601
FXUS61 KGYX 201429
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1029 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves offshore with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph
today. High pressure builds in tonight into Monday allowing
winds to slacken. The next chance of showers arrives Monday
night into Tuesday as low pressure approaches New England. High
pressure brings fair and dry conditions through the mid-week
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM...Forecast in good shape so far today, and mainly made a
few tweaks based on current obs to T/Td and sky, but overall
any clouds out there this morning should dissipate this
afternoon.

935 AM...RFW issued for S NH after discussion with NH Forests
and Lands.

830 AM...After consultation with Maine Forest Service, a RFW
has been issued for coastal areas and interior SW ME through
today.

645 AM...Winds have started to ramp up and have made some
adjustments to near term sustained winds and gusts based on
these observations. Otherwise no significant changes to the
going forecast.

Previously...

A potent short wave swinging across Quebec will lead to a
strengthening area of low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes
today. A cold front is currently pushing towards the coast with
sharp pressure rises modeled in the wake of this front. Mesoscale
models show there will be a corridor of 50 kt NW winds at 850
mb that sets up over Maine into portions of New Hampshire this
morning. BUFKIT profiles show mixing will deepen after sunrise
with the top of the mixed layer approaching this corridor of 50
kt winds. The combination of an isallobaric wind component behind
the front and strong winds aloft mixing to the surface will
result in gusts of 40 to 50 mph today across Maine and much of
NH. The strongest winds are forecast over Maine zones with winds
diminishing in strength towards SW NH. Have issued a Wind
Advisory for western Maine and much of NH except far southwest
portions where peak gusts will be closer to 40 mph.

A cooler and drier airmass will be transported into the area on
these winds. Mixing will also aid in lowering dew points
resulting in min RH 15-25 percent south of the mountains. Skies
will be mostly sunny and highs will range from the low 40s north
to upper 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Winds will drop off this evening becoming light and variable
overnight as high pressure builds into the area. The combination
of light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for efficient
radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 20s north to
low 30s south.

High pressure will cross the area Monday morning before
shifting into the Gulf of Maine Monday evening. Light and
variable winds in the morning will become steady out of the
south during the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies in the morning
will give way to increasing high clouds from the west as the
next area of low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Monday
evening. The forecast area will remain dry through much of the
day with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s except along the
coast where onshore winds will knock temperatures down in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1050 PM Update... Little change in the latest NBM suite of
guidance. A return to more seasonable temperatures looks likely
for much of next week along with a few rain chances. The
greatest potential for measurable rainfall currently looks to be
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Previously..The trend at 500 MB across NOAM will be for more
zonal flow next week, although there will still be a couple weak
waves moving through and some variation in temps, but overall,
spring is here and temps are trending upward, with highs more in
the 50s and 60s and some 70s. Chances for rain /and yes, I can
just rain at this point/, will be Mon night into Tuesday and
again late in the week, although both events will lean toward
showery than steady rain.

The threat of showers comes in Monday night, as 500 MB trough
passes just N of of the CWA late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
range from around 40 in the mtns and E zones to the mid 40s in S
NH. Tuesday looks to start showery but should see any rain move
out with some clearing in the afternoon. The places that do
clear and break into warm sector will be in the low 60s to
around 70, mainly the S half of NH and interior SW ME. In the
mtns, and E ME as well as the ME coast highs will only be in the
50s.

After Tuesday 500 MB zonal flow should support sfc ridging right
through Thursday, providing fair day and nights with highs in
the upper 50s and 60s and mins upper 30s to mid 40s. Next chance
of showers is Friday as weak wave moves through the 500 MB zonal
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term... Mainly VFR today through Monday. Winds will turn
out of the NW this morning with gusts to 35 kts through the day.
Winds will relax this evening and become light and variable
overnight.


Long Term...VFR transitions to some MVFR-IFR Mon night into
Tuesday morning in showers and low cigs, then VFR through
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front pushes offshore early this morning
with NW winds ramping up through sunrise. Winds will gust to
Gale Force over the outer waters through today with winds
relaxing this evening. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds
tonight into Monday.

Long Term...Winds will stay below SCA levels Mon night through
Thursday, although could see S winds get close to 25 kt Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite cool temps today...RH values will be very dry and winds
will be gusty. Dewpoints may fall into the single digits and
result in min RH around 15-25 percent south of the mountains.
Northwest winds may be sustained in excess of 20 mph and gusting
over 45 mph at times during the day. Some recent wetting rains
have occurred over Maine and northern NH while southern NH
missed out. Further drying of fuels is likely today.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-018>028-033.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ109>111.
NH...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NHZ001>006-
     008>010-012>014.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for NHZ023>026.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151-
     153.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cempa/Tubbs