723
FXUS63 KGRR 142237
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
637 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for Strong Storms on Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Sunday through Tuesday should see mostly dry weather with the
easterly low level flow that has been so persistent recently
gradually becoming southwest. Moisture advection gets underway
early in the week and into Wednesday with surface dew points
rising to the mid 60s ahead of an approaching cold front.

Numerous areas of convection along the front are expected to be
ongoing during Tuesday afternoon and evening off to the west and
north of Lower Michigan. These storms could arrive across western
zones Tuesday night but the main activity is expected to be on
Wednesday with a sfc low forming on the cold front and a
shortwave trough axis swinging through by Wednesday night.

While model forecast soundings show around 40 knots of deep layer
shear Wednesday afternoon and evening, the severe weather threat
is mostly conditional on the potential for destabilization
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Other than a BKN layer near 4kft at AZO/BTL, skies are clear
across West Michigan, with AZO and BTL clearing after sunset. Late
tonight, SCT to BKN high clouds move into West Michigan and
persist through the end of the TAF period. A lake breeze has
brought NW Winds to MKG with NE winds for all other sites. Winds
become light and variable overnight before increasing from the
east Sunday to 5-10 knots. A lake breeze develops again after 18z
Sunday with winds turning to the northwest at MKG.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The rest of Saturday and Sunday will feature easterly (offshore)
winds near land with more northerly winds over the open waters. High
pressure across the central Great Lakes will keep winds and wave
heights low through the next several days.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas