Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 290342
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1042 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

A mid level PV anomaly and surface trough will bring scattered
sprinkles and light rain to north-central Wisconsin late this
afternoon into early this evening. Meanwhile, a cold front will
push south across the rest of the region later this evening.
Although there will not be much moisture with this cold front,
winds will turn to a favorable direction for some light lake
effect precipitation across far north-central Wisconsin along with
the Lake Michigan shoreline later tonight. Lows tonight will
range from the middle to upper 20s across the north, with lows in
the middle 30s alone the lakeshore.

High pressure will build into the region behind the cold front on
Thursday. Continued northerly winds will keep temperatures on the
cool side with highs ranging from the lower to middle 30s across
the north, to around 40 across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Some light lake effect precipitation is expected to continue
across far north-central Wisconsin as well as the Lake Michigan
shoreline areas during the morning hours. Any lake effect
precipitation would be on the light side.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around the impacts from a dynamic
system that is expected to impact the region this weekend.  Other
than this system, a less amplified pattern will likely lead to more
in the way of seasonable and drier conditions over the next week.

Thursday night through Friday night...High pressure will be building
into the region Thursday evening.  A slackening pressure gradient
will lead to diminishing of the breezy north/northeast winds across
the region.  Although some clouds will likely stick around into the
evening, particularly over eastern WI, north-central WI may see some
clearing for a time before mid and high clouds return from the west
ahead of weak shortwave energy.  This shortwave is forecast to
produce light snow across central Minnesota into western Wisconsin,
but models show precip drying up as it approaches central WI by late
Thursday night into Friday morning. Clouds will likely linger for
much of Friday over central to east-central WI and wouldn`t be
surprised to see some flurries.  Then clearing skies return for
Friday night along with a strengthening south wind.  No significant
changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...A potent but moisture-starved storm system
will head towards the region on Saturday.  Saturday should start out
sunny and breezy, then will see increasing clouds in the afternoon
and a chance of light rain arrive over north-central WI.  The best
dynamics/moisture will remain to the north, so the most widespread
precip will likely remain north of the U.P. border.  However, it`s
looking like most areas will see scattered light rain to snow
showers spread from northwest to southeast on Saturday night.  Some
snow accumulations could take place over the snow belt of north-
central WI on late Saturday night into Sunday morning when wind
directions turn to the northwest.  Otherwise the most impactful
weather will likely be the gusty winds.  Gusts to 35 mph look
possible on Saturday just ahead of the cold front and up to 45 mph
on Sunday within the cold advection regime.  After a chilly and
windy day on Sunday, a warming trend will then take place through
the middle of next week with mainly dry conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

An expansive deck of low clouds extending into the northern
and central portions of the forecast area will continue to spread
south overnight. Anticipate primarily MVFR conditions, with some
IFR conditions in the far north. Veering winds overnight combined
with the arrival of colder air will result in the possibility of
light lake-effect precipitation in the lee of both Lake Superior
and Lake Michigan.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski



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