098
FXUS62 KGSP 112352
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
752 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry air will move in behind a cold front for Tuesday, with
some locations seeing RH down to 30 percent in the afternoon.
2. Another weak cold front may bring a few more showers and
thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly
cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry air will move in behind a cold front for Tuesday,
with some locations seeing RH down to 30 percent in the afternoon.

A cold front will continue to sag southward tonight. There remains
a small chance of a shower through mid-evening, mainly in northeast
GA and the western Upstate, but otherwise, abundant mid to high
altitude cloud cover will linger through the evening. Clearing
should occur from N to S late in the night. Drying will occur only
slowly at the surface, and as winds turn light in the northern
CWA, some fog or low stratus may develop there. Sunnier skies
Tuesday should result in max temps trending a few degrees warmer
compared to Monday in our northern zones, but a little cooler in
the south. Drier dewpoints will mix down to the surface across
the area Tuesday and some locations will see RH dip to near 30%
by mid-afternoon.


Key message 2: Another weak cold front may bring a few more showers
and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and
briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming
trend Friday through the weekend.

Deep shortwave will begin to cut off over the Great Lakes Wednesday;
while the best DPVA looks to occur to our north, height falls
occur over our area as a result, and a cold front will approach
the southern Appalachians during the day. Moisture return ahead of
the front appears limited, partly owing to the good mixing/drying
expected Tuesday, and veered low-level winds Tue night and early
Wed. Nevertheless, models generally still do depict a narrow band of
above-normal PWATs advecting into the area just prior to the fropa,
with similar peak values in our Piedmont, though varying in the
timing of that peak. The 12km NAM and its typically similar Canadian
model are more aggressive in bringing Gulf air above the boundary
layer early Wed morning, and accordingly are appreciably higher
with afternoon dewpoints and SBCAPE than the GFS/EC operational
models. LREF probs of 500 J/kg SBCAPE have actually decreased in our
CWA on the latest available cycle, but that appears to be related
to a slightly earlier depiction of the fropa. Not much change in
NBM PoPs versus the overnight cycle, which seems reasonable in
light of model spread mainly being in timing and little change in
CAPE potential. LREF still shows mean values of 50-60 kt sfc-500mb
bulk shear, with even the 10th percentile being near 40 kt.  If the
front ends up being timed to induce convection east of the mountains
near peak heating, and we manage the higher-end CAPE, we could be
looking at a low-end severe threat Wednesday afternoon, mainly for
damaging wind, with potential for some linear organization. The
moisture/CAPE still appears the limiting factor.

Between the cutoff low over the NE CONUS, and upper ridge in the
lower MS Valley, along with CAA, gusty NW winds develop in the
wake of the front Wednesday night over the mountains and skies
clear. Temps trend noticeably cooler for the mountains Thursday, but
downsloping appears to offset that trend for the Piedmont. Dewpoints
look to tank across the CWA, with continuing gusts likely. Winds
decline Thu night into Fri morning as sfc high shifts over the
area from the NW. The enhanced radiational cooling conditions
potentially will bring morning mins around 10 degrees below normal;
some portions of the mountains could dip into the upper 30s, but
probably still too warm for frost. Temps rebound a bit Friday as
upper low departs and heights rise under mostly sunny skies.

Another low will pass north of the Great Lakes Saturday, which
could bring another weak front into the lower OH and TN valleys,
reflected in the return of small PoPs to the mountains then and
Sunday. However, assuming cloud cover or precip does not impact
temps, temps remain on an upward trend, particularly Sunday. Max
temps Sunday may hit 90 in a number of spots.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Satellite imagery shows persistent stratocu
decks at multiple levels, but mostly VFR, with mid and high
clouds streaming over the top of that. Expect VFR to prevail at
all terminals through the early morning hours, but at some point
before dawn we will be on the lookout for the development of an
IFR/LIFR stratus ceiling over western NC. At the moment, only
KHKY has a good shot, so they get an LIFR ceiling in a TEMPO group
around daybreak, and we will go from there. Wind will be mainly NE
overnight. After daybreak, if the low clouds develop they should
scatter, lift, and mix out by mid-morning. From that point onward,
only scattered cirrus is expected. Wind should come around to SE
as sfc high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Outlook: Dry conditions persist through Wednesday morning. A
clipper-type low may cross to our north late Wednesday, but
guidance suggests rainfall will be paltry with this system, and
it`s questionable whether any flight restrictions will develop.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JCW/PM