Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
672 FXHW60 PHFO 261507 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 507 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Nolo remains nearly stationary south of the Big Island, but is expected to make a turn to the west this morning. The remains a chance for flooding over portions of the Big Island and Maui today. Localized strong and gusty winds are possible across all islands, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island and along the ridges on Maui. && .DISCUSSION... Hurricane Nolo remains about 145 miles south of the Big Island as it remained nearly stationary throughout the night. The mid level trough remained firmly in place preventing Nolo from beginning its westward track. As a mid-level ridge north of the islands pushes southward, it will help Nolo to begin its westward track. With Nolo remaining nearly stationary, tropical headlines remain unchanged, as does the Flood Watch for Maui County and the Big Island. Despite the headlines remaining the same, the forecast has been updated to reflect the latest track of Nolo, but with no discerniblechanges to the winds for today. Most of the changes relate to the QPF for today and tonight, with a downward trend reflecting in the forecast. The Wind Advisory for Kauai and Oahu is in effect through tomorrow afternoon. Upper level clouds continue to stream over the Big Island and are at times passing over Maui County from Nolo. Lower clouds remain over the southeast and east sides of the Big Island, with showers embedded within. The highest gages reported 4 inches overnight on the Big Island, and about 1 inch on Maui. Winds have been strongest over the Kohala ridgeline on the Big Island, and over the West Maui Mountains on Maui, with gusts over 60 mph. The forecast was nudged to the NBM starting Monday onwards. The mid level trough mentioned above will help to draw Nolo north and then northwestward early next week. At this time the forecast keeps Nolo west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light south- to- southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially. && .AVIATION... Gusty trade winds peaking between 25 to 35 knots continue across the islands. Winds are expected to increase during the day with the potential for gusts as high as 45 knots this afternoon/evening. Locally stronger winds are possible from Molokai to the Big Island due to Hurricane Nolo. North of Molokai, occasional trade showers and temporary reductions in visibility/ceilings continue across windward and mauka areas. Showers from Hurricane Nolo continued across the Big Island overnight bringing temporary periods of MVFR-IFR conditions. Additional rounds of showers are forecast today, so expect temporary reductions in visibility and ceiling heights (MVFR-IFR conditions) as stronger showers move over the island. Scattered showers will extend northwards from the Big Island to Molokai with temporary MVFR-IFR conditions possible if a stronger shower is able to develop. AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR conditions across the eastern Big Island. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui tonight. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue through the forecast period. An AIRMET has been issued for surface winds greater than 30 knots due to Hurricane Nolo for the Big Island, Maui, Lanai, and Molokai. This will remain in effect through at least this evening amd may need to be extended to include the rest of the state. TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET. && .MARINE... Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo begins to accelerate slowly westward today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remaining waters today. The Gale Watch for waters around Oahu and Kauai has been trimmed back to tonight and Sunday as confidence has decreased somewhat in widespread gale force winds developing across the coastal waters. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Hawaiian Islands, centered well outside of the coastal waters this weekend, but strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away from the storm itself. The hurricane will gain distance from the islands as it begins to turn northwest by early next week, leading to more limited impacts by Monday. A combination of southeast swell originating from Hurricane Nolo and strengthening easterly trade winds is producing advisory level surf for east facing shores of Kauai and Oahu, and east and southeast facing shores of Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island today. Advisory level surf is expected to continue through Sunday, for which the High Surf Advisory remains in effect. By that point, Nolo will gain some distance from the islands to the southwest, leading to less direct swell impacts and weakening trade winds, which will decrease east and southeast shore surf below advisory criteria. A series of small, medium-period east swells are expected from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo in the East Pacific next week. South facing shores can expect a moderate bump to surf as Hurricane Nolo tracks south of the islands through at least the weekend. A small, long period northwest swell also fills in this weekend and brings a small bump to north facing shores into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds will remain strong and gusty over the highest terrain of the Big Island and Maui, and gusty trades over Oahu and Kauai. The rainfall on the Big Island will likely mitigate fire danger over most areas. From Kauai to Maui County, rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement in fuels, but the gusty trade winds will produce moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas through the weekend. Drier conditions are expected early next week, although winds will diminish substantially as pressure gradient weakens. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains- Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kauai East-Kauai South- Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala. Flood Watch through this afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala. Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala. Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona. Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel. Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters- Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters. Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...M Ballard AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Quesada FIRE WEATHER...M Ballard