113
FXHW60 PHFO 120616
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
816 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier trade winds will prevail into early next week with light
showers on the windward side of the islands. A weak disturbance
will lift out of the deep tropics towards the middle of next week
bringing a slight uptick in trades, increased humidity, and a
better chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening satellite water vapor imagery shows a large upper level
low well northeast of the state and generally dry northwest flow
aloft as a weak short wave moves southeast over the area. A band
of showers that developed in remnant moisture west of the Big
Island is slowly progressing eastward, but is forecast to
dissipate overnight as the moisture fizzles out.

Drier air in prevailing trade winds will continue through the
weekend. Low-elevation dew points have already fallen into the mid
to upper 60s across most of the islands. Typical trades weather is
expected over the next few days with occasional light showers
across the windward side of the islands each day.

A tropical disturbance currently several hundred miles southeast
of Hilo will move northwestward over the next several days. NHC
forecast holds at a 20% chance of development into a tropical
cyclone over the next 7 days. Most likely scenario is for this
feature to help pull tropical moisture into the area, though how
much and when will depend on its track. For now expect dew points
to increase once again with a small increase in trade winds and
higher precipitation chances towards the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Norbert is currently around 1900 miles ESE of
Hilo, moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Any potential arrival in
the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands is at least 10 days away.
Forecast uncertainty is characteristically high at that lead time
and it will be several days before confidence in impacts, or lack
thereof, improves.


&&

.AVIATION...
Lower to mid level low pressure centered approximately 1,100
miles northeast of the islands is disrupting the downstream
pressure gradient. This has resulted in light to moderate trades
that will persist through the weekend. Relatively drier air
working its way in across the state from the north northwest will
keep infrequent light showers away from many terminals. Lingering
moisture sticking over the eastern half of the island chain will
keep rain chances higher over HTO. Tempo MVFR categories will
occur within lowering decks as more organized rain clusters pass
across from the northeast. Winds may become light enough within
more wind-protected leeward areas to initiate local land and sea
breezes.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration on
Big Island through this evening, Sierra may need to be extended
as moisture lingers over that island Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east trade winds will
continue through the forecast period. A tropical disturbance
moving in from the trade winds may bring an increase of showers
to the coastal waters by next week Tuesday into Wednesday.

Surf along south facing shores will gradually decline through the
weekend as the small medium to long period energy slowly fades.
Currently a low in the south pacific near Australia and New
Zealand will bring the potential for a moderate long period swell
for Hawaii late next week.

East facing shores will also remain at small to moderate through
the forecast period due to the fresh to locally strong trade
winds. Flat to tiny surf along north facing shores is expected
through the forecast period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light
to moderate winds and the effects of recent rainfall, even as
afternoon relative humidity falls below 50 percent over many
leeward areas. Inversion heights are expected to remain elevated
or weak through Monday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SS
AVIATION...Blood
MARINE...Shigesato
FIRE WEATHER...SS