Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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346 FXUS63 KGLD 040829 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 129 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Freezing fog, perhaps localized dense freezing fog, is forecastalong and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line this morning. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may be slick from the fog, and any other precipitation that froze overnight. - Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday. - Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of the area otherwise dry through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025 A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in 700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily across western portions of the area, with the potential for localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area. Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon hours making it a slow warm up for most. As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20 mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have nudged temperatures up some. I wasn`t as aggressive as I normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds move in again for the evening and overnight hours. Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25 mph. Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM has the low a little further north which would increase the magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for this portion of the forecast. Models agree rather well with the weather pattern through Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to almost ten degrees above normal. Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High Plains Saturday. There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma County that day. However, despite the minor upper level short wave trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast area. In addition soundings show a rather large dew point depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL. Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday. Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes, do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the troughs through the forecast area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1009 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025 Light snow continues across the GLD terminal and is forecast to continue through around 09Z; also can`t rule out periods of freezing drizzle so remain aware for some light icing. Also watching for some fog potential for GLD as well but the threat should lessen around 09-10Z as winds turn more southwesterly. There is a 10% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2SM but if it does remain aware for freezing fog. MCK is forecast to remain in stratus dropping to IFR through the early morning hours before improving Thursday morning. Did have a report earlier of some light freezing drizzle west of MCK but current thinking is that this threat has ended as we lose forcing. Breezy winds gusting 20-25 knots are forecast through the day Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...JTL AVIATION...Trigg