549
FXUS62 KGSP 032335
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 00Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and lingering through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and lingering through Friday.

Widespread cloud cover is in place across the area this evening as
deepening moisture continues to stream into the area embedded within
ESE flow across the Southeast.  There`s no evidence on radar of
any ongoing drizzle, although some very shallow, isolated sprinkles
can`t be ruled out, particularly along the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

Otherwise...the upper level pattern across the CONUS will remain
amplified and not especially progressive through much of the week,
with a fairly short-lived omega block persisting over the next few
days out west.  The center of an upper low is expected to lift from
the Southern Plains to the upper MS Valley by Wednesday morning,
inducing gradual height falls over the Eastern CONUS. An associated
occluding/weakening frontal zone is fcst to approach our CWA from
the west on Wednesday.  Persistent SLY flow ahead of this feature
will result in increasingly warm and humid conditions over the
next couple of days, with temps expected to be at least 5 to 10
degrees above normal while sfc dewpts are expected to reach the
60s by Wed aftn. The frontal zone should have more than enough
moisture along with some modest instability in place as it moves
into our area Wed aftn/evening. Short-term guidance still shows
fairly robust forcing, especially in the low levels as the boundary
crosses the TN Valley and the Deep South Wed aftn, but this weakens
as it moves into our area Wed evening. As a result, a notable
gradient in PoPs and especially QPF is anticipated from west to
east, with roughly 0.5 to 1.0" amounts currently fcst across our
western third (with locally higher amounts on south-facing slopes),
and less than 0.25" expected over the I-77 corridor. In addition,
the combination of fairly weak shear and modest instability along
with the occluding nature of the front are not favorable for an
organized severe storm threat. Regardless, a few strong-to-severe
storms cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is possible across
our western zones, especially on aforementioned south-facing slopes,
with a non-zero chance of localized flash flooding Wed/Wed night.

Little temperature contrast is anticipated in the wake of the
frontal zone on Thursday, so conditions are expected to remain warm
and humid.  Broad cyclonic flow aloft combined with terrain effects
is likely to result in some sct convection Thursday aftn/evening. By
Thursday night, a weakening upper low over the Southern Plains is
fcst to move quickly across the SE quadrant of the CONUS, with the
associated height falls bringing another cold front to our area,
and possibly another round of sct convection on Friday. At this
time, most of the guidance has better coverage/higher PoPs over
our eastern zones. Saturday should be mostly dry with temperatures
remaining above normal and some amount of cooler/drier air advecting
into our area. By Sunday, temperatures and humidity levels should
return to near-normal for early Nov.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Our streak of quiet aviation weather
finally comes to an end over the next 24 hours as an active system
approaches from the west.  All the TAF sites are currently VFR,
but quite a bit of cloud cover is in place, with mostly BKN/OVC
stratocu and some thick mid-level clouds.  Guidance is in good
agreement, however, that as deeper moisture pushes into the area
overnight, most terminals will see at least MVFR ceilings before
daybreak, with some potential for IFR cigs leading up to dawn.
Thereafter, thick cloud cover embedded within strengthening SE
winds will result in MVFR to IFR restrictions persisting for much
of Wednesday.  Some low-end gusts may develop, particularly at KCLT,
and possibly the Upstate sites as well.  Some improvement late in
the day will be brief, if it occurs at all, as scattered showers,
and perhaps even a couple of embedded thunderstorms, arrive in
the western zones by around sunset.  Scattered showers will then
persist across the area for much of Wednesday night, resulting in
widespread patchy fog and lingering low ceilings through the end
of the 00Z TAF period and beyond.

Outlook: Showers and associated restrictions will persist into
at least early Thursday, as a cold front arrives in the region.
Consistent improvement is not expected until Friday, when the
cold front moves to our east and ushers in VFR conditions for
the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT/MPR