523
FXUS61 KGYX 281842
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
242 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low pressure will continue to slowly pivot towards the
region by Friday. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected along the cold front as it crawls across New
England Friday, but showers will remain in the forecast into the
weekend. Then next week some cooler weather arrives along with a
return to dry conditions. Depending on how much rain falls
Friday, this could mean expanding drought conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Daytime cumulus will erode this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. There may be a brief window of mostly clear skies this
evening before cirrus and middeck build. Across the Midcoast and
Southern Kennebec Valley, enough clearing may persist to allow
low stratus/fog to develop late. With the expectation that
clouds build into the region, chose not to undercut tonight`s
lows despite light winds across the interior. Will need to watch
trends in the eastern portion of the CWA if fog does not
develop. Showers approach western New Hampshire by daybreak
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Showers and thunderstorms develop early Friday and slowly push
  east into early evening. A couple stronger storms will be
  possible, and may contain locally gusty winds and small hail.

Cold front begins pushing through the forecast area early in the
morning with showers accompanying. Inversion remains early
morning, but elevated instability builds. Areas that see morning
sun will be able to overcome this inversion quicker, with
300-600 j/kg of SBCAPE materializing from southern NH through
the Lakes Region and into interior and coastal ME. This is the
more conditional aspect of storm activity for Friday. Around 30
kts of 0-6km shear will be present around the front, with low
and mid level lapse rates supportive of a few stronger storms.
Thinking is this may be similar to Wednesday`s setup, with more
CAPE to work with in the region outlined above. The result
midweek was a couple reports of small, sub-severe hail and
locally gusty winds.

Parent low pressure to the west over Quebec slows and so to will
forward progression of the front. This could lead to multiple
rounds of showers with embedded thunder over portions of
southern ME through early evening.

Clouds will slowly retreat first across SW NH in the evening and
overnight hours Friday. This will be slower into Maine, and low
level moisture may keep clouds locked into the mountains into
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message: Some cooler weather thru the extended...but
continued dry conditions will likely contribute to at least
maintaining drought status.

Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions. A well timed high
pressure could also bring the potential for frost in some
northern valleys...but confidence in timing is low on that.

Forecast Details: The extended will begin with upper low
lifting out of the region. Currently the NBM has some showery
weather lingering into Sun...especially over the higher
terrain...but dry by Mon. However DESI does show two clusters
with a deeper trof/cooler temps aloft lingering over the region
into Mon. This is roughly 35 to 40 percent of ensemble
members...and would likely result in some afternoon convective
showers. If ensemble forecasts continue and NBM still does not
show much in the way of PoP I may look to increase them with
subsequent forecast.

Otherwise temps will average near to below normal. The building
ridge will be of CONUS origin...so not particularly cool.
However a well timed surface high would lead to some efficient
radiational cooling and potential for frost in northern valleys.


The main story will be that beyond the weekend there is not
much rain in the forecast again. So unless we get significant
rain in the next couple of days...the drought conditions are
likely to worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR this evening. Stratus/fog may develop across
the interior and Midcoast later this evening and overnight, this
could bring IFR ceilings with some vis restriction. SHRA moves
into western NH Friday morning, progressing east through the
day. TS develops late morning through the afternoon, some may
have locally gusty winds and small hail. MVFR deck possible
through the day Friday, but low confidence in coverage. This
does look to thicken into the evening, with MVFR/IFR at most
southern ME terminals.


Long Term...Mostly VFR conditions expected in the extended.
Some local MVFR or lower is possible in SHRA over the
weekend...but much of that activity should stay north of the TAF
sites. Heading into next week high pressure may promote more in
the way of valley fog...and IFR or lower conditions for the
favored sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Onshore flow tonight into Friday as a cold front
advances from the west. Showers and storms develop inland, and
may approach the bays/harbors beginning late morning/early
afternoon. These could bring gusty winds and small hail.


Long Term...With upper low lifting out and ridging/surface high
building in for next week...winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA thresholds.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cornwell
SHORT TERM...Cornwell
LONG TERM...Legro
AVIATION...Cornwell/Legro
MARINE...Cornwell/Legro