102
FXUS62 KGSP 171719
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1219 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool dry high pressure will move off the East Coast Tuesday as a
warm front brings above normal temperatures from Wednesday through
the weekend.  Moisture increases late this week as low pressure
tries to organize to our west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Monday: The region remains underneath a broad NW
flow aloft today that begins to flatten into Tuesday. At the
surface, high pressure slides eastward and brings the western fringe
over the southeast. This should slowly start to increase moisture
return into the area as surface winds turn more S/SW. Regardless,
the pattern remains dry through the near term as subsidence aloft
continues to suppress any precip chances. The only weather related
concern for this period is for fire conditions. Critically low
relative humidity is expected today as the high pressure remains
aloft and dry air continues to mix down into the boundary layer.
Widespread humidity should drop into the mid to upper teens almost
all locations within the CWA. Though winds are expected to be very
light and temps in the 60s, fire concerns remain given the dry
vegetation. At this time, the NE Georgia counties have an Increased
Fire Danger Statement in effect from 11AM through 7PM today. For
tonight, with clear skies anticipated, could see overnight temps dip
into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1043 AM Monday: A split flow pattern will begin taking shape
by mid week as a very active southern stream wave train remains
draped from the Desert Southwest to the Mid-Atlantic with northern
stream flow situated along and just north of the Canadian border.
Within the southern stream, a lead shortwave trough is progged to be
located over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow night with a deep closed
low spinning over southern California. The lead wave will slide
across West Virginia into Virginia overnight with only modest height
falls across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Numerous
showers with some embedded convective elements will accompany this
wave, but the majority of this activity will remain displaced north
of the CWA within a plume of deeper moisture juxtaposed with
sufficient forcing for ascent. The 12z suite of CAMs depict a
weakening line of showers moving into the mountains overnight with
perhaps a surviving shower or two trying to make a run into the
foothills. The greatest rain chances will reside along the Tennessee
border. Temperatures during the day Wednesday quickly rebound as the
passing wave quickly moves offshore and upper ridging builds across
the region. Highs will be well above normal fin the low to upper 70s
with a few readings around 80 not out of the question. This trend
continues into Thursday as upper ridging dominates the pattern east
of the Mississippi River. The only exception will be the potential
for a few showers to try and interact with the mountains in
association with deep-layer southwest flow extending atop a stalled
baroclinic zone extending from the Southern Plains into the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1105 AM Monday: The synoptic pattern becomes highly complex by
late week into the weekend within the split flow pattern. Guidance
has yet to display much in the way of run-to-run consistency and
still varies widely between members and respective ensembles. This
is especially clear in ensemble means where any discernible signal
gets washed out by the wide range of outcomes being depicted. The
result is lower than normal forecast confidence Friday through the
weekend. By Thursday night, the next wave in the southern stream
wave train may be ejecting into the Southern Plains with an eventual
track across the Deep South and towards the Appalachians. Timing of
the wave ejection and how it evolves remains highly uncertain, which
will have implications on any sensible weather across the region.
Some model solutions paint a weaker wave shunted north of the area
with a stronger upper ridge extending out of the Gulf. This would
result in a mainly dry forecast, if realized. On the other hand,
wetter solutions maintain a stronger wave with a farther south track
that would bring measurable rainfall to much of the area Friday
night into Saturday. Forecast confidence wanes even further beyond
that as an additional closed and cutoff upper low spins over the
Desert Southwest while a more pronounced northern stream trough digs
across the Great Lakes. The blended forecast has been maintained
again with this forecast cycle, but expect notable changes through
the week as the guidance attempts to get a better handle on how this
complicated pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the TAF
period. High pressure remains over the region and should keep the
skies SKC for most of the evening and overnight. No vsby/cig
restrictions are anticipated. A few high level cirrus are possible
but should remain SCT over the mountains. Winds start off NW at all
sites before becoming VRB overnight. Tuesday morning, expect winds
to increase out of the S/SW. Some low-end gusts are possible east of
the mountains Tuesday afternoon at KCLT.

Outlook: Restrictions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with
a brief VFR period on Thursday. Showers and restrictions return on
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds decreased through the evening, but RH values dip below 20% for
most of the area as a very dry air mass remains in place. Increased
fire danger conditions are expected once again. Currently, a Fire
Danger Statement is in effect for the NE Georgia counties through
7PM.

Humidity and temperatures steadily increase tonight through mid-
week. One more afternoon of near critical RH is likely Tuesday, but
minimums are expected to be more in the 25-30% range. Although RH is
should remain well above critical levels for the remainder of the
week, warmer temperatures return. This could create a low-end
wildfire risk given the lower 10-hour fuel moisture.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010-
     017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...CP
FIRE WEATHER...