304
FXUS62 KGSP 030608
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will result in chilly and dry conditions today and
likely Thursday. Conditions turn even colder Friday as precipitation
returns to the area, with a wintry mix likely in portions of
western North Carolina. Chances for precipitation linger through
the weekend, with warmer but still below-normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1214 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) SPS remains in place through 9 AM today for icy road conditions
along the NC-TN border.

2) Dry and chilly weather continues Wednesday.

Still seeing some lingering low stratus across the extreme southern
tier of the forecast area, as well as some valley stratocu across
the NC mountains.  Radar suggests light NW flow snow is still
underway across some locations along the NC-TN border - particularly
the Smokies - but with little to no accumulation expected.
An elongated 1020mb surface high is presently analyzed extending
from the eastern Ozark Plateau southward into the Mississippi delta
region, and slowly filtering into the Carolinas.  Expect light
winds the remainder of the overnight, allowing excellent radiative
cooling to bring temperatures across most of the region, with
the exception of those zones across the Savannah River Valley and
Midlands which may see lingering cloud cover for much of the night,
into the mid-20s by daybreak.  Some patchy mountain valley fog may
manage to develop, particularly across the Little Tennessee Valley.

By day, skies will clear out and high pressure will migrate
eastward...becoming centered over the Carolinas by evening.
High temperatures will only climb into the upper 40s despite
ample sunshine.  A light southerly wind should develop by evening
and continue into the overnight hours, maintaining lows up to a
category warmer on Thursday morning than they will be this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of midnight Wednesday morning:

Key message: Precipitation chances increase Thursday night and peak
Friday, with temperatures supporting a chance of light snow and/or
freezing rain in a portion of the area.

Cold front will be associated with shortwave moving across the
eastern Great Lakes and St Lawrence Valley Thursday. The shortwave
appears too weak to budge the flat ridge over the Caribbean and
subtropical Atlantic, and the front practically stalls over NC by
afternoon. High altitude cloud cover is shown to spread over the
area. Midlevel speed max will promote stronger downslope flow.  With
that and some airmass modification temperatures should rebound a few
degrees east of the mountains, despite mid to high altitude clouds
brought by the front. Slight CAA and earlier arrival of clouds
suggests slightly lower temps over the mountains compared to Wed.

The sfc high behind the front expands east out of the mid-MS Valley
which should lead to the front oozing southward across GA/SC Thu
night. A previously existing baroclinic zone in the lower MS Valley
will activate ahead of another southern-stream shortwave. Moist WAA
associated with that development is responsible for light QPF
response over GA/SC which translates to slight-chance (around 20%)
PoPs in our southern zones Thu afternoon. Surface temp and wet-bulb
support that activity being all rain at that time, if it materializes
that early.

Models have come into better agreement that the sfc high will shift
eastward and be in position for in-situ CAD as the baroclinic zone
amplifies Thu night and PoPs increase from SW to NE after midnight
Friday morning. Prog soundings are largely supportive of snow at
onset over high elevations of the SW NC mountains and almost all
mountain/Escarpment locations northeast of the French Broad. That
could be a result of guidance consensus bringing the parent high in
faster and more strongly than earlier runs. Surface temps/wet-bulbs
look to be the main factor in p-type in this early stage of the
event, with wet-bulb profiles indicating a weaker or even nonexistent
warm nose compared to the past two CAD events we just had. Though NBM
bias corrections seem to have picked up on the wedge (values being
close to the 75th-90th NBM percentile), blended in raw model
temps/dewpoints which performed well in last weekend`s CAD to try to
nail the p-type trends more closely. Wet-bulb temp looks likely to be
slightly above freezing in the NW NC Piedmont (areas near/north of
I-40) and in some of the FB Valley. Much of those areas are forecast
to have a rain-snow mix with accumulation thus limited to only a few
tenths of an inch. Some sleet and/or freezing rain may develop Friday
morning as warm nose builds with increasing WAA over the wedge; ice
accums mainly result along the usual areas of the eastern Escarpment.
Most areas that see wintry precip in the morning change over to all
rain by noon or so, but ice could accumulate in the coldest northern
Escarpment areas into late day.

Friday should be an exceptionally cold day with the eastern NC
foothills and I-40 corridor not likely making it out of the 30s, and
maxes in the lower 40s even in the warmest areas such as the Little
TN Valley and south of I-85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 AM Wed:

Key message 1: Confidence remains low for Friday night through
Sunday due to model differences in the handling of the stalled front.

Still expect that a Miller A-type coastal low will spin up Friday
afternoon along the stalled front and push out into the Atlantic
overnight, following the primary jet streak. Models largely show a
secondary speed max developing at 250mb over the Ozarks and lower OH
Valley Fri night which reactivates the inland portion of the front,
producing more QPF response mainly south of I-20.  The GFS and NAM
solutions prolong precip in our CWA as a result of this process,
which would likely keep a shallow wedge in place even as the parent
high becomes increasingly distant. 02/12z EC and 03/00z GDPS begin
CAD erosion. Low PoPs persist thru Saturday morning and temps dip
below freezing in some of our northern zones, so some of the precip
falls out as freezing rain.

Key message 2: Light northwest flow snow is possible near the TN
border late Sunday thru early Monday.

Most models depict a clipper-like shortwave blowing across the
Appalachians between late Sunday and Monday morning, and small PoPs
redevelop near the TN border. Temps appear supportive of snow at
that time.

More details to come by 200 AM EST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Most sites are now VFR, and should mostly
remain so through the 06z TAF period.  Some intermittent MVFR
ceilings could appear at KAND over the next few hours as some
trapped stratocu continues to clear out south of I-85, and
there`s a chance that some MVFR valley fog could develop across
the NC mountains.  Still carrying a TEMPO for that at KAVL.
Otherwise...expect light N winds through the period and mostly
clear conditions.  By Wednesday night, an increase in cirrus
appears likely, but will be of little operational significance.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through at least the first part
of Thursday.  Rain chances return Thursday night and into the
weekend, along with possible associated flight restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCW
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...MPR