964
FXPQ50 PGUM 050820
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
620 PM ChST Fri Dec 5 2025

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies for Guam and mostly
sunny skies over the CNMI. Radar imagery shows scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over Guam and Guam coastal waters. Altimetry
show seas of 6 to 7 feet, while buoy data shows 4 to 6 foot sea
heights.

&&

.Discussion...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Guam panned out.
These showers are expected to diminish as through the evening.
Pleasant weather is in store for all of the Marianas through most of
next week. Winds are expected to be 10 to 15 mph providing a nice
breeze to compliment the pleasant weather.

&&

.Marine...
The seas and swells are expected to be in a bit of flux over the
next week as pulses from a distant mid-latitude feature ripple
through the region. Seas are expected to bounce between 5 to 7 and 6
to 8 over the next several days. This will firmly place the risk of
rip currents along north and east facing reefs in the moderate
category. While these sea conditions will be elevated, they are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) and High Surf
Advisory (HSA) conditions. However, seas are expected to be choppy.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
Satellite observations show isolated showers over eastern
Micronesia. Altimetry and buoy date show combined seas between 6 and
9 feet across the region.

Quiet conditions are in place across the island zones with only
Kosrae expected to see scattered showers starting late tonight and
continuing through the next few days. Otherwise, the axis of shower
activity has shifted south of Pohnpei and Majuro and isolated
showers are forecast through the period. Long range guidance beyond
seven days shows little change with this pattern, with the focus of
convection remaining further south.

The marine forecast continues to be the main talking point for
eastern Micronesia. Combined seas are currently between 6 and 9 feet
across the region, but will continue to rise over the coming days.
This afternoon`s ASCAT pass showed 22 to 25 kt winds entering the
northern portions of the Marshall Islands. These winds are
forecast to shift southward tonight and a Small Craft Advisory was
issued for Majuro through Sunday afternoon. Large breaking waves of
10 to 13 feet will also lead to hazardous surf for north and east
facing reefs of Majuro beginning Saturday morning and continue until
Sunday afternoon. The Coastal Flood Advisory was also extended into
Sunday afternoon.

The High Surf Advisory was cancelled for Pohnpei and north facing
reefs of Kosrae. Confidence is high enough that surf will remain
below the 9 foot threshold for at least 24 hours. The High Surf
Advisory was extended for east facing reefs of Kosrae due to the
criteria being 8 feet. Surf does look to become hazardous again for
north facing reefs of Pohnpei and Kosrae on Sunday or Sunday night
and a High Surf Advisory will likely need to be re-issued for those
reefs with tomorrow`s package.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Latest satellite data shows partly cloudy skies with spotty showers
across Palau and Chuuk. Yap has mostly cloudy skies with isolated
showers, however, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen to the east of Yap Proper. Altimetry shows seas between 4 and 7
feet for Yap and Palau, with higher seas north, and 6 to 8 feet for
Chuuk.

A mostly dry pattern is now in place across western Micronesia. The
only exception is Yap. Only isolated showers are seen at Yap right
now, however, a band of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
is approaching from the east. This convection is associated with a
weak band of convergence north of the Near-Equatorial Trough (NET).
The NET continues to weaken as it drifts west and this will allow
the band of convergence to move across Yap tonight as it pushes
toward the northwest. By Saturday morning, expect to see the dry
pattern set up across Yap State. Model guidance and satellite trends
favor a dry pattern across the region through at least the middle of
next week.

The main concern over the next few days is the coastal and marine
forecast. For Chuuk, the north swell there continues to subside,
however, a large trade-wind swell is building into the state. This
will maintain moderate coastal inundation of just over 1 foot along
north and east facing reefs due to the King Tide cycle. Later in the
weekend and early next week, the high tides will begin to fall and
coastal flooding will no longer be a problem. For Yap and Palau,
another round of north swell is now moving into the region. The north
swell, combined with the King Tide cycle is expected to produce
minor coastal inundation along north facing reefs Saturday morning.
The north swell is expected to reach 6 to 7 feet, resulting in
hazardous surf along north facing reefs as well. Therefore, a High
Surf Advisory (HSA) and Coastal Flood Statement (CFS) were issued for
north facing reefs of Yap and Palau. Tides and swell should decrease
enough by Sunday night for the inundation and hazardous surf to end
at Palau. Yap will see higher swell a bit longer, so both the HSA and
CFS will remain in effect until early Monday morning.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Bowsher
East Micronesia: Williams
West Micronesia: Kleeschulte