen across the area. Gusts
in the 40-60 kts range are the most likely threat, but we cannot
ruled out gusts closer to 70 kts. Mid-level instabilty lowers the
potential for a hail threat, however hodographs are nothing but an
inflow notch. This may support splitting and left mover supercells,
bringing the hail threat back into the picture. Without good
instability to loft hail, max hail size would likely be under 1.5
inches, if any does form. There is also a low (5-10%) chance that
these storms may train, leading to a flash flooding risk. However, a
large, dry layer under the storms keeps this threat pretty low.
These risks cover the bulk majority of the CWA, but areas near the
Tri-State border have the best chance at seeing stronger convection.

Overnight, temperatures look to largely cool into the 60s, save for
locations east of U.S. 83. This area may remain in the 70s from a
combination of southerly flow and clouds cover. Once again, there
may be some near-sunrise showers along and north of U.S. 36.

Monday should be a couple of degrees cooler, thanks largely to
additional cloud cover. Effectively, the entire CWA looks to see
temperatures 2-4 degrees cooler than Sunday. Not a big cool down,
but it`s something.

Monday`s convection may begin to move into the southwestern CWA
around as early as 21-23Z after firing off in eastern Colorado,
similar to Sunday`s. If this happens, it`s possible the storms will
be on the weaker side, maybe able to produce some 65 MPH gusts.
However, if storms move into the CWA closer to the 0-4Z timeframe,
the front driving all of this convection would likely push farther
east, just past the Colorado border, and fire off a broken line of
convection. This has the potential to be more severe as the shear
profile will be better suited for hail around 1-2+ inches, and a
very low (<2%) chance of a brief tornado. The severe threat for this
option would last until around 9Z with lingering storms persisting
until sunrise. In either case, storms will be once again moving
towards the northeast. Overnight temperatures Monday night look to
mimic Sunday night`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, not much change in the upper pattern is
forecast with the upper ridge over the Southeastern United States
with an upper trough over the Northwest United States. This is
forecast to keep the air mass roughly the same each day and allow
for highs in the 90s and low 100s. The warmer temperatures favor
areas that are closer to Central Kansas. Winds should remain around
5-15 mph and vary in direction each day as broad low pressure is
expected to linger over much of the Plains. With the upper level
southwest flow and upstream trough, mid to high level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming into the area and bring in high level
cloud cover. A few shortwaves should also move through and help
spark storm development west of the area. With the low levels
forecast to be a bit on the dry side, storms will likely struggle to
make it to the area in the absence of outflows or a low level jet.
Still, each day will give the area a chance for storms and maybe
even some severe weather.

Going into the weekend, confidence has increased a bit more on the
ridge amplifying over the Plains. This is keeping the pattern
roughly the same and conditions somewhat similar. Temperatures may
be able to warm into the 100s for most of the area if the ridge axis
shifts over the area. Otherwise, we should keep the light winds and
daily chances for storms.

There is still a 25% though that the upper trough pushes east over
the weekend instead. In this case, Friday/Saturday would be hot and
have better chances for storms as the trough pushes a more pronounce
system through the area. The rest of the weekend would then probably
be cooler with highs maybe in the 80s. Storm chances would also
probably be a bit lower on Sunday as well.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast over the area
with clouds generally above 10000ft. Winds near the surface
should remain around 5-8kts and generally be from the northwest.
However, with a surface low pressure system over the area, the
winds will likely vary in direction at times. Storms are
possible between 00-12Z, but more likely around 05-09Z. If they
move through, be alert for wind gusts in the 40-60 kts range and
maybe hail around an inch or two.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK