055
FXUS61 KGYX 161801
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
201 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes gradually builds along the
East Coast Friday and then settles south of New England over the
weekend. A trough swings into the Northeast early next week
sending a frontal system into the region Monday. The pattern
remains unsettled through next week as another system, or two,
move into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ocean storm continues to throw moisture back westward into the
eastern half of the forecast area this evening. While it is cool
in the upper Kennebec Valley you really need some elevation to
get cold. Some of the higher peaks like the Bigelow Range will
continue to see occasional flurries. I also anticipate some
gusts to 35 mph possible thru sunset...as the core of strongest
winds is not moving over the forecast area until around 800 PM.

Overnight winds become steady and CAA will drive most of the
cooling. Farther west some of the more sheltered valleys may be
able to go calm enough to support some radiational cooling and
frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fri the CAA coming to an end and more sunshine will allow temps
to get a fair bit warmer than today. Pressure gradient will
still be high enough to support a breezy afternoon...but I do
not expect anywhere near the gusts we have seen the last two
days.

Fri night has a better chance to see winds decouple and
radiational cooling to take over. Widespread 20s and 30s are
likely and areas of frost to go along with it. Much of the
forecast area has ended the growing season...but frosty
conditions may make it into the interior zones and a frost
advisory may be necessary for a small area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Overview: A ridge moves overhead bringing a stretch of
dry weather and above normal temperatures through the weekend.
The pattern then becomes increasingly unsettled as multiple
upper level lows look to pass through the region next week.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Temperatures trend above normal through the weekend
* The pattern becomes increasingly unsettled next week with
  multiple disturbances to keep an eye on

Details: Saturday: A ridge moves overhead Saturday making for
mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures. High
temperatures south of the mountains climb into the low to
mid-60s, and into the upper 50s and low 60s to the north. Clear
skies and calm winds continue into Saturday night, but southwest
flow aloft as the ridge axis moves to the east acts to warm 850
temperatures so low temperatures begin to become more mild.
Temperatures likely only bottom out in the mid to upper 30s
areawide, with some low 40s along the coast.

Sunday and Monday: The ridge axis shifts eastward over the Gulf
of Maine Sunday increasing the southwesterly flow aloft and
warming 850mb temperatures to around +11C. This looks to be the
warmest day with temperatures south of the mountains able to
climb into the mid- to upper 60s, and into the low to mid 60s to
the north under mostly clear skies. Clouds build in during the
evening and overnight as a potent trough approaches the region.
This keeps Sunday night mild with lows only able to fall into
the 40s areawide, with the coastline hovering around 50F. Models
have come into slightly better agreement regarding timing of
the front Monday, but the positioning of the low is still up in
the air as the Euro continues to cut off the low over the Mid
Atlantic, while the GFS has an inside runner that whips off to
the northeast. The GFS solution is faster and drier with
ensemble probabilities of greater than a half inch less than
30%. The Euro solution would result in a more prolonged event
with probabilities greater than a half inch in the 30-50% range.


Tuesday-Thursday: The main difference in the above solutions
mainly effects Tuesday`s outcome. As mentioned the GFS solution
is in and out on Monday making for a mostly dry Tuesday. The
Euro has the low crawling eastward continuing showers through
the day Tuesday. The QPF looks light and largely inconsequential
if the Euro ends up correct, but the difference between a dry
day and light showers is, so this will have to be watched. There
is decent agreement in another upper low swinging in right
behind this one midweek and taking the southern/coastal track.
This one being at the end of the forecast period means there is
plenty of time for further developments, but an early look at
ensemble probabilities for the Wednesday-Thursday period suggest
another round of mostly light showers with probabilities of
greater than a half inch less than 30% in both suites.
Stretching this out to look at the probability of greater than
an inch accumulating from both events yields a 40-60% chance
from the Euro ensemble suite and 20-40% for the GFS suite. As
has been said many times over the past few months, beneficial
rain may be on the way, but it won`t be a drought buster.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the period.
North northwest wind gusts around 25 to 30 kt will diminish this
evening. Steady breeze lingers for much of the night so no fog
anticipated. Northerly surface gusts approaching 20 kt will be
possible Fri before winds finally diminish Fri night. Some
valley fog is possible around LEB once winds go calm.

Long Term...VFR looks to prevail through the weekend, before
ceilings begin to thicken and lower after 00Z Monday. Monday
could be a mix of MVFR and potentially lower conditions as
showers move through the region. This may result in fog Monday
night if the showers come to an end. Tuesday may also feature
some showers, but even if it does not, ceilings likely remain
largely MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty north northwest winds continue overnight.
Marginal gales outside of the bays will transition to SCAs at
some point late this evening or early Fri morning. SCA
conditions will also linger in the bays until Fri morning. High
pressure builds in Fri and winds and seas will continue to
gradually diminish.

Long Term...Sub SCA conditions look to last through the day
Sunday, before seas build back to around 5ft Sunday night as a
system movers over the waters. These SCA seas last through the
day Tuesday, before briefly subsiding Tuesday night. SCA seas
look to return midweek as another system moves into the Gulf of
Maine. Wind gusts will be near 25kts on Monday with the first
system, but otherwise wind gusts should generally be 15-20kts
through the first part of next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Baron