105
FXUS63 KGLD 130751
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1251 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the remainder of the work week.

- Well above normal temperatures in the 70s to 80s through the
  rest of the work week. Near record to record highs possible.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1228 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Ridging across the western CONUS continues whereas at the surface a
low pressure system is moving across southeast Colorado/southwest
Kansas. The will continue to keep the majority of the winds across
the area to the southwest leading to temperatures in the 40s
overnight. As the low continue to trek to the east winds will
then turn to the northwest along with help from a broad surface
trough across northwestern portions of the CWA. Much lighter
winds remain forecast for the day around 5-10 mph. Our warm
temperatures however continue with highs in the low 70s across
the east to the mid/upper 70s across the west as the
northwesterly wind component helps promote some downslope
warming leading to near record to record highs across portions
of the area.

Troughing retrogrades a bit to the north through Thursday
evening and overnight into Friday morning allowing winds again
to turn to the southwest leading to another night of
temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Cirrus does appear to be
as thick as it is currently which may lead to some slightly
cooler temperatures than tonight in the mid/upper 30s to low
40s. Some moisture advection does look to occur during the
evening hours mainly along and east of Highway 83 where dew
points are forecast to rise into the low to mid 40s helping keep
those temperatures up as well. May need to keep an eye on some
patchy fog potential for those counties as dew point depressions
lessen but the overall higher potential for fog remains well
east of the forecast area.

Friday is forecast to be even warmer with highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s across the entire area with more near record to record highs
in jeopardy. Winds are forecast to remain light as well from the
southwest around 10mph. A weak cold front is then forecast to move
through during the late evening hours shifting winds again to the
northwest. A slight uptick in winds to around 10-15 mph may be
possible through Saturday morning as the 850mb jet increases due to
the front but with no clear cut mixing source do think it will be
tough for stronger winds to mix to the surface until the nocturnal
inversion breaks mid morning Saturday. As this happen breezy
winds gusting around 25-30 mph is forecast before waning through
the afternoon. Cooler but still above normal temperatures in
the mid 60s to low 70s remain in store for Saturday under partly
cloudy skies as some upper level moisture begins to move in
from a clipper system across the northern Plains. Winds Saturday
night may also become a bit breezy as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to the clipper system to the northeast and
developing trough to the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

The long-term will start off with a 500mb ridge over the southern
CONUS, extending over the CWA. A low will be moving over the western
CONUS, slowly pushing to the east, forcing the high out of our area.
Sunday, we will see the ridge axis move over the CWA, keeping us
clear for most of the day, but an 850 mb high will descend from the
Northern Plains. This will wrap in cooler air, keeping temperatures
capped in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will move in overnight,
keeping lows above freezing.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, the aforementioned low
pressure system will begin impacting the CWA. There is a 20-40%
chance of showers Monday morning with the cold front passage. The
northern CWA will have a better chance at seeing precipitation. The
main limiting factor for precipitation will be moisture. The GFS is
the most bullish with moisture content, while the ECMWF and CMC-NH
show far less moisture in the column. Looking at the LREF, about 2/3
of the members show less than 0.1 inch near Yuma, CO, decreasing to
the south-southeast. If precipitation occurs, the northwestern CWA
will receive the most and there`s a <5% chance it`ll fall as snow in
the northwestern CWA.

Low temperatures behind the cold front look to generally remain
around freezing for the rest of the long-term. Highs will are
currently forecast to bounce around the 50s for the rest of the long-
term, but some 40s will be possible. The low-level moisture may
remain over the CWA Monday evening into Wednesday. This would lead
to more stratus and potentially fog. If the moisture remains, lows
will likely remain in the mid 30s with highs starting near 50 and
cooling into the low 40s. There would also be a low chance of patchy
freezing fog.

Wednesday into Thursday, another one or two lows are expected to
impact the area. There is considerable uncertainty with the midweek
system, but additional precipitation and gusty northwesterly winds
could occur with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 944 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF
period. Some LLWS is occurring ahead of a surface trough that
will shift winds to the northwest. These northwest winds are
forecast to continue through the day Thursday before backing to
the southwest again. An increase in mid to upper level cirrus
will occur overnight and lingering through the morning hours
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1228 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Nov 13-14. Record highs and current forecast highs
for the aforementioned dates are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

----------------------
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13
----------------------
Goodland:    80 in 2007... current forecast 76
Burlington:  79 in 2007... current forecast 76
Hill City:   83 in 1999... current forecast 71
McCook:      82 in 1999... current forecast 73

----------------------
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14
----------------------

Goodland: 75 in 1990... current forecast 80
Burlington: 78 in 2007...current forecast 77
Hill City: 83 in 1999... current forecast 81
McCook: 78 in 1990... current forecast 79

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
CLIMATE...Trigg