376
FXUS61 KGYX 151756
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
156 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will slowly move east
through the end of the week while an upper low over the Canadian
Maritimes may spread some showers into the area Thursday. High
pressure moves closer to overhead Friday before settling south
of New England this weekend starting a warming trend. A frontal
system approaches early next week bringing the next chance for
rain early next week. An upper low looks to hang around through
the middle of next week, keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAA continues overnight and will keep the boundary layer mixed
enough for some northwest breeze to linger thru the night. With
wind stirring the low levels I have neither frost nor fog in the
forecast. But the CAA will allow temps to fall into the 30s and
maybe even some upper 20s in the northern valleys anyway.

More interesting for some will be the forecast in the western ME
mtns late tonight into early Thu. As temps continue to fall an
area of low level moisture will spill into the North Woods down
to the upper Kennebec River Valley. Lift will be primarily
driven by upslope...but forecast soundings are mostly saturated
below freezing and thru the snow growth zone. So do not be
surprised to see a few flakes falling from the sky in the early
morning darkness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thu will be another gusty day with northwest CAA continuing.
Bufkit forecast soundings show mixing heights reaching into the
low level wind max around 30 to 35 kt...especially south of the
mtns. I feel pretty comfortable that frequent gusts in the upper
20s to low 30s kt will be observed Thu so I bumped up the NBM
forecast with some of the 90th percentile guidance and the
15.12z HRRR. It will also feel rather chilly in those
winds...with highs staying the 40s and 50s.

With high pressure exerting more control over the region winds
will drop soon after sunset Thu. Temps will again be in the 30s
with pockets of upper 20s...so I expect some patchy frost but
not enough confidence for an advisory for zones that are still
active.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Overview: A ridge builds in behind a departing upper
low bringing a stretch of dry weather for the end of the work
week and through the weekend. The next feature of note, will be
vertically stacked low pressure moving through the area early
next week. Models suggest this low may cutoff and hang around,
keeping the pattern unsettled through the middle of next week.

Impacts and Key Messages:
* Temperatures trend above normal through the weekend
* While too early to resolve specific details, a notable
  disturbance looks to arrive early next week.

Details: Friday: Vertically stacked low pressure departs to the
east Friday and with high pressure on its heels a tight
gradient will remain through the morning hours, particularly on
the coast where gusts 25-30 mph likely continue. The pressure
gradient will be easing through the day with noticeably calmer
conditions by the evening. A ridge building in at 500mb clears
the sky and allows temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to
low 60s south of the mountains, and into the low to mid-50s to
the north. Winds eventually calm overnight, allowing
temperatures to fall into the mid-to upper 20s north of the
mountains, and into the low to mid 30s through the foothills.
Closer to the coast a breeze may hang on keeping those locations
in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Saturday and Sunday: A ridge looks to be firmly in place over
the region through the weekend. This continues the mostly clear
skies and also the warming trend. Southwesterly flow at 850mb
warms the airmass to around +6-8C Saturday, peaking on Sunday at
around 10C. This should equate to surface temperatures in the
low to mid-60s south of the mountains, and in the upper 50s to
low 60s to the north on Saturday, with Sunday featuring
temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s south and in the low to
mid-60s north. This warmer airmass keeps low temperatures in the
mid- to upper 30s Saturday night, with low 40s hanging on at
the coastline. Clouds begin to build in Sunday evening as a
potent trough approaches the region. This likely results in low
temperatures only falling into the low to mid 40s areawide, with
some upper 40s in portions of the coastal plain.

Monday-Wednesday: Taking an early look at next weeks system,
there are a couple things to note. The spread in the location of
the low pressure center is large in the ensembles and this is
resulting in about a 24-hr difference in precipitation arrival
in the deterministics. The GFS breaks up the event racing a
front through on Monday, with the secondary coastal low
developing much later toward midweek. This would be an initially
drier solution, with the slug coming later and overall with
more QPF. The Euro has more support for the initial trough
cutting off and becoming a vertically stacked low over the
Delmarva Peninsula, as well as a secondary inside running low.
This would be the slower solution with precipitation holding off
until Tuesday. The two lows phase, but the Euro favors a weaker
system overall and is drier. However, the second thing to note
here is that we are not exactly talking about a soaker. Ensemble
probabilities for greater than an inch are quite low in the GFS
and Euro suite (30-50%), with LREF 25th-75th percentile
differences around 0.75-1". Long story short, we will have to
wait for better agreement to sort out the details, but with all
signs pointing toward some form of an upper low hanging over the
region, we are looking at a dreary start to next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Largely VFR conditions expected from here on out.
Surface wind gusts around 25 to 30 kt will continue into the
evening before diminishing to a steady northwest breeze
overnight. Gusts pick up again Thu and will once again be near
30 kt at times. Will have to watch for some MVFR CIGs backing
into the Midcoast region...but at this moment I keep the
forecast VFR. Winds diminish again Thu night.

Long Term...VFR looks to be the dominant condition Friday
through the weekend as high pressure settles over the region.
Wind gusts remain breezy with coastal terminals around 20-25kts
and inland terminals around 15-20kts. Wind gusts should relax
around 00Z Saturday. Ceilings thicken and lower Sunday night as
a disturbance approaches the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty winds have arrived behind the cold front and
will continue thru Thu night. A period of marginal gale force
wind gusts is anticipated beginning Thu afternoon into Thu
night...so gale watches have been converted to gale warnings.
The SCA in the bays has also been extended thru Thu night.

Long Term...SCA conditions last through at least the day
Saturday. Wind gusts fall below 25kts Friday afternoon, but wave
heights continue to hover around 5ft. We may get a brief period
of sub-SCA conditions Sunday, but seas will quickly build back
to around 5ft during the day Monday. These wave heights along
with wind gusts 20- 25kts, look to stick around through the
middle of next week as low pressure passes over the waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150-
     152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Legro
LONG TERM...Baron