129
FXUS63 KGRB 141112
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
612 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers expected through the weekend, especially
  west and north of the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas.

- Stormy period expected for at least the early to mid part of
  the next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Light showers and sprinkles are currently noted across north-
central Wisconsin early this morning with a steadier band of
showers upstream across northwest Wisconsin coincident with
800-700 mb frontogenesis. These showers should advect east today
as the frontogenesis and mid level shortwave move east. The
highest chances (60-80 percent) will be across north-central
Wisconsin where the best dynamics will reside. Central and
northeast Wisconsin are also expected to see some of this activity
with lower chances (20-40 percent) further away from the best
dynamics and moisture. The Fox Valley is expected to mainly be
dry, although a sprinkle or light shower is not out of the
question. The abundant cloud cover, east to northeast winds, and
showers will keep temperatures cool today. Highs are only expected
to rise into the upper 50s across north-central Wisconsin, with
lower 70s south of Highway 29.

Rain chances will decrease a bit tonight with the loss of diurnal
heating, with scattered showers still possible across central and
north-central Wisconsin. Another shortwave combined with mid level
frontogenesis and daytime heating will lead to additional showers
on Sunday with a rumble or two of thunder possible Sunday
afternoon as some modest instability builds across the region.
Forcing will be a bit weaker with lower chances (40-60 percent)
expected north and west of the Fox Valley. Highs Sunday will be a
bit warmer; ranging from the middle 60s across north-central
Wisconsin to the middle 70s south of Highway 10.

Much of the upcoming week will be active with a zonal flow in
place across the CONUS with several shortwaves embedded in the
flow tracking through the western Great Lakes region. The
atmosphere will become warmer as temperatures warm above normal
with a more humid airmass next week. The warm and unstable
atmosphere will provide opportunities for strong to severe storms
at times, along with dry periods; however, pinpointing these
periods is difficult as they change from run to run. The first
opportunity could be as soon as Monday night as an MCS develops
upstream and heads for western Wisconsin. There is a marginal
risk for severe weather for portions of central and north-central
Wisconsin if these storms can hold together. Beyond this, there
will likely be additional opportunities for severe weather but
with the models diverging during the middle to late part of next
week confidence is too low to include additional targets.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Extensive IFR/MVFR stratus will persist today with some
improvement from the south and east. Periods of showers are likely
at times, especially from central to northeast Wisconsin (40-80%
chance). However, exact placement and timing of showers will need
to be refined in subsequent updates given the weakly forced nature
of the precipitation. Thunder potential looks very low (<10%)
through the period. Winds will remain east to northeasterly,
generally near or below 10 kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski