213
FXUS63 KGLD 042052
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- A few flurries possible Friday afternoon in Colorado, and
  sprinkles and flurries possible in the entire area Saturday
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A strong upper ridge off the west coast of the CONUS will
meander through the weekend, with downstream northwest flow over
the central CONUS. Embedded weak waves in the flow will produce
little, if any, in the way of measurable precipitation chances,
but may result in afternoon flurries and/or sprinkles. One such
wave on Friday will bring a chance for flurries to northeast
Colorado in the afternoon. While TQ indices are better across
southern Wyoming and northern Colorado, they do reach minimal
cold pool thresholds in northern Yuma county, where CAMs are
showing some very light QPF (trace to .01"). Wet bulb zero
heights are solidly in the snow category, but with afternoon
temperatures in the lower 40s any snow reaching the ground will
be melting on contact. Impacts will be limited to just some
minor visibility restrictions in flurries. Otherwise, the rest
of the area will see some increasing clouds in the afternoon
with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. A somewhat
similar setup occurs on Saturday afternoon with another
shortwave moving through. TQ indices increase but wet bulb zero
heights are more in the mixed category of rain or snow. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s, so may lean
more towards sprinkles as opposed to flurries for Saturday. In
addition, northwest winds will increase in western areas as the
upper trough axis passes, with the light precipitation/virga
potentially helping to mix stronger wind gusts to the surface.
Mixed layer winds are in the 40-45kt range west of highway 25
including all of northeast Colorado, which is where the best
potential for the higher gusts will be in the afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with a shallow cold air
mass settling into areas east of Highway 25, potentially as far
west as the Colorado/Kansas border though confidence is low on
western extent. Temperatures on the cold side of the front may
only reach the middle 30s with light easterly winds, while
further east in Colorado with a westerly wind temperatures may
reach the upper 40s. TQ indices still favorable for some
possible afternoon flurries/sprinkles, but models not showing
anything at this time. The shallow cold air is forecast to erode
and lift out Sunday night with southwest winds at the surface.
Low temperatures will range from the middle teens east of
Highway 83 which will be in the colder air the longest to the
lower 20s in Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

The overall pattern does not change much in the long term
period, with a general northwest flow over the central CONUS
over the west coast ridge. The series of weak embedded
shortwaves continues, with a weak looking wave on Monday and a
stronger one on Tuesday. The operational GFS does show some
light snow and stronger winds Tuesday night, but has little to
no support from any of the ensembles at this time, so will take
a wait and see approach. More shortwave energy comes through
Wednesday and Thursday, and all of the ensemble averages, GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian, showing some light snow potential, mainly
for areas north of Interstate 70. Amounts, however, are very
light at less than a half inch at this time. GFS continues to
suggest some wind potential as well, but less so from the other
models.

As for temperatures, there will be a warm up on Monday and
Tuesday with westerly winds, highs in the 50s both days,
possibly around 60 on Tuesday. Then cooling off again for
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

IFR ceilings will persist an hour or so into this afternoon at
both KGLD and KMCK before clearing. The remainder of the TAF
period will be VFR with diminishing surface winds after sunset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024