386
FXUS62 KGSP 262335
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
735 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Convective trends updated based on radar and latest CAM guidance.

The aviation forecast updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and continue
through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and
continue through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected
early next week.

Scattered convection slowly diminishes in coverage this evening with
isolated showers possible overnight. More in the way of low clouds
expected overnight with patchy fog across the area and better
coverage in the usual mountain valley locations.

Otherwise, the brief stint of drier weather comes to an end as the
southeast gets wedged in between two areas of high pressure. An
amplifying and stout ridge parks over the southwestern CONUS through
at least Saturday. Downstream, a persistent trough dips and remains
over the eastern portion of the country. Because of these synoptic
features, a return to daily shower and thunderstorm chances through
Friday and lingering into Saturday. Model guidance hints at Friday
being the most active day as a wonky shortwave slides down the
trough, suggesting some semblance of upper lift and support for an
isolated strong or severe storm to arise. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms highly depend on the arrival time of said shortwave,
indicating there could be more storms to watch. Main threat from
these potential storms on Friday, and each day, is damaging winds.
If enough instability is present and the atmosphere decides, small
hail could occur in the deeper cores, but one shall see.

It`s still summer, despite how much yearning for Fall is upon us
all. Speaking of summer, the southwest CONUS looks to re-gift the
region an unwanted present of heat once again. Long range guidance
shifts the ridge eastward, raising heights and lowering morale in
the southeast as temperatures tick upward. Given the open warm
sector and ample moisture, higher dewpoints leads to undesirable
heat indices after Monday. The search for a cold front is turning up
empty handed, but hopefully not for too much longer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection lingers around KCLT through
01/02Z. Can`t rule out an additional cell moving over the other
sites, but chance is lower. After the convection dissipates this
evening, eyes turn toward the increasing potential for low clouds
developing in the moist southerly flow. Have MVFR to IFR cigs
developing toward daybreak with some spotty MVFR vsby. Better chance
of IFR vsby a KHKY and KAVL, where LIFR vsby is possible.
Restrictions should clear relatively quickly after daybreak. Another
round of afternoon convection expected with PROB30s for all sites.
Diminishing S to SE wind this evening becoming calm to light and
variable all areas overnight. Light S to SW wind picks up during the
day Thursday.

Outlook: Good diurnal coverage of SHRA/TSRA Friday and Saturday,
with less coverage Sunday and Monday. Mountain valley fog and low
stratus is possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/RWH