119
FXUS61 KGYX 162220
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog along with some drizzle will make a repeat
performance tonight, especially along the coast. Tuesday will
be a much cooler and cloudier day with a few showers and drizzle
at times. Conditions improve some Wednesday as the onshore flow
turns more southerly. Warmer temperatures are expected along
with a chance of late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front approaches on Thursday with higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Friday and the weekend will be drier
but a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
620 PM Update...Just minor changes to temperatures and dewpoints
to keep aligned with observations. The forecast remains on track
with fog and drizzle expected to develop later tonight.

Previous Discussion...
Tonight will once again be cool and somewhat moist as easterly
flow around offshore high pressure continues. This will likely
mean the redevelopment of fog and perhaps some drizzle,
especially on the coastal plain. Lows will mainly be in the
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low level onshore flow and deep layer WAA continues on Tuesday.
This should set the stage for a less than stellar day with
plenty of clouds along with a few light showers and drizzle.
Lowered high temperatures a good 5-10 degrees south and east of
the mountains as clouds and low level easterly flow will cap
temperatures. A few rounds of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night as the WAA pattern
strengthens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday morning will start out cloudy for much of the area with
some fog/drizzle and a few showers mixed in. Fog should lift
through mid-morning, except lasting a little longer along the
coast, and then forecast soundings suggest mixing out the low
clouds with partly sunny skies going into the afternoon. A low
pressure passing to the north will leave a weak front draped
across the area, which will aid in scattered showers developing
in the afternoon, mostly in the mountains, along with a few
storms. These will mostly fizzle out in the evening, and then
based on the light southerly flow continuing, will probably see
a return of fog and low stratus overnight that lingers into
Thursday morning.

A more potent cold front approaches on Thursday, and once the low
clouds and fog lift in the morning, it looks to be a hot day with
temperatures away from the coast reaching the mid 80s to low 90s
based on sounding profiles, perhaps mid 90s in NH. This front
will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area, with the
highest chances being across western and northern locations at
this time, and some storms have the potential to be strong to
severe depending on the timing of the front. There are lesser
chances of storms to the south and east of the I-95 corridor
where the seabreeze is more likely to bring in the more stable
marine layer.

The cold front quickly passes Thursday night with it becoming breezy
either late Thursday night or Friday morning and then continuing
during the day Friday. At this point in time, I have trended the
forecast higher than the NBM on wind gusts, but these may need to be
bumped up more in the future. Forecast soundings suggest 30-40 mph,
but there may be a window where gusts could top out in the 40-50 mph
range, per the top of the mixed layer. High temperatures will come
down from those of Thursday, but still expecting it to be warm with
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

A 500mb high becomes centered over the southeast US with the ridge
axis extending northward across the Great Lakes on Saturday and
then across much of the eastern US by Sunday. While this will
bring generally dry weather here, it doesn`t mean that the
weekend will be completely dry as being on the eastern periphery
of an upper ridge can sometimes bring waves in on the northwest
flow. The operational GFS/ECMWF are latching onto a shortwave
in what almost would resemble an MCS sometime over the weekend,
but there is much disagreement on the timing and location of the
wave this far out other than the possibility is there.

Going into early next week, there is a growing signal in the global
models for a strong ridge of high pressure to further expand over
the eastern CONUS. Whether or not it extends far enough north
into New England to keep any waves in the west to northwest flow
and precip chances north of the area remains to be seen, but
there is more confidence in bringing in very warm to hot
conditions. With the 850mb temperatures being advertised, highs
could get into the 80s to low 90s Monday and then possibly
hotter just beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR is expected this evening but areas of IFR or
lower are expected again tonight in marine fog and stratus. Some
of this may burn off Tuesday but it will be tougher to do so
with deeper low level moisture in place. Thinking IFR will be
present most of the day on the coastal plain. IFR everywhere
Tuesday night with showers and CHC thunder.

Long Term...Quite a few opportunities for flight restrictions
Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday morning could feature some
lingering showers but more likely IFR to LIFR stratus as well as
fog. Conditions improve through the afternoon, but there will
be additional chances for showers and a few storms. A similar
story is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with
LIFR to IFR conditions with low stratus and fog possible with
improvement during the day. A cold front does approach and
brings another chance of showers and storms during the day
Thursday evening and then diminishing in the evening. Behind the
front, sites with any restrictions will return to VFR with west
winds picking up Thursday night into Friday with some potential
for gusts 30-35 kt. Mainly VFR Friday through Saturday with a
few showers possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Fair conditions thru Tue night under high
pressure. Areas of fog will be possible near the coastline this
morning and again tonight. Small craft conditions are not
expected in the short term but a few 20-23 kt gusts will be
possible Tue night on the ocean waters.

Long Term...Southerly flow continues Wednesday (below SCA levels) with
high pressure to the east and low pressure passing to the north. A
cold front then approaches Thursday and crosses later in the day or
Thursday night and may reach SCA criteria that last through portions
of Friday. Another weak front may cross on Friday before high
pressure builds in south of the waters to start the weekend,
offering improving conditions. Another weak low may approach the
waters around Sunday. Also expect fog to continue at times over the
waters through Thursday or Thursday night until the front
passes.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Baron/Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Combs