996
FXUS63 KGRR 152039
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
339 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

- Rain Late Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Breezy and Much Cooler on Sunday

Cold advection gets underway overnight and continues into Sunday
as a deepening surface cyclone moves east and ridge of high
pressure builds in. Lake effect snow streamers from Superior to
northern Lake Michigan could clip the far northwest forecast area
late tonight into Sunday. We will have light snow amounts, less
than half an inch across northeast Clare County. Surface and air
temps are marginal and no impacts to travel expected.

- Mixed Precip Tuesday

Cyclogenesis expected across the Central Plains on Monday with an
area of warm advection/frontogenesis moving into the southwest
forecast area late Monday night. Model soundings show thermal
profiles favorable for snow as the column saturates and wet bulbs
near 0C down to the surface. Near surface temperatures expected in
the lower to mid 30s during Tuesday, and precip rates are not
expected to be heavy enough to overcome that to cause any issues
with travel, especially during the afternoon.

Cold advection and loss of insolation could result in some icy
patches on roads Tuesday evening. The DGZ dries out and precip
should end by Wednesday morning, but travel impacts could
continue on untreated roads.

- Rain Late Week

Active weather continues for late week with a Southern Plains low
tracking into the Great Lakes. Confidence in the details at this
point but there is enough of a signal to suggest at least a 20
percent chance of heavy rain Thursday night into Friday. The low
is moving quickly, although uncertainty at that time range results
on showers forecast to linger into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Gusty SW to W winds /20-30 kt/ early this afternoon will gradually
veer to NW by late this afternoon and evening as a surface
front/trough swings through the region. As previously noted,
limited moisture is resulting in only a few very light showers
along with a period of MVFR ceilings /2-3kft/. However, VFR
conditions can be expected 19-21Z in the wake of the trough.

Cold air advection and respectable pressure gradient will keep NW
winds up through the night /generally sustained 10-15 kt with
gusts to around 25 kt/. As cold air aloft continues to spill into
the region late tonight, expect lower clouds to return, generally
after daybreak /12-14Z/. Have tentatively kept cloud bases above
3kft /VFR/ but this will need to be monitored, especially over
far western Lower MI given lake interactions.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Smith