111
FXUS63 KGLD 040645
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1245 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds will create hazardous travel conditions
  this afternoon, especially for high profile vehicles on west-
  to-east routes, such as I-70, where cross winds will be
  strongest. Localized reductions in visibility associated with
  blowing dust may exacerbate travel difficulties.

- Strong southerly winds could result in rapid and uncontrolled
  fire growth this afternoon, should any fires develop. Outdoor
  burning is not advised.

- Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along and ahead of an
  approaching cold front in northeast Colorado late this
  afternoon and evening. A few severe storms capable of
  producing wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible, mainly
  between ~4-9 pm MDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

No significant change to forecast reasoning/expectations today
and tonight. Refer to Key Messages (above) for a concise
overview of expected hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The area is starting to feel the effects of the troughing
across the western CONUS as 850mb and 700mb jets are starting to
increase. As this occurs winds will gradually start increasing
across the area this afternoon with gusts of 20-35 mph currently
forecast. The windiest conditions are currently forecast across
eastern portions of the forecast area due to the jet being
strongest. The southerly winds are also helping warm the
temperatures as well with many locales in the mid to upper 80s
across the forecast area. Western portions are forecast to see
dewpoints fall as well as downsloping winds become more
prevalent resulting in the potential for some locally critical
fire weather conditions. Winds across this area are however
forecast to be around 20-25 mph helping limit overall fire
weather concerns. Overnight the low level jets associated with
the trough are forecast to continue to increase. Some minor
pressure falls across the area should continue to keep winds
mixed with wind gusts around 30-35 mph continuing throughout the
night. The continued mixing and winds continuing are forecast
to keep overnight lows from falling to much as well as much of
the area is currently not forecast to fall below 55-60 degrees.

Saturday, continues to have the makings of a potential multi
hazard day as the trough continues to get closer to the area.
Confidence is high to very high in wind gusts of 35-45 mph
occurring across most if not all of the forecast area as the
850mb and 700mb jets remain across the area. GFS continues to be
the most aggressive with the strength of the winds with a solid
42-48 knot winds throughout the mixing layer. Other guidance is
in the 35-40 knot range throughout the mixing layer. GFS
typically does do the best in windier scenarios so have tailored
the forecast towards that so the potential is there for 50-55
mph winds and would not be surprised if some isolated 60 mph
wind gusts were to occur.

With the wind, blowing dust will be a concern as well as we
have had multiple warm and breezy days and little rainfall over
the past week. NASASPORT continues to show drying of the 0-10cm
soil moisture falling into the mid teens to low 20s across most
of the area. At this time not anticipating widespread blowing
dust concerns as the winds may not be strong enough to get
numerous plumes of blowing dust going and any that do get going
should rise into the atmosphere given high mixing heights and no
capping level present via the 2- 2.5cm lapse rates. Still can`t
rule out some localized brownout conditions near source regions
but current thinking is that more of a haze will be present.
This haze also may affect air quality as well.

Elevated fire weather will also be a concern as well given the
winds. I did bring down dew points to some of the lower guidance
as forecast soundings show drier air just above the surface
that should be easily mixed down. With this and being on the
warmer side of guidance am still struggling to get humidity
values lower than the upper teens to low 20s. I did take into
consideration the forecasted winds to perhaps equal out not
quite being to the 15% threshold for Red Flag Warnings but fuel
partners stated that with fuels still being so marginal fires
still may not rapidly spread so opted to hold off on any fire
products.

Next part of the day will be a cold front moving towards the
area which is forecast to lead to some showers and storm
potential. The cold front will also lead to a wind shift which
would make the response to any fire more difficult. Showers and
storms with the cold front are forecast to move into eastern
Colorado around 6-7pm MT. Continue to think that damaging winds
up to 65 mph will be the main threat with any storm given the
wind field in place and steep lapse rates. There is potential
however which does have a history of happening that convective
winds sometimes do not materialize given the strong synoptic
winds and winds actually weakening with the storms. Some hail
threat may materialize as well if we can get a long lived,
strong updraft as wind shear will be very strong which would
keep frozen droplets aloft longer especially given a shallow
freezing level around 12,000 feet. However do have concerns that
the strength of the wind shear will shear apart updrafts before
large hail can become a concern given meager MUCAPE of around
500 j/kg. The other aspect of the storms is that if any outflow
can emanate then blowing dust may again be a concern potentially
in the form of haboob. Any severe threat should be ended no
later than 12am MT. Winds will gradually diminish through the
night as we lose influence of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Cold air advection is forecast to continue through the day
Sunday in wake of the cold front. Breezy winds are forecast to
continue as well but not to the extent of Sunday as the 850 and
700mb jets are forecast to weaken as we lose synoptic influence;
wind gusts of 25- 30 mph are still possible however. High
temperatures are currently forecast in the low 70s to low 80s
across the area but may be a little bit cooler if the front
moves through quicker. A quick moving shortwave during the
evening and overnight hours across northern portions of the area
may lead to some showers and storms but severe weather is not
anticipated with that activity. A severe threat across eastern
portions of the area may also develop but will be highly
dependent of the positioning of the cold front.

Through the remainder of the week mainly zonal flow is forecast
to ensue continuing more normal temperatures for October
standards. A few surface highs are also forecast to nudge into
the area Tuesday and Wednesday mornings which may yield some
strong radiational cooling potential which may lead to some
frost concerns. Towards the latter portion of the week starting
to see some signals for a similar pattern to what is ongoing
right now which may lead to another risk for warmer temperatures
and windy conditions towards the latter part of the week and
into the weekend but still remains a bit to far out to nail down
details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

GLD: Aside from the possibility of diffuse haze (6-9SM vis)
assoc/w blowing dust during the afternoon, and a potential for
sub-VFR conditions assoc/w high-based showers and storms during
the evening (~01-05Z Sun).. VFR conditions will otherwise
prevail. Breezy (15-25 knot) south winds.. and LLWS associated
with a 50-55 knot southerly low-level jet at ~1000-1500 ft AGL
(per KGLD velocity data at 0500 UTC).. will prevail through
sunrise. S-SSW winds will increase to 20-30 knots within a few
hours after sunrise, further increasing to 30-40 knots by ~18Z
and persisting through the afternoon. South winds will decrease
to ~20-30 knots after sunset.. further decreasing to 10-20
knots and shifting to the W-NW (or becoming variable) near the
end of the TAF period (~06Z Sunday).

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF
period. Breezy (15-25 knot) south winds.. and LLWS associated
with a 50-55 knot southerly low-level jet at ~1000-1500 ft AGL
(per KGLD velocity data at 0500 UTC).. will prevail through
sunrise. S-SSW winds will increase to 25-30 knots within a few
hours after sunrise, further increasing to 30-40 knots by ~18Z
and persisting through the afternoon. South winds will decrease
to ~25-30 knots after sunset.. further decreasing to 10-20
knots and shifting to the NW (or becoming variable) near the end
of the TAF period (~06Z Sunday).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
forecast to continue through the remainder of the afternoon with
the main concern for locally critical conditions across eastern
Colorado. The wind is forecast to continue through the night
and strengthen at the surface Saturday morning as the nocturnal
inversion breaks around 14-15Z. High confidence in wind gusts of
35-45 mph and sustained winds of 25-35 mph; would also not be
surprised if wind gusts around 55 mph can occur if enough mixing
can be achieved. For the forecast have went a little lower on
dew points as forecast soundings show drier air just above the
surface that should have no problem mixing down. The biggest
issue is that fuels are still marginal and there is some green
in vegetation as well that may help keep dew points a tad bit
further increased. Given the high likelihood of strong winds did
still contemplate fire weather products but per fuel partner
feedback with myself being on the lower end of dew points and
still struggling to get forecasted RH to fall out of the upper
teens to low 20s with the marginal nature of the fuels that it
would still be difficult to justify fire weather products at
this time. Now this may change if additional guidance continues
to come in lower with dew points.

Showers ands storms are forecast to develop along a cold front
which may support some dry lightning potential but confidence
in lighting coverage is a bit lower due to meager amounts of
elevated CAPE in place. These storms may also be capable of
wind gusts up to 65 mph and blowing dust as well which if a fire
were to start would make responding to a fire very difficult.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg