508
FXUS62 KGSP 112345
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
645 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate our weather for the next several days
as temperatures go through a warming trend between today and the end
of the week. Fair and warm weather is expected over the weekend. The
next low pressure system could affect our region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Slippery road conditions expected tonight across areas that
received accumulating snowfall.

2) Colder temps stick around with intermittent gusty winds across
the mountains.

As of 1210 PM EDT Tuesday: High pressure resumes over the southeast
as the upper trough lifts out of the area and flow aloft becomes
more quasi-zonal. Toward the end of the period, a moderate ridge out
west turns upper winds NW as another trough dips southward from
Canada, but surface high pressures keeps the area dry. The bigger
story are the rebounding temperatures as the airmass modifies
throughout the period. Guidance has a weak shortwave traversing
across the CWA on Wednesday and continues to the drier air trend.
Limited moisture and unimpressive forcing keeps the shortwave from
producing any weather of mention. Winds across the mountains should
decrease throughout the day and pick up again overnight. The trough
off to the north skirts through the mid-Atlantic region, edging a
tighter pressure gradient toward the northern and high elevations of
the CWA. Regardless, winds remain below any advisory criteria. As
for temperatures, expect overnight lows to be somewhat warmer with
most of the locations east of the mountains reaching at or just
above freezing. Mountain regions dip below freezing tonight. Any
areas that received snowfall, could see black ice concerns tonight
on sidewalks or roadways where melting occurred during the day.
However, with most of the mountain areas getting well above freezing
and gusty winds, this is expected to assist the melt/evaporation
process. The areas of most concern for any ice on roadways are at
the higher elevations (above 3500 feet) where accumulations were
higher and temps are colder today. By Wednesday, daytime highs
quickly rebound and warm to just below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1039 AM EST Tuesday: The rest of the week looks relatively
quiet and dry with a warming trend. The upper pattern doesn`t change
much with our area underneath a broad and deep NW flow between the
trof axis that moved off the East Coast and the upstream ridge axis
over the Rockies through Friday. Might still be a little breezy
Wednesday night with the passage of a weak reinforcing front,
but the pressure gradient relaxes quickly Thursday morning. Behind
the front, sfc high pressure will settle over the mtns and temps
will continue their steady warmup. Lows might still be on the cool
side of normal because of good radiational cooling conditions and
the dry air mass, but highs will go from near normal on Thursday
to a category above normal on Friday. The afternoon RH could be
problematic assuming the apparent usual NBM bias toward keeping
the dewpoint too high on good mixing days, so we will expect some
RH below 30 percent in the afternoons over the Piedmont/Upstate.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1050 AM EST Tuesday: Once we get out to the end of the
week, the upper pattern starts to become slowly progressive once
again. The upper ridge axis over the Plains holds its position
briefly over the weekend while the next low pressure system moves
over the Southwest/Great Basin. That should keep us in the broad
WNW flow aloft and under warm and dry high pressure, making for
a lovely weekend, in theory. There is the matter of some moisture
dropping down in this flow that model guidance picks up on Sunday
along another weak front. The model blend keeps some low-end precip
probs for Sunday and Sunday night over the western part of the mtns,
but this looks somewhat dubious. The trend is toward delaying and
decreasing the precip prob, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see
this eventually dry up completely until the next system arrives
from the west early next week. Meanwhile, the temps will climb up
again to 5-10 degrees above normal. If there is any controversy,
it would be with the handling of the western system expected to
come off the Rockies out onto the Plains Sunday night and into
Monday. The models are having some big differences of opinion as to
how much the system will deamplify Monday into Tuesday and where
the trof will move, with the 06Z GFS showing the strongest wave
coming toward our region on Tuesday. Hard to say which way this
one will trend...more toward the low end because of poor moisture
return and forcing well to the north...or more toward the high end
with better moisture return and maybe even another round of strong
storms. For now, Tuesday will feature a chance over the mtns with
temps falling back to around normal. No cold air, so all precip
will be liquid even at the highest elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR tonight, although patchy clouds at
FL130-180 and at or above FL250 will pass overhead at times. With
sfc high pressure centered south of the region, breezy and
occasionally gusty winds continue thru the period at the surface,
mainly out of the SW, although due to mountain wave and valley
cooling, KAVL is likely to flip back to light NW late tonight. When
not NW, KAVL is also likely to see SW winds/gusts. Strong westerly
flow above nocturnal inversion looks to produce LLWS across most of
the area by around midnight and continuing thru around daybreak,
with only KHKY not getting a mention. The SW winds/gusts continue
thru the day Wed.

Outlook: VFR conditions generally expected through the remainder
of the week.  Winds become lighter Thursday, increasing the chance
for mountain/river valley fog/low stratus each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JCW