669
FXUS62 KGSP 020703 CCA
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
303 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion.

Adjusted PoP trends this evening based on radar and latest
guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Much cooler today with scattered showers and isolated mountain
thunderstorms.
2. Dry/convection-free weather with a warming trend Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Much cooler today with scattered showers and isolated
mountain thunderstorms.

The latest water vapor imagery depicts a broad long wave trough
centered just off the East Coast, with a short wave trough digging
south into the central Appalachians. Surface analysis depicts
light NE flow across our forecast area, with drier air gradually
filtering into the Piedmont. In the wake of the short wave,
broad high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes,
sharpening an inverted ridge down Virginia and Carolina Piedmont as
statically stable air spills east of the central Appalachians. In
conjunction with this, an inverted trough will sharpen across east
TN and far western NC, and this will provide the primary impetus
for precip chances later today...with chances enhanced by the
approaching short wave. PoPs will therefore be highest (likely)
across far southwest NC, while 20-40 PoPs are advertised for much
of the remaining area west of roughly Highway 321. Mostly showers
are anticipated, although an isolated thunderstorm is possible
across the Smokies and vicinity. ENE low level flow along with
mid-level cloud cover is expected to result in temps around 10
degrees below normal in most locations through tonight.


Key message 2: Dry/convection-free weather with a warming trend
Wednesday through the end of the week.

Heights will begin to rise Wed, as a long wave trough progresses
away from the East Coast, and a highly amplified ridge/associated
anticyclone builds into the Southeast from the central Conus. A
warming trend commences Wednesday, with temps steadily warming each
day...reaching normal levels by Friday and likely remaining within a
degree or two of climo through early next week as the ridge begins
to break down. The upper air pattern will favor some degree of
surface ridging across the southern Appalachians and vicinity
through much of the week, with little-to-no moisture transport
expected off the Gulf of western Atlantic. As such, chances for
convection are virtually nil until at least Sunday, when the air
mass may modify sufficiently to allow for spotty diurnal
showers/perhaps a storm over the high terrain. Chances for
convection improve a bit into the early part of the new work week,
when global models generally agree in falling eastern heights and
improving moisture/instability profiles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: An inverted surface ridge will gradually
strengthen through the morning, resulting in steadily increasing NE
winds, allowing drier low level air to filter through the Terminal
Forecast Area. Meanwhile, areas of high and especially mid-level
clouds will continue to stream across the area. For the most part,
these factors are expected to prevent development of extensive low
clouds and fog early this morning. Having said that, the drier air
isn`t pushing in as quickly as previously anticipated, and very
low surface temp/dewpoint spreads are currently being observed
at most sites (KCLT being a notable exception...VFR is expected
there through the period.) Most of these locations also received
appreciable rainfall Mon evening. Thus, there is concern that at
least transient periods of restrictions are possible before the
winds increase and drier air arrives later this morning. Tempos for
MVFR conditions w/ SCT IFR cloud layers are carried at most sites
between 07-10Z...except for IFR visby at KAND. Any restrictions are
not expected to persist past sunrise, and VFR is forecast from that
point through the end of the period, with mid-level cigs expected
to continue at most sites through the daylight hours. NE winds
of around 10 kts will develop at all sites except KAVL by late
morning...continuing through the daylight hours before diminishing
this evening.

Outlook: Convection-free weather is expected through at least
Saturday. VFR will predominate, but some potential for morning
mountain valley fog/low clouds will develop by the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL