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000
FXUS63 KGRB 030910
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
410 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The forecast area will continue to remain under the influence of a
retrograding upper-level high through Sunday. Until the high moves
further west on Sunday, another round of afternoon scattered showers
and thunderstorms is anticipated for today. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue through this forecast period
as well.

Today...Similar to Friday, as the convective temperature is reached
around midday for locations north and west of the Fox Valley,
anticipate towering cu and showers and thunderstorms to develop.
With deep-layer shear of 10 to 15 kts, MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg,
and inverted V soundings, another day of pulse-type thunderstorms
capable of producing hail and gusty winds is expected. Additionally,
PWATs up to 1.30 inches will support the potential for locally heavy
rainfall within the strongest storms. Any shower and thunderstorm
activity will decrease into the evening. As for locations along the
lakeshore and Fox Valley, stable air flowing off of Lake MI will
prevent the convective temperature from being reached, and
therefore, the development of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be about 15 degrees above normal ranging from the
upper 80s to low 90s away from the lake, and middle 70s to low 80s
along the lake. A few spots will near their record highs.

Tonight...Mostly clear skies are anticipated tonight with the
potential for localized fog to develop at locations that receive
rainfall today. Above normal lows are expected as well mainly in the
50s.

Sunday...As the upper-level high slowly retrogrades further west,
mean winds will turn more northeasterly and bring drier air into the
region. This will hinder any shower and thunderstorm activity for
Sunday. Slightly cooler air will also move into the region,
resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s away from the lake, and
70s along the lake.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

An upper level ridge over the western Great Lakes will backslide
into the northern Midwest early next week. As the ridge moves
west, a northerly flow aloft will strengthen over northeast
Wisconsin. As the northerly flow strengthens, a surface-based
cold front will push south into our area and bring a decent chance
of rain for the whole area on Monday. A cool, dry air mass will
follow in behind the front. High temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be significantly cooler than our current
unseasonably warm conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

A stray shower is still possible in north central WI late this
evening. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight into
Saturday morning. Then another round of isolated to scattered
showers and storms is expected over mainly northern WI Saturday
afternoon as daytime instability builds. Best chance to see the
storms will be at RHI/AUW/CWA. Patchy fog will be possible
tonight, mainly where the heavier rains fell across central and
north central WI. But models not showing it impacting the TAFs
sites. Still think with the heavier rain that fell, could get a
little more fog than the models are advertising, but still not
enough confidence to go lower than 3-4SM at this time at RHI, AUW,
and CWA. Winds will remain mainly under 10 kts tonight into
Saturday morning, with a few gusts to 15 kts possible Saturday
afternoon. Locally higher gusts are possible in and near any
storm.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kruk
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......Bersch