Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 260329
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1029 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

The main focus in the short-term portion of the forecast is
potential for rainfall through Thursday afternoon.

Tonight: A low pressure center over northeast Missouri will quickly
lift to eastern Upper Michigan late tonight or early Thursday
morning. Plenty of moisture and strong isentropic upglide will lead
to widespread showers across northeast Wisconsin during this time
period. Lapse rates will increase to near 6C/km late tonight across
central into east-central Wisconsin, which will increase the chances
for thunderstorms overnight. Most locations will see an addition
0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain tonight. Patchy fog will likely linger
across the area as a warm from lifts gradually north toward the area
overnight. Locally dense fog will be possible, especially near the
Lake. Overnight lows will be steady or possibly warming into the 50s
to around 60 across east central while much of the rest of the area
sees lows in the 40s to around 50.

Thursday: After a brief break in the precipitation early in the day,
yet another low pressure system will brush by the area to the
southeast. This will be the focus of the next round of showers and
possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across east-central Wisconsin. An
additional quarter inch of precipitation is possible in those
locations. The rest of the area will see precipitation taper off
into the afternoon. High temperatures are expected to warm into the
60s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

A pattern change is expected over the Memorial Day weekend into
early next week as a 500mb ridge builds across the eastern United
States. Temperatures will start out near normal Friday, then turn
well above normal Sunday into the first half of next week. It
appears that Memorial Day will be very warm with highs in the
middle 80s to around 90 degrees.

For Thursday night, a system passing to the south of the area will
bring a chance of showers to portions of central and northeast
Wisconsin during the evening. Clouds will be on the decrease
during the night with some patchy fog possible across north-
central Wisconsin towards sunrise. Weak high pressure will move
across the region on Friday, bringing partly cloudy skies and
temperatures close to normal.

On Saturday into Sunday, a warm front lifting northward will bring
a chance of thunderstorms to the area. Some of the thunderstorms
could contain locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and some hail.
Very warm and humid conditions are expected Sunday into the first
half of next week. The cold front is expected to move across the
area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. If the ECMWF is correct,
there is some potential for stronger storms and heavy rainfall
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Will wait and see how
this plays out. Temperatures will be well above normal Monday
through Wednesday before returning closer to normal by the end of
the week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1019 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

One batch of heavier rain showers will be exiting far northeast WI
early in the TAF period, as another band lifts north into the
region. This second band is expected to shift into northern WI
toward daybreak, then linger over north central and far northeast
WI through the morning hours before dissipating. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible in the southeast part of the forecast
area overnight and again in the late afternoon/early evening, but
the threat is too uncertain to mention in the TAFs at this time.
IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsbys will continue into Thursday morning.
Expect improved vsbys regionwide by 15z/Thu, with gradually
rising ceiling heights (to MVFR) during the afternoon. It is
possible that ceilings may lower again Thursday evening before
partial clearing occurs with incoming high pressure late Thu ngt
or Friday.

Some LLWS will linger for a few more hours at MTW before waning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement until 6 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch


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