753
FXUS63 KGLD 120158
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
758 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Best chance for severe weather looks to be on Wednesday. Large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and flooding look to be the main
  threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

14Z Water vapory imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA on the
northeast periphery of large 594 dm H5 ridge centered just east of
the Four Corners area, with stronger flow aloft displaced to the
north across the Dakotas into the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, fairly weak flow apparent at the surface somewhat obscuring
details with main frontal zone near the NE/SD border extending to
the southeast into IA.

This afternoon and evening...Strong surface heating, combined with
persistent 0-2km convergence across southern zones and in portions
of northeast Colorado will bring at least some risk for a few
thunderstorms popping up in these areas, although well mixed nature
of atmosphere makes available instability in these areas very
limited. While more unstable area looks to be capped, could see
potential for dry microbursts as DCAPE more than double the
available CAPE for much of the area. Low probability for widespread
meaningful precipitation in this set up, actually think that there
is a better chance to see gusty winds than measurable rain in most
locations and will keep PoP`s on the low side. Potential for evening
storms will roll off the higher terrain and into NW KS and SW NE.
Expect this to be disorganized and similar in character to the
afternoon threat with gusty winds being the most likely threat. Cold
front will begin to sag south into the area overnight, but with dry
airmass in place ahead of it and not much forcing behind it do not
anticipate much of an impact through the morning hours.

Wednesday-Wednesday Night...Aforementioned cold front will bisect
the area during the morning hours and how far south it advances will
play a large role on not only temperatures but the thunderstorm
impacts as well. Generally prefer the more southerly solutions that
line up well with 12Z GEFS mean which would usher in slightly cooler
temperatures and likely limit thunderstorm potential to the
evening/overnight hours as easterly flow provides instability axis
for complex of storms to move into from the higher terrain. The less
favored, more northerly position, would shift potential evening
precipitation area further north into NE, bring another day of
potentially dangerous heat and allow for a few high based/potential
dry microburst producing storms near sfc front. In light of favoring
the more southerly solutions, think primary weather hazard will be
strong outflow winds with MCS as it moves into the area as
environment is very favorable for strong cold pools but not sure
instability supports a significant hail threat overnight Wednesday.

Thursday-Thursday Night...H5 ridge will have shifted to the
southeast with flow aloft becoming southwesterly and axis of ridge
centered to the east of the region.  With flow aloft more favorable
for stronger shortwave impulses, allowing for better afternoon and
evening thunderstorm chances than the past week. Speed shear
profiles somewhat marginal for organized severe weather, but with
decent directional change in the winds any slight increase in the
wind fields would produce a more favorable environment for more
organized convection. Overall a similar pattern is expected with
somewhat moist, easterly flow allowing for thunderstorms to develop
near the higher terrain and organize into an MCS as it approaches
Tri-State area. Chances for precipitation increase across the whole
area, but highest chances will remain along and west of KS/CO
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The long term period starting on Friday morning looks to begin with
southwesterly flow over the forecast area at 500-mb, with ridging
just to the east and troughing across the Western United States.
Several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow may
impact the forecast area during this time. Ensemble guidance is in
good agreement that this pattern is going to last until Sunday
morning when ridging builds over the forecast area. However, an
upper level trough/low looks to remain across Northern Mexico and
the Four-Corners Region for the remainder of the long term period. A
surface low in association with this feature would allow southerly
flow to continue across the Southern Plains, but meet easterly flow
across Kansas, forming a convergence zone.

Overall, the long term period is favored to consist of moist
conditions. On Friday and Saturday, shortwave troughs embedded in
the upper level southwesterly flow would allow several surface lows
to track over the forecast area. Thunderstorms would be favored to
form under this pattern. This is supported by NBM 24 hr guidance,
which shows over a 40% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation across nearly the entire forecast region both days,
and as high as a 70-90% chance across portions of Eastern Colorado
and Dundy County in Southwest Nebraska Friday. Storms are not
currently expected to be severe during this period, as LREF guidance
suggests less than a 20% chance of seeing sfc-500mb shear greater
than 30 kts across most of the forecast area. However, it should be
noted that GFS model soundings show an inverted-V profile up to
about 3 km, associated with surface dewpoints around 50. This could
support microburst potential, where winds could locally reach around
60-70 mph with thunderstorms. However, this is not the favored
scenario, as LREF guidance suggests a 60% chance or better that dew
points will reach above 60 F across the forecast area. As such,
confidence in severe weather occurring Friday or Saturday is less
than 5% at this time. High temperatures are currently forecast in
the 80s and lower 90s both Friday and Saturday.

As ridging builds in overhead Sunday and troughing develops across
the Four-Corners Region, conditions may start to dry out, as
forecast relative humidities (RH) drop from the 50s and 60s on
Sunday to the 30s and 40s on Tuesday. This would be driven by a low
to the southwest of the forecast area injecting hot, dry air into
the incoming southerly flow. Conditions look to remain moist enough
for thunderstorm activity to continue Sunday through Tuesday, but it
is a point to keep in mind that drier conditions may be coming
toward the middle of next week. As for thunderstorm activity during
this period, it would be driven by southerly flow meeting easterly
flow in Kansas, creating convergence in this zone. Again, LREF
guidance is in support of thunderstorms remaining non-severe,
showing less than a 20% chance for wind shear greater than 30
kts across most of the forecast region all three days. If hotter
and drier conditions can indeed develop, microburst potential
may become more of a concern. However, at this range, there is
not enough confidence to say that microbursts are likely. This
will be another development to watch as we go into next week.
High temperatures are forecast in the 80s Sunday and Monday, and
then the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through most of the
period before a cold front slowly advances shifting winds to the
ENE after 12Z. A few thunderstorms remain possible, especially
near the start of the period. Storms could bring a brief period
of strong and erratic winds with very high cloud bases.
Coverage will be on the low side with chances of storms
impacting either TAF site being 10 percent or less.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...JRM