498
FXUS63 KGRB 122043
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
243 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the
  lower 60s possible in central and east central Wisconsin on
  Saturday.

- Below normal precipitation expected over the next week, with
  only minor precipitation events possible Saturday and Monday
  night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Strong west to northwest winds were gusting to 30 to 40 mph
this afternoon. Abundant sunshine and downsloping winds allowed
temperatures to climb into the 40s to lower 50s. The winds
will subside by sunset/early evening, but are not expected to
completely decouple overnight. As a result, have bumped low
temperatures up a few degrees over much of the forecast area.
Mostly clear skies should afford very good conditions for Aurora
viewing tonight.

High pressure will bring dry weather for the rest of the work
week, with abundant sunshine and WAA leading to a gradual warmup.
As the high shifts east Friday and Friday night, developing south
flow will bring much warmer air into the region, with 850 mb
temperatures warming to +13 to +16 C early Saturday morning.
Current forecasts show us falling a bit short of records for
warmest low temperatures Friday night, but these may be very close
in parts of central and east central WI. Potential for record
highs on Saturday is a bit lower, as cloud cover and an earlier
than ideal frontal passage may limit daytime heating. That being
said, if the frontal timing is a few hours later and there are
breaks in the cloud cover, we could get into the middle to upper
60s in east central WI (right near record territory). The cold
front is quite strong, but looks to be moisture-starved, so only a
small chance of light showers or sprinkles is expected over
northern and eastern WI on Saturday. Much cooler and blustery
conditions (gusts to 25 to 30+ mph) return Saturday night into
Sunday, as 850 mb temperatures plummet to -7 to -10 C. Wind
trajectories look too westerly for any significant lake-effect
snow showers in north central WI, though scattered snow showers
will probably impact the WI/MI border area.

A surface ridge will build into the region Sunday night into
Monday, accompanied by dry weather. The next low pressure system
approaches Monday night into Tuesday, though models still
disagree on whether or not it will track far enough north to bring
precipitation to the forecast area. Previously, the ECMWF
ensembles were tracking this system farther north, but the latest
run has trended farther south. As such, it looks more likely that
the low will miss us to the south or just brush our southern
counties, which certainly fits with the dry pattern we`ve had in
recent weeks/months.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Aside from SCT-BKN VFR stratocumulus clouds over far northern WI,
skies were clear at issuance time. W-NW winds were gusting to 25
to 35 kts at many airport locations.

Stratocumulus clouds should erode over northern WI by sunset, with
VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Strong west to
northwest winds will subside by sunset/early evening, but LLWS
will redevelop as this occurs, as NW winds aloft remain at 35-40
kts. The LLWS is expected to wane at the TAF sites shortly after
midnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch