244
FXUS63 KGRB 081707
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1207 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Have allowed the Frost/Freeze headlines to expire at 9 am, as
temperatures have climbed above freezing in all areas.

Our climate focal point determined that a hard freeze occurred
over most of northern WI, and after coordination with surrounding
offices, we have ended the growing season for the following
counties: Vilas, Oneida, Forest, Florence, northern Marinette,
Lincoln, Langlade and northern Oconto.

Additional frost headlines are anticipated for much of central,
northeast and east central WI tonight, but will not be issued
where the growing season has ended in northern WI.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed tonight where
  the growing season continues.

- Cool temperatures through mid-week, then warming to above normal by
  the weekend.

- A dry period expected through Thursday, with small precipitation
  chances Thursday night into Friday, followed by a greater chance
  of rain Sunday through next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Temperatures...High pressure continues to settle into northwest
WI early this morning, resulting in calm winds for central and
northern WI and temperatures as of 4AM in the upper 20s and low
30s. A slight breeze across the east has kept temperatures above
freezing.

Frost/Freeze headlines appear to be on track, and no adjustments
were made. Current end time is 14Z (9AM), with temperatures
expected to rise above freezing by that time. Today will be the
coolest day of the week, with afternoon high temps in the 55-60
degree range--a couple degrees below normal for most spots.

Tonight, once again expecting lows in the middle 20s to middle 40s
(warmest near Lake Michigan). Locations north of Hwy 29 have the
highest chance to get below freezing, with NBM probabilities
ranging from 50-95%. However, no headlines have been issued yet
given the ongoing Frost/Freeze headlines, and the potential that
the growing season is over, and these headlines may end for the
season in any counties with a hard freeze this morning.

Temperatures gradually warm through the rest of the week, with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday into early next week.

Precipitation...High pressure will result in dry weather through
Thursday afternoon. A compact mid-level shortwave and surface cold
front moving across the state will bring a small to medium chance
of light rain Thursday night into Friday. This is followed by
another dry period through the weekend, and then a higher chance
for multiple rounds of rain late Sunday into early next week as
more upper level dynamics and surface features come into play.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Good flying weather with VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF period. SCT-BKN cumulus clouds will persist over far NE WI
until sunset, followed by clear skies overnight. There could be
patchy ground fog late tonight, but given the extreme dryness of
the air mass and an expected increase in boundary layer winds in
NC/C WI, have opted to not include fog at any of the TAF sites.

Winds will be light and variable this afternoon and tonight,
then become southeast to south 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts
on Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch