218
FXUS63 KGLD 040254
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
754 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds gradually diminishing this afternoon.

- Chance for rain Wednesday night south of U.S. 40.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1019 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

The low that has been creating inclement conditions over the past
couple of days is slowly exiting the region, to the east. A brief
upper-level ridge is building in from the west, replacing the low.
This will usher in more mild conditions for the the majority of the
midweek.

As the low is exiting today, it will still be close enough to create
breezy conditions. Throughout the midday, gusts around 25-35 kts are
still expected across the CWA, but as we get into the late
afternoon, the stronger wind gusts will become less common. Around
sunset, as the inversion sets up, winds will finally weaken under 15
kts.

Due to morning and early afternoon clouds, temperatures today will
only top out in the low 50s. Overnight, as the winds weaken and the
sky clears out, temperatures will fall to around and below freezing
for the entire area. Wind chills Wednesday morning are forecast to
be in the 20s, with areas near the Tri-State border cooling into the
low 20s for wind chills.

Wednesday, the ridge mentioned above will allow mild conditions to
persist throughout most of the day. Highs will warm into the mid to
upper 50s under sunny skies! In the afternoon and evening hours, a
500 mb low will be crossing over the southern Rockies, allowing an
850 mb lee low to form. The path of this low is forecast to remain
well south of the CWA, but areas along and south of U.S. 40, mainly
Greeley and Wichita counties, may get scraped by some showers or
weak storms after 0Z Thursday. Overnight lows will once again cool
into the low to mid 30s across the area. All precipitation is
forecast to be rain.

Thursday, as the 850 mb low exits to the east-southeast,
northwesterly flow will return, with gusts around 20-25 kts
possible. This will work to keep temperatures from getting too nice,
capping out in the 50s. Overnight, widespread freezing temperatures
are forecast to return, after all it is November.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

A quieter pattern is likely to dominate the County Warning Area
(CWA) this weekend into early next week. Upper-level flow starts off
from the northwest Friday as a mini-ridge slides across the high
plains. Ensemble guidance shows this ridge moving quickly to the
east and weaken quite a bit heading into Saturday. Simultaneously, a
mini-trough is anticipated to propagate across the CWA through
Saturday, becoming more positively tilted as it makes its way east.
This should usher in zonal flow transitioning back to northwesterly
as another ridge starts to influence the area on Sunday. This second
building ridge likely will be quite a bit larger than the first;
therefore, will be expected to influence the Tri-State area for a
longer period of time. Meridional flow should accompany this system
as the ridge axis passes over our region then southwest flow likely
follows thereafter. Thus, dry conditions are likely to persist
through early next week.

Descending to the surface, guidance projects high
pressure to form late this week and last through early next week.
There is medium confidence on a cold front passing through Friday as
well as a low chance for a front late Monday as well. These should
both be dry passages as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) remain
at or below 5% through Monday. Dewpoints are forecast to be quite
dry, ranging in the 30s and 40s throughout the long-term forecast
period. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated to dominate the forecast
period, outside of some cloud coverage with the frontal passage
Friday as well as overnight into Saturday morning.


High temperatures across the CWA should stay seasonably cool (mid to
upper 50s) through the weekend until Monday where it warms into the
mid 60s. Forecasted low temperatures will be something to keep an
eye on this week as freezing to near freezing overnight temps are
likely throughout the CWA this weekend and into Monday morning.
Friday morning should be the coldest as lows around 28-32 degrees
are possible. Fire weather should not be a big concern this weekend
and through Monday despite Relative Humidity (RH) values forecasted
as low as 25-30% for eastern Colorado and 35-50% for the rest of the
Tri-State area. Model guidance shows winds being fairly weak through
Monday with 5-20 mph expected throughout the CWA. Gusts up to 30 mph
are possible in windier locations of eastern Colorado on Saturday
but other than that, 15-20 mph gusts should be expected everywhere
else.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 754 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at both KGLD and
KMCK. The only concern is for wind shear in the near term, which VAD
wind profiles at Goodland show has developed over the past hour or
two. This is not expected to persist past 07Z, as model soundings
suggest calming winds by then. Wind shear has been added for both
KMCK and KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...Davis