Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 221140
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
640 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

A potent PV anomaly, currently visible on water vapor satellite
imagery over the UP, will continue to dive southeast towards
southern lower Michigan this morning. Doppler Radar shows some
returns over the UP, however there isn`t much over northeast
Wisconsin given the fairly dry air in place in the lowest levels.
Expect this to be the case this morning as the PV anomaly slides
southeast, with only a chance for some light snow or flurries
across the far north early this morning.

Once the system moves away from the region, skies will clear out
and become mostly sunny across the area later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Despite cold air filtering in behind the
system, daytime highs should still rise into the middle 30s across
the north, with highs around 40 across the south given the
abundant sunshine and higher sun angle for this time of year.

Mostly clear skies will continue tonight as high pressure settles
in across the western Great Lakes region. The colder air mass in
place and lack of cloud cover will allow temperatures to plummet
to 10 to 15 degrees across the north tonight, with lows around 20
across east-central Wisconsin.

The high will slide east on Saturday, with continued mostly sunny
skies across the region. On the backside of the high, daytime
highs will recover into the upper 40s to lower 50s during the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

A tranquil weather pattern is expected through the middle of
next week. The only exception is on Sunday into Sunday evening
as a cold front drops southward across the area. The front is
expected to bring a slight chance of rain showers Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening. It is possible the rain may change to snow
before ending. Any precipitation will be on the light side with
less than a tenth of an inch expected. The next chance of rain is
expected Wednesday night into Thursday. It now appears there is a
more potent system just beyond the forecast period that is
discussed in the hydrology section of the discussion. Only minor
changes made to max/min temperatures on a few days during the
period to account for our warm/cold bias sites.

It appears that conditions are favorable for limiting significant
flooding across the north due to night temperatures dropping below
freezing which will slow down the melting process during the night
and early morning hours. No significant precipitation is expected
through the middle of next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Some MVFR conditions and light snow showers are possible
early this morning across the northern airports as a cold front
pushes through the area and an upper-level disturbance slides
across the area. The better upper-level energy is expected to
stay to the north and east, therefore the TAF sites should remain
at VFR. Drier air will push later today as high pressure builds
in, allowing skies to clear across much of the area.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Favorable conditions for a slow snowmelt across the north will
remain in place through the middle of next week. Confidence is
growing for a more potent system late next week that will
bring more rain, and perhaps accumulating snow depending on
the track of the storm across northern Wisconsin. With river
levels running high, the additional rain may bring an increased
risk of flooding again to the region. There may be significant
changes in the forecast track and intensity of the system over
the next several days that may alter precipitation amounts or
types.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......Eckberg



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