346
FXUS63 KGLD 040829
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
129 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing fog, perhaps localized dense freezing fog, is
  forecastalong and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line this
  morning. Elevated surfaces and sidewalks may be slick from the
  fog, and any other precipitation that froze overnight.


- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- Very low chances for snow Saturday across northern portions of
  the area otherwise dry through Wednesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

A period of subtle moisture advection coupled with an increase in
700mb dry air led to periods of freezing drizzle across the area
during the early morning hours. We have just enough dry air
advection in the 850-800mb layer that a subtle warm nose has formed
leading to the freezing precipitation. 03Z RAP suggests any low
level omega should end around 08Z thusly ending any
precipitation potential. 285 and 290K isentropic analysis also
suggests subsidence to be on the increase as well during this
time. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also forecast primarily
across western portions of the area, with the potential for
localized dense fog as well. Any dense fog looks to be kept
along and west of a Dundy to Greeley county line. Any fog
potential looks to end around 12-14Z as winds become more
southwesterly as a surface trough moves across the area.
Stratus however is forecast to linger through the late afternoon
hours making it a slow warm up for most.

As the trough continues to move through the area and clouds
clear breezy winds are forecast to ensue sustained around 15-20
mph is forecast with gusts of 25-30 mph. Winds are forecast to
be in the "furnace" wind direction which climatologically
supports temperatures in the upper forecast echelon so have
nudged temperatures up some. I wasn`t as aggressive as I
normally would be given the new snowfall potentially mitigating
how warm we can get. Sunny skies are then forecast to ensue for
the afternoon before some scattered to broken mid level clouds
move in again for the evening and overnight hours.

Friday, surface troughing continues across the area. An increase
in in 700-500mb moisture occurs as well. RAP cross sections show
modest omega around 10-12 microbars in this layer as well but
with dry air in the low levels virga is most likely to occur
although some sprinkles or flurries may mix in. The NAM however
has a deeper and moist profile but the forcing is I did nudge
temperatures down a few degrees as well as most GEFS ensemble
members keeps colder 850mb temperatures further west than
deterministic guidance does. High temperatures for the day
remain forecast in the low to mid 50s across the area. Breezy
winds may also develop as well with the trough gusting to 25
mph.

Saturday, gusty to strong winds are forecast to develop as yet
another clipper system moves across the northern Plains and a
surface low developing across northwestern portions of the forecast
area. 850mb winds are forecast to intensify as the low deepens with
sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. The NAM
has the low a little further north which would increase the
magnitude of the winds whereas the GFS has is more over the area
and broad which would lessen the winds some. Current forecast
is tailored more towards the ECMWF which is a combo of the two
with a bit of a more northern track but a broad low. Will also
need to watch for some spotty rain or snow showers as well as
some sporadic 700mb frontogenesis through the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwest upper level flow will dominate the weather pattern for
this portion of the forecast.  Models agree rather well with the
weather pattern through Wednesday.  Temperatures will be near to
almost ten degrees above normal.

Models have an upper level short wave trough moving through the High
Plains Saturday.  There may be some low chances for snow in Yuma
County that day.  However, despite the minor upper level short wave
trough moving through, am doubtful this will become reality due to
the majority of the snow chances being well north of the forecast
area.  In addition soundings show a rather large dew point
depression below the cloud base of roughly 15k ft AGL.

Aside from this short wave trough passage, there will be frequent
minor upper level trough passages through the northwest flow over
the Plains; the more notable ones will be on Monday and Wednesday.
Soundings show rather large dew point depressions present on these
days when the short wave troughs move through. Unless this changes,
do not expect there to be much more than clouds accompanying the
troughs through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

Light snow continues across the GLD terminal and is forecast to
continue through around 09Z; also can`t rule out periods of
freezing drizzle so remain aware for some light icing. Also
watching for some fog potential for GLD as well but the threat
should lessen around 09-10Z as winds turn more southwesterly.
There is a 10% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2SM but if
it does remain aware for freezing fog. MCK is forecast to remain
in stratus dropping to IFR through the early morning hours
before improving Thursday morning. Did have a report earlier of
some light freezing drizzle west of MCK but current thinking is
that this threat has ended as we lose forcing. Breezy winds
gusting 20-25 knots are forecast through the day Thursday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Trigg