813
FXUS63 KGLD 121846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect again today for counties along
  and south of a Wallace to Graham county line. Heat index
  values and air temperatures could reach 105-110 if the front
  doesn`t move through early.

- Severe storms are possible today with damaging winds to 70 mph
  and perhaps an isolated instance or two of large hail.

- Strong to severe storms are again forecast Thursday with
  damaging winds up to 75 mph possible, blowing dust may be
  possible as well during the evening limiting visibility to a
  mile or less. Heavy rainfall may continue through the night
  leading to nuisance flooding concerns.


- Storm chances continue through the weekend.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A surface low is over the area leading to a decent coverage of
showers and weak storms this morning across the area due to the
additional forcing. Drier mid level air is forecast to
gradually push in from the south during the day which should
help limit or fully eliminate coverage and should let the sun
return. As this occurs temperatures will rapidly increase. May
not be as warm as first though but heat indices around 105
degrees will still be a concern across the Heat Advisory area.
Decatur and Norton are a little iffy on how warm it will get but
will leave the advisory in place for now. An 850mb jet is
forecast to develop during the afternoon leading to breezy winds
around 15-20 mph sustained mainly south of I-70. This may lead
to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions should we warm up into the 100s across that area.

This afternoon, a west to east surface convergence boundary is
forecast to develop across NW Kansas and could be the source for
isolated to widely scattered storm development with it.
Confidence is increase that at least a storm or two will form
along this boundary as it is on the nose of an increasing 850mb
jet. A low end severe storm could be possible along with the
potential of a landspout or two especially if the boundary
remains stationary or very slow moving.

Our main severe threat looks to be this evening across eastern
Colorado and across far NW Kansas and far SW Nebraska. With the low
pressure system forecast to remain a little further north than
previously expected, this may help keep our severe threat confined
to Yuma and western Dundy counties. Wind up to 70 mph would be the
main threat but if an updraft could remain strong enough then a
window for some large hail up to ping pong ball size. A blowing dust
threat may also develop as well especially if an outflow can
get shot out of the storms and winds could remain strong to
damaging. Main concern for this would be from around 6pm-9pm MT
but chances of this scenario are less than 20%. Overnight
additional redevelopment of showers and storms is expected along
the lingering 850mb jet and a new developing 700mb jet but
severe weather looks to be unlikely with this activity. If
shower and storm coverage is able to wane Thursday morning then
some stratus or patchy fog across the area would be possible.

Thursday, our surface low is forecast to move slowly to the east
and should be out of the area enough to keep the majority if
not all of the area out the triple digit heat. Based on current
guidance think the far east would be the only area that could
be affected by the triple digits. For high temperatures will
keep high temperatures forecast on the higher side of guidance
with temperatures in the low 80s across Yuma to the upper 90s
across the far east. If the low were to shunt further east then
temperatures would come down further and especially if the
morning cloud cover lingers longer than currently forecast.

During the afternoon and evening, with the low to our east, this
does open the door for some better rainfall potential with a
southwest to northeast moving shortwave. A lingering cold front
across the area should help further initiate convection during
the evening hours. Damaging winds up to 75 mph looks to be the
main hazard for the day, but am a little concerned about the
blowing dust threat as the activity moves to the north as mixing
heights are forecast to be significantly lower around 4000-6000
feet AGL than the previous few days as it won`t be as hot.
Something that could limit the dust threat however is slower
storm motions and the later arrival of the convection is it may
not arrive to the area until after 01Z which may be enough to
let lapse rates become a bit less unstable. Rainfall may be able
to continue to keep going through the evening and possibly
overnight as well as mid level vorticity continues to move
through the area. With the slow storm motion and the potential
for redevelopment through out the night an isolated instance or
two of flooding may be a concern. It appears the one thing
keeping the area from a better hydro concern is that the CAPE
overnight wanes so have doubts on if rainfall rates would be
enough to support the flooding especially given how dry it has
been as of late.

Friday, appears to be a fairly reminiscent day to Thursday as
the low pressure systems moves slightly further to the east.
High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s currently appears to be
a lot more likely as well. Have we deserved this cool down.
Showers and weak storms may be lingering through the morning
hours but should end by early afternoon. Another chance for
showers and storms exists Friday evening and overnight. The
favored area currently appears to be across eastern Colorado
where a stronger 700mb vorticity max looks to be located. During
the evening an increasing 700mb jet is forecast to develop
which should be able to help generate other convection further
east into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Not overly excited for the
severe weather potential with this activity due meager CAPE but
think some wind gusts of 60 mph may be possible. Additional
flooding may also be possible with very high PWATS around 1.8 in
place but looks to be dependent on what occurs Wednesday and
Thursday, so will be something to keep an eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The long term period starting on Friday morning looks to begin with
southwesterly flow over the forecast area at 500-mb, with ridging
just to the east and troughing across the Western United States.
Several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow may
impact the forecast area during this time. Ensemble guidance is in
good agreement that this pattern is going to last until Sunday
morning when ridging builds over the forecast area. However, an
upper level trough/low looks to remain across Northern Mexico and
the Four-Corners Region for the remainder of the long term period. A
surface low in association with this feature would allow southerly
flow to continue across the Southern Plains, but meet easterly flow
across Kansas, forming a convergence zone.

Overall, the long term period is favored to consist of moist
conditions. On Friday and Saturday, shortwave troughs embedded in
the upper level southwesterly flow would allow several surface lows
to track over the forecast area. Thunderstorms would be favored to
form under this pattern. This is supported by NBM 24 hr guidance,
which shows over a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation across nearly the entire forecast region both days,
and as high as a 70-90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado
and Dundy County in Southwest Nebraska Friday. Storms are not
currently expected to be severe during this period, as LREF guidance
suggests less than a 20% chance of seeing sfc-500mb shear greater
than 30 kts across most of the forecast area. However, it should be
noted that GFS model soundings show an inverted-V profile up to
about 3 km, associated with surface dewpoints around 50. This could
support microburst potential, where winds could locally reach around
60-70 mph with thunderstorms. However, this is not the favored
scenario, as LREF guidance suggests a 60% chance or better that dew
points will reach above 60 F across the forecast area. As such,
confidence in severe weather occurring Friday or Saturday is less
than 5% at this time. High temperatures are currently forecast in
the 80s and lower 90s both Friday and Saturday.

As ridging builds in overhead Sunday and troughing develops across
the Four-Corners Region, conditions may start to dry out, as
forecast relative humidities (RH) drop from the 50s and 60s on
Sunday to the 30s and 40s on Tuesday. This would be driven by a low
to the southwest of the forecast area injecting hot, dry air into
the incoming southerly flow. Conditions look to remain moist enough
for thunderstorm activity to continue Sunday through Tuesday, but it
is a point to keep in mind that drier conditions may be coming
toward the middle of next week. As for thunderstorm activity during
this period, it would be driven by southerly flow meeting easterly
flow in Kansas, creating convergence in this zone. Again, LREF
guidance is in support of thunderstorms remaining non-severe,
showing less than a 20% chance for wind shear greater than 30
kts across most of the forecast region all three days. If hotter
and drier conditions can indeed develop, microburst potential
may become more of a concern. However, at this range, there is
not enough confidence to say that microbursts are likely. This
will be another development to watch as we go into next week.
High temperatures are forecast in the 80s Sunday and Monday, and
then the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the afternoon for each
terminal. Winds are forecast to become breezy this afternoon
around 15-20 knots sustained. Convection is forecast to develop
across eastern Colorado and send out a boundary which will shift
winds to the west. There is a 10-20% chance an isolated storms
may develop near GLD. A slightly better potential for storms for
MCK so have included a PROB30 for this. Overnight a cold front
is forecast to move through and shift winds to the northeast.
With the front stratus is forecast to develop with at least IFR
conditions looking likely. Some fog may be possible but with
winds remaining around 10-15 kts that should help limit how low
visibilities fall. Stratus is forecast to linger through at
least the end of this TAF period .

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ003-004-014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg