Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 240326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1026 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Some lingering showers are possible across the far north into the
early evening hours as a shortwave tracks through the Michigan UP.
Otherwise clouds and winds will decrease during the evening hours
with the loss of daytime heating, allowing overnight lows to fall
into the 40s. Clouds will then increase again late tonight as a
low pressure system approaches the region from the west. There
will also be the chance for some showers across the far west
towards daybreak.

There will be a better chance for showers and thunderstorms on
Friday as a warm front lifts north across the western Great Lakes
region. The abundant cloud cover and precipitation will keep
daytime highs limited to the middle 50s to lower 60s across the
region. Rainfall amounts from this event should be rather modest,
only one quarter to one half of an inch. Therefore while the event
will not help flooding concerns it should not exacerbate them very
much. Regarding severe weather concerns, it appears the area will
once again have abundant shear, with bulk shear values of 50 to 60
knots, and not much instability as MUCAPE values are only a modest
500 to 1000 J/kg. Therefore while strong storms are possible
Friday afternoon, these storms are not expected to be severe.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Thunderstorms should be departing the area Friday night as a low
pressure system moves from the Plains to Ontario and a warm front
pushes northeast through the forecast area. There is a marginal
risk of both severe weather and flooding from heavy rainfall with
the storms. Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are in
store for Saturday before a chance for showers and storms returns
to central and east-central Wisconsin Saturday evening in the
vicinity of a frontal boundary. High pressure should help to keep
the area dry on Sunday and Sunday night before showers and
thunderstorms return ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
The low is forecast to pass through northwest Wisconsin, though
timing and exact path vary among the models. The presence of the
low, accompanying frontal boundary and an upstream mid level
trough will keep at least a chance for showers and storms through
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to return for Wednesday
night and Thursday.
&&, and
additional clouds drop in from the north

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Low clouds will continue to settle south into northern Wisconsin
as high clouds stream overhead from the Plains. Expect cloud bases
to lower later in the night as rain approaches from the south.
Anticipate ceilings falling to low-end MVFR or IFR tomorrow as
rain overspreads the area. LLWS will also develop as the next
cyclone begins to approach the area.



SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Skowronski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.